ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[KWT]

Quite possibly but if it does form further north then its heading right into the jaws of the ULL drezee, its best for this system to not gain any more latitude otherwise it will start getting sheared in a negative way.

[Derek Ortt]

for those wanting reliable info on the invest (such as for vacation purposes)... ASK IN THE PARALLEL THREAD IN TROPICAL ANALYSIS. it is far easier for a met to answer you there than here

[CalmBeforeStorm]

An interesting consequence of a upper low retrograding in front of a cyclone can change the course if it is deep enough. Examples:

Erin 1995 just prior to moving into FL it moved NNW in front of an upper low
Elena 1985 just look at the track

Or Chantal N of YUC they can be great steering mech's

~~~~~~~~~~~~~
It would all depend upon the direction and strength of the ULL. The GFS takes a weaker ULL to the west while the UKMET takes a stronger ULL to the SW. The UKMET's solution might kick a developing storm more northerly and eventually inhance it's development.

[Javlin]

An interesting consequence of a upper low retrograding in front of a cyclone can change the course if it is deep enough. Examples:

Erin 1995 just prior to moving into FL it moved NNW in front of an upper low
Elena 1985 just look at the track

Or Chantal N of YUC they can be great steering mech's

True, my point is that this thing may pull 94L further N, if there is a new low pressure under that ball of convection

Has to get to the W of the system for that to happen though;both counter clockwise motion.

had E instead of W

[ronjon]

yes indeed about a pull northward - the last runs of both the GFDL and HWRF induce a dramatic turn north with the HWRF near the south shore of western Cuba in two days. It appears these models might be responding to steering induced by the ULL.

[KWT]

It is interesting Ronjon, i didn't find that all that likely last night but if the center does form nearer to 14N I suppose it is possible. Very interesting invest this one, I suspect personally its going to be more then just an invest.

[PTrackerLA]

yes indeed about a pull northward - the last runs of both the GFDL and HWRF induce a dramatic turn north with the HWRF near the south shore of western Cuba in two days. It appears these models might be responding to steering induced by the ULL.

Could the convection already be reacting to this pull as it appears to be nudging more NW this morning?

[jasonc6573]

What time is recon scheduled for??

[cycloneye]

What time is recon scheduled for??

Is flying right now.See the recon thread.

[weatherguru18]

What time is recon scheduled for??

Wheels up already.

[Ed Mahmoud]

As an aside, to all those who think the GFDL model or talk of a Caribbean system really drives oil prices, I was just looking at the USO, and that is trading lower than it has in weeks, around $105.


And although I work for an oil company, I don't mind. My bosses still will make plenty of money with $2.50 or $3 gasoline if oil heads back closer to $100, and working class families will have it easier. And we'll be transferring less money to unfriendlies in Iran, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela.

[deltadog03]

I certainly welcome everyones opinion....I know I am wrong sometimes...You have to remember the shear is not really coming from he ULL at all. It was coming from mostly the Upper anti-cyclone to the west of 94L. 94L is moving into this favorable region of light winds that 95L was enjoying.

[coreyl]

Why is everybody debating whether it is being sheared or not? I am lost

[srainhoutx]

Now loop it...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

TUTT over SE/SC Bahamas. Ridge moving W in GOM. We know that there is an LLC that we have seen for days in variouus states. Looking interesting for us gomers.

Hmmm. Made this post last night at 9:15 PM and just seem to slip right on by some on the board.

[wxman57]

I might have been wrong with this one...

I told Bones to sit down and not say anything!

[srainhoutx]

I might have been wrong with this one...

I told Bones to sit down and not say anything!

Bones is sitting on his hands and his mouth is taped shut as well, ehhh

[butch]

000
WONT41 KNHC 181522
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1125 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

THIS STATEMENT CONCERNS TWO TROPICAL WEATHER SYSTEMS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER-ORGANIZED. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM HAS FORMED. ALL INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15-20 MPH. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST OFF THE COASTS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA IS ALSO BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM TODAY OR TOMORROW. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE COAST. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB

[Portastorm]

I might have been wrong with this one...

I told Bones to sit down and not say anything!

It might be time for you Wxman57 to find an image of Spock and Bones together, with Spock saying: "Dr. McCoy, that is illogical!"

[wxman57]

On a more serious note, the big question is how will the upper low dropping SW in 94's path influence it? Will it enhance lift and increase convection? Will it result in increased shear? I'm not sure. GFDL goes with the former and develops it almost instantly, thus the NW turn and path toward the Yucatan Channel. But if it doesn't develop quickly then it'll continue on a W-WNW track 280-290 deg. passing just north of Honduras on Sunday morning with a landfall near northern Belize. I'm inclined to go with the more southern track, as this is showing no sign of developing quickly today. The current burst of convection is due to the initial interaction with the upper low to its NW.

So let's say it crosses the central Yucatan Sunday and emerges into the SW Gulf Monday. Assuming it has an LLC going into the coast, and if that LLC survives the crossing, then conditions aloft appear to get more favorable for development with time. Could be looking at a hurricane threat between Tampico and Houston with an ETA of next Wednesday.

[srainhoutx]

Thanks for your imput Chris and Derek. Looks interesting for a lot of folks over the weekend.