ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[KWT]

The thing is with the track and movement right now it is all dependant on exactly where the low forms. If it gets going further east then it does become possibly more of a Texas threat whilst if it gets going further west it may not be so much of a threat. All big question marks with 94L...certainly is a very interesting little system to watch and see how its evolved.

Sanibel, well the only issue is does it have a tight LLC or not however I do agree it does look better then it has done recently.

[Comanche]

from Jeff Lindner-

Potential for tropical cyclone to form in the Caribbean Sea over the next 12-24 hours.



Model consensus and upper air steering indicates a threat to the Gulf of Mexico.



Current:



Radar data from Aruba indicates that 94L maintains a broad low level circulation just to the north of the ABC islands. Satellite and radar images show that thunderstorms have greatly increased this morning and a tropical depression may be forming. USAF aircraft will be launched early this afternoon to check to see if a closed surface low has formed. Upper air conditions will become increasingly favorable for intensification as the system moves to the W and then the WNW over the next 48 hours over the western Caribbean Sea.



Track:



Model guidance has a large spread this morning with the eventual track of 94L. Track guidance maintains a general WNW track for the next 48 hours as low to mid level ridging is maintained north of the system. As the system reaches the Yucatan area the ridging over the Gulf is forecast to weaken as a TUTT low moves westward into TX creating a weakness in the mid level ridging over the NW Gulf of Mexico. It appears that 94L will feel this weakness and begin to turn toward the NW as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico late this weekend or early next week. The GFDL shows a category 2 hurricane moving into the central Gulf of Mexico in a strong recurve pattern early next week with a final heading of 360 degrees (due N) and threat to SE LA and New Orleans. All of the other guidance including the CMC and GFS show a more westward track and slower recurve with threats to TX and Mexico. The CMC brings a strong hurricane toward the mouth of the Rio Grande River while the GFS brings a weak system toward the middle TX coast.



We could see a strong tropical storm or hurricane in the southeast Gulf of Mexico early next week.



Intensity:



The GFDL and SHIPS intensity models make 94L a hurricane early next week with support from other intensity models. The GFS and new HWRF hurricane model show no real development of 94L and the GFS has suggested this the entire life cycle of 94L…and so far it has been correct. Given very favorable conditions in the western Caribbean Sea and the forecasted slow down of the fast forward motion we should see some development. SST’s are very warm with good heat content water so if the inner core can consolidate the potential is at hand for rapid intensification. Once in the Gulf of Mexico the only hindering factor might be weak SW wind shear on the east side of the S TX TUTT…but this low may be too far west by then to have much impact. Gulf water temps. are in the mid to upper 80’s with near shore water temps. in the low 90’s.



Residents along the Gulf coast should review their hurricane preparation procedures and make sure their hurricane supplies are fully stocked for this hurricane season and keep a close watch on this system over the weekend.



Anyone needing evacuation assistance in the event evacuations are needed needs to register with 211 before H-72.

[HURAKAN]

Looks Impressive.

[O Town]

Looking a lot more symmetrical this morning.




Isn't that a ULL developing over Cuba? Looks like its moving south toward 94L.
I think thats helping enhance 94.?

[Ed Mahmoud]

We sort of know what WxMan57 thinks. I am waiting for the other pro-met that frequently comments on the tropics, Derek Ortt, also the only pro-met who regularly visits sports forums, and our dedicated approved analyst, Miamisensiwx (sp?) to weigh in, as their analyses usually are quite good.

[PTrackerLA]

Very deep convection occuring this morning. Could today finally be the day?

[KWT]

Yeah I think that is a ULL, Derek believe that is going to eventually re-introduce really hostile conditions for this invest and weakening it again but we shal have to wait and see. Looks likes its helping 96L as well.

[gboudx]

Thanks Comanche. :thumbsup:

[Sanibel]

Sanibel, well the only issue is does it have a tight LLC or not