ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[miachele]

When is this thing going to hit the Yucatan? Sun morn, Sun night, Monday??

Also, will it be pretty fast moving... or just hang out like Wilma did for a day or two?
Thanks.

Anyone??

[gatorcane]

You know it just goes to show how fragile these things really are. For as ferocious as these storms can be, they are very delicate. A little bit of sheer, they die. Waters not warm enough, they die. Too close to land, they can't establish a center. Just goes to show, it ain't easy to get them going and they are easy to kill, but once going they can be hell on wheels.

It's concerning in a way because here it is Friday. If we have a hurricane develop by Sunday, where is the warning? People are out and about and really don't watch the news. In a worse case scenerio, what if this thing ramps up to major status and threatens Texas early next week? I wonder if anybody in Houston or N.O. or Brownsville is paying attention to this thing?

It's got a LONG way to go before becoming a hurricane, no need to panic yet

[Normandy]

Why is SHIPS forecasting shear not the be a problem then? Do you think it is wrong? Not attacking you just asking for your thoughts on that.

Since the SHIP data is based on the operational GFS, it could be related to the fact that the GFS weakens the upper low as it moves SW into the W Caribbean, becoming a broad trough at H3 near 60 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/images/gfs_300_060l.gif

Personally, I doubt 94L will recover in the end from the shear over the next ~48 hours.

However, the wave axis will still be present; if convection is still present at that time, the synoptic environment would be more favorable for development.

So what I get from that is you don't think it that will happen. It is really interesting because a lot of mets analysis on this system is completely different from one another...You and some others believe the ULL will dive down into the W Caribbean, and others believe it will go westward and end up near the Texas coast.

[MiamiensisWx]

The ULL is NOT shearing the system...So, I respectfully dissagree with you. There may** be still a bit of shear, but the ULL is clearly helping vent this system. I posted something about this late last night about how the models shown an upper-anticyclone following this to the coast. (where ever landfall may be). There was shear present, but it what the outflow on the east side of the upper ridge and the cyclone.

Well, divergence (movement of wind from one location) can serve as shear as well in some cases.

The following portion is NOT an official prognosis.

Miachele, I personally don't expect development. However, if it does receive classification, it will likely be a weak TS at that time, in my view. It may arrive near the Yucatan around Monday.

[MiamiensisWx]

When is this thing going to hit the Yucatan? Sun morn, Sun night, Monday??

Also, will it be pretty fast moving... or just hang out like Wilma did for a day or two?
Thanks.

Anyone??

The following post is NOT an official prognosis.

Miachele, I personally don't expect development. However, if it does receive classification, it will likely be a weak TS at that time, in my view. It may arrive near the Yucatan around Monday.

I would still keep an eye on the official sources (TPC/NHC) for details, too.

[KWT]

The thing is MiamiensisWx I don't think the shear is damaging it right now, the western side may well have some higher shear but the convective mass further east still looks pretty strong near 70W and I think its obviously closer to being a depression then it was yesterday meaning it must have organised under this 'sheared' set-up over the last 12hrs.

got to love these systems that everyone disagrees about!

[gatorcane]

When is this thing going to hit the Yucatan? Sun morn, Sun night, Monday??

Also, will it be pretty fast moving... or just hang out like Wilma did for a day or two?
Thanks.

Anyone??

Miachele, I personally don't expect development. However, if it does receive classification, it will likely be a weak TS at that time, in my view. It may arrive near the Yucatan around Monday.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I am expecting development and more of a WNW to NW turn into the NW Caribbean. I think Cristobal is on the way. See my analysis on the models thread.

[Sanibel]

95L sucked the ULL SW and down in front of 94L. The western edge of 94L is currently showing a flat edge in reaction to the ULL.

This will be a lesson in ULL interaction on weak developing systems.

Is the ULL getting stronger, staying steady, or weakening?


The reason 94L didn't develop a clear LLC is because it was using all its energy fighting those inhibiting conditions.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I don't like to disagree with Miami, because he is right a lot more often than he is wrong, but I think, after viewing the Caribbean WV loop, is that not only is the likely core of 94L in the upward motion region of the ULL, the ULL is inducing a short wave anticyclone aloft over 94L.

[miachele]

Does WNW and NW include the Yucatan?
Thanks for your patience.

[Javlin]

One thought maybe though an Upper Level Lowas stated is in the upper atm?wereas our system is still lower in the atm?anything wrong w/that thought process?The ULL has gone from 20' to 18' in the last 6hrs http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html and movement appears SW-WSW.The dynamics with this one are very interesting

[cheezyWXguy]

Why doesnt anyone listen to the pro mets? Delta said that 94L isnt being sheared by the ULL, but its outflow is just being enhanced. Even Derek thinks he "might have been wrong with this one"

[NDG]

I see the broad low center near 13.9N & 71.6W

[Stratosphere747]

[KWT]

The one thnig that is noteable on the Wv is the sharp boundary between the systems convection and the SW airflow, i think about 73-74W marks where the higher shear is presently at.

[Portastorm]

One thought maybe though an Upper Level Lowas stated is in the upper atm?wereas our system is still lower in the atm?anything wrong w/that thought process?The ULL has gone from 20' to 18' in the last 6hrs http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html and movement appears SW-WSW.The dynamics with this one are very interesting

Very good point and that's what I'd like to know ... how can an ULL at 500 mb dramatically affect a system that is not even well-developed at the upper levels of the atmosphere to begin with? I could see a dramatic effect if 94L was a well-developed cyclone but it's not right now. I could see it preventing further vertical development but not necessarily killing off the system.

[drezee]

An interesting consequence of a upper low retrograding in front of a cyclone can change the course if it is deep enough. Examples:

Erin 1995 just prior to moving into FL it moved NNW in front of an upper low
Elena 1985 just look at the track

[Javlin]

An interesting consequence of a upper low retrograding in front of a cyclone can change the course if it is deep enough. Examples:

Erin 1995 just prior to moving into FL it moved NNW in front of an upper low
Elena 1985 just look at the track

Or Chantal N of YUC they can be great steering mech's

[drezee]

An interesting consequence of a upper low retrograding in front of a cyclone can change the course if it is deep enough. Examples:

Erin 1995 just prior to moving into FL it moved NNW in front of an upper low
Elena 1985 just look at the track

Or Chantal N of YUC they can be great steering mech's

True, my point is that this thing may pull 94L further N, if there is a new low pressure under that ball of convection

[tailgater]

Does WNW and NW include the Yucatan?
Thanks for your patience.

It could and probably would include the Yucatan but at this time Nothing is certain.