ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[alienstorm]

The ULL should ventiate and cause a northern component to the course, the question will be if the ULL is able to go to the SE of 94L than a track of NW and then back to the WNW will result is the ULL remains to the west of 94L then a track more of the NW or even NNW will result. I believe this is what some of the models are showing in their runs.

[KWT]

So Derek I take it you think the chances are pushing up again?

that Qscat really is close to having a closed circulation, its nearly there and I dare say that by the time recon gets in there we may well have a closed circulation.

Very interesting debate about the ULL and its direction as well ,some think it wil lhead westwards other thinks its getting pushed eastwards?

[MiamiensisWx]

The upper low is SHEARING 94L...

The people who "think" it is moving E should probably consult WV data.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[miachele]

When is this thing going to hit the Yucatan? Sun morn, Sun night, Monday??

Also, will it be pretty fast moving... or just hang out like Wilma did for a day or two?
Thanks.

[Frank2]

Sanibel,

The ULL (over Central Cuba) is dropping WSW, so, 94L will run likely right into it - sorry, Destructo...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Per the QuickScat, it's still an open wave (with some amplitude)...

[funster]

I might have been wrong with this one...

So there's a bearded lady in the Ms. America pageant?

The bearded lady is a finalist but she hasn't won yet.

[Javlin]

The upper low is SHEARING 94L...

The people who "think" it is moving E should probably consult WV data.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

Thats what I thought myself it's basically in the NW Quad.

[gatorcane]

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Conditions should only improve for 94L to develop. The Shear won't be a problem in about 24 hours IMHO. I think its likely to become Cristobal.

Look for possible "LLC" reformations to the center as the TUTT shears from South to North also.

[Normandy]

Why is SHIPS forecasting shear not the be a problem then? Do you think it is wrong? Not attacking you just asking for your thoughts on that.

[KWT]

Actually I don't think the upper low is really moving IMO, sure there is a 0plunge of drier air to the south around the western side and its curving towards the center. what I see is maybe the ULL strengthening given the illusion of a westwards movement.

Also Frank, its open according to Qscat but I relaly wouldn't be at all surprised if this doe shave a closed LLC.

[NDG]

The upper low is SHEARING 94L...

The people who "think" it is moving E should probably consult WV data.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

No is not currently shearing 94L. It is helping it get an outflow going, is the way I take it, otherwise it would had not looked this well this morning.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The upper low is SHEARING 94L...

The people who "think" it is moving E should probably consult WV data.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

You usually do much better analysis than I do, but what would be shearing a storm apart, if aimed just a hundred or so miles away, becomes instead an outflow jet and an upward motion region. What is fatal shear today may be outflow and divergence tomorrow.

And a center reformation a bit further East, where the storms are releasing a lot of latent heat, and evacuating air from near the surface, and not being as badly sheared, may be underway.


But I am far from certain on that point.


Moot point in 4 or 5 hours, when recon either closes a well defined center, or finds a vigorous but sheared wave.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html
No convergence again? Will this affect 94L in the short term?

[Sanibel]

WV loop does show SW direction for ULL. I should have looked at that closer.

The collision between this ULL and 94L will tell the story. 94L certainly won't do well by it. The further south 94L scoots under this and the weaker the ULL possibly gets the better for 94L. If 94L lifts straight into it it will be negatively impacted as far as development.

Depends on how strong 94L is before it hits the ULL. And how much 94L possibly affects the ULL.

[Stratosphere747]

I'll go with a WSW movement on that ULL and over the last few frames with a indication of a more westerly movement.

And I don't see the ULL "strengthening" so far either..

Huge factor on 94l...

[KWT]

I do think ther eis some shear on this system though it may be helping to fan the system a little bit further east. once again I personally don't think its moving west just strengthening and to do that its wrapping up the dry+moist air from the surrounding regions around its circulation.

I don't know Imay be wrong and the ULL may well be heading westwards but I don't think its heading westwards nearly as quickly as 94L mass of storms are heading.

[deltadog03]

The ULL is NOT shearing the system...So, I respectfully dissagree with you. There may** be still a bit of shear, but the ULL is clearly helping vent this system. I posted something about this late last night about how the models shown an upper-anticyclone following this to the coast. (where ever landfall may be). There was shear present, but it what the outflow on the east side of the upper ridge and the cyclone.

[gatorcane]

I do think ther eis some shear on this system though it may be helping to fan the system a little bit further east. once again I personally don't think its moving west just strengthening and to do that its wrapping up the dry+moist air from the surrounding regions around its circulation.

Again see ERNESTO. Very similar setup this time with the ULL. Models aren't good at handling a nearby ULL that is shearing a tropical system. I'm doubting this is just going to be a wave that will crash into Central America and move West all the way through the Caribbean.

[MiamiensisWx]

Why is SHIPS forecasting shear not the be a problem then? Do you think it is wrong? Not attacking you just asking for your thoughts on that.

Since the SHIP data is based on the operational GFS, it could be related to the fact that the GFS weakens the upper low as it moves SW into the W Caribbean, becoming a broad trough at H3 near 60 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/06/images/gfs_300_060l.gif

Personally, I doubt 94L will recover in the end from the shear over the next ~48 hours.

However, the wave axis will still be present; if convection is still present at that time, the synoptic environment would be more favorable for development.

[weatherguru18]

You know it just goes to show how fragile these things really are. For as ferocious as these storms can be, they are very delicate. A little bit of sheer, they die. Waters not warm enough, they die. Too close to land, they can't establish a center. Just goes to show, it ain't easy to get them going and they are easy to kill, but once going they can be hell on wheels.

It's concerning in a way because here it is Friday. If we have a hurricane develop by Sunday, where is the warning? People are out and about and really don't watch the news. In a worse case scenerio, what if this thing ramps up to major status and threatens Texas early next week? I wonder if anybody in Houston or N.O. or Brownsville is paying attention to this thing?