ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[KWT]

The one thing that is very evident to me is that way the convection is arched, you can clearly see at the very least there is a broad circulation with this system. You can also clearly see the inflow setting up though as others have said south America s currently severely limiting the inflow.

cheezyWXguy, that may well be the case I haven't really had a good look to be honest.

tolakram, its certainly possible though convection has been more impressive the n in recet days I have to admit.

[miachele]

We're going to be SOUTH of Cancun all next week (leaving Sunday).
Is 94L the only thing we need to be worried about - or is there something else lurking behind it out in the Atlantic?
Thanks... someone please answer... I've asked this a few times already.

I'm a mom leaving 3 kids behind for this vacation... this momma needs to get back home safe!

Thanks guys!

[cycloneye]

reformed further north.

That looks to be the case,but soon recon will find out.

[Ed Mahmoud]

What is the policy on Bones saying something is dead, when it was dead at the time and remained dead for at least 3 days afterwards?



I'm thinking we need a new graphic, when something has no shot for 3 or 4 days, but might eventually have a chance down the road. Something like "he/she/it is in a drug induced coma, Jim".

best I could do at work. When I get home I'll make a much better one.

I hope to impress Mr. Waxman57...I like doughnuts...hint hint.

cant see it...lol

From the URL, it appears to be from 'Young Frankenstein'.

[gatorcane]

reminds me of Ernesto some....the ULL is inducing shear which is causing reformations of the center more north and hence possibly the ultimate track.

[cheezyWXguy]

We're going to be SOUTH of Cancun all next week (leaving Sunday).
Is 94L the only thing we need to be worried about - or is there something else lurking behind it out in the Atlantic?
Thanks... someone please answer... I've asked this a few times already.

I'm a mom leaving 3 kids behind for this vacation... this momma needs to get back home safe!

Thanks guys!

No, theres nothing behind it

[Frank2]

The ULL to the NW is ventilating the wave, so, that's perhaps the reason for the flare-up this morning...

It still looks like a wave more than anything...

As Derek said, the ULL is going to make for some very hostile conditions...

Just remember that each season is unique unto itself...

[wxsouth]

The morning quickscat did NOT show a center over land. It shows a sharp trough extending north into the convection from the South American Coast. The low res version seem to allude to a sfc low near/on the coast...but the high res version clearly shows a sharp trough and no closed circulation.

My guess would be the main center will eventually form near the northern part of the trough...near 14N.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur_hires/zooms/WMBas88.png

[MiamiensisWx]

The following post is NOT an official prognosis.

Firstly, land itself is not an issue for systems close to South America and other regions. It is an egregious assumption; many TCs have actually developed in the vicinity if the synoptic/thermodynamic environment favors tropical cyclogenesis at the time. The historical records and other sources suggest that development in this region is plausible, especially if the South American heat low is not a factor at the time.

Although additional convection has been developing throughout the morning, I strongly suspect that it is corrobated with strong divergence in the area and the unstable boundary layer, as I mentioned yesterday on another site. The divergence is contributing to significant ascent in the vicinity, resulting in continuous development of thunderstorms. The upper low to the NW over the southern Bahamas/Cuba at H3 has not "developed"; it has been present over the past several days, and it has been enhancing upper level divergence/shear over 94L. As I mentioned, this is clearly detrimental to 94L; 94L is not intensifying or deepening, but it is experiencing the effects of the upper low. Don't focus on the convection itself. On GOES IR loops, note that convection on the western flank is dissipating as the wave axis to the east moves west. The convection is dissipating because it is 1) "knocked down" at the tops by the strong upper level winds and 2) it is leaving the region of greatest ascent provided by the strong divergence. Note that the convection is continually developing in one location on IR just downstream of the strongest upper level divergence field. The greatest ascent is concentrated in this region. Here is a good tutorial for reference, which states that "the upper divergence usually DOES NOT create a localized ascent maximum concentrated directly under the upper-level divergence field."

It is clear that the upper low will continue to move SW into the W Caribbean Sea as progged by several models, which will likely serve as a lethal factor for 94L's development prospects in the short to medium term. Since 94L will clearly remain shallow, a track toward the Yucatan Peninsula and mainland Mexico is very probable, since 94L is associated with a west moving tropical wave axis. We would need a well defined LLC and a deeper system to even consider the northward solutions depicted by the GFDL, some BAM suites, and others; even if a deeper system occurred, the large upper ridge over mainland Mexico would likely still result in a westward turn toward that area well south of the CONUS. Regardless, 94L will very likely not develop in the end.

[lrak]

can you hear me now? I mean see it now?

[cycloneye]

According to the latest SHIP forecast shear will not be a big problem.

Code: Select all

SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *      INVEST  AL942008  07/18/08  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120

SHEAR (KTS)       23    17    10    12    11    10    12     6     2     7     8     6    14

[Sanibel]

As Derek said, the ULL is going to make for some very hostile conditions...

The ULL appears to be pinched and pushed more east. This should let 94L get past it. 94L has enough momentum now to endure moderate ULL shear before entering the latent waters in the western Caribbean. I could be wrong.

[BigA]

The above image looks like an almost closed circulation around 14 north, with a lot of fairly high wind vectors north of that.

[Derek Ortt]

I might have been wrong with this one...

[MiamiensisWx]

The following post is NOT an official prognosis.

Firstly, land itself is not an issue for systems close to South America and other regions. It is an egregious assumption; many TCs have actually developed in the vicinity if the synoptic/thermodynamic environment favors tropical cyclogenesis at the time. The historical records and other sources suggest that development in this region is plausible, especially if the South American heat low is not a factor at the time.

Although additional convection has been developing throughout the morning, I strongly suspect that it is corrobated with strong divergence in the area and the unstable boundary layer, as I mentioned yesterday on another site. The divergence is contributing to significant ascent in the vicinity, resulting in continuous development of thunderstorms. The upper low to the NW over the southern Bahamas/Cuba at H3 has not "developed"; it has been present over the past several days, and it has been enhancing upper level divergence/shear over 94L. As I mentioned, this is clearly detrimental to 94L; 94L is not intensifying or deepening, but it is experiencing the effects of the upper low. Don't focus on the convection itself. On GOES IR loops, note that convection on the western flank is dissipating as the wave axis to the east moves west. The convection is dissipating because it is 1) "knocked down" at the tops by the strong upper level winds and 2) it is leaving the region of greatest ascent provided by the strong divergence. Note that the convection is continually developing in one location on IR just downstream of the strongest upper level divergence field. The greatest ascent is concentrated in this region. Here is a good tutorial for reference, which states that "the upper divergence usually DOES NOT create a localized ascent maximum concentrated directly under the upper-level divergence field."

It is clear that the upper low will continue to move SW into the W Caribbean Sea as progged by several models, which will likely serve as a lethal factor for 94L's development prospects in the short to medium term. Since 94L will clearly remain shallow, a track toward the Yucatan Peninsula and mainland Mexico is very probable, since 94L is associated with a west moving tropical wave axis. We would need a well defined LLC and a deeper system to even consider the northward solutions depicted by the GFDL, some BAM suites, and others; even if a deeper system occurred, the large upper ridge over mainland Mexico would likely still result in a westward turn toward that area well south of the CONUS. Regardless, 94L will very likely not develop in the end.

...and the upper low over the S Bahamas is certainly not moving E. It is moving slowly SW.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[DESTRUCTION5]

I might have been wrong with this one...

Man you just killed everything Frank was living for today...LMAO

[Javlin]

If I am not mistaken an ULL needs to to the NE and SW of a system to enhance the outflow.The other Quads actually are pressing against the system.

[PTrackerLA]

I might have been wrong with this one...

So there's a bearded lady in the Ms. America pageant?

[NDG]

My guess is that the recon will find a closed low, might still be broad, with a developing LLC, with the SW quadrant still could be weak, though why QS might had not picked up the light NW winds that Aruba reported earlier this morning.

[Comanche]

I might have been wrong with this one...

care to elaborate?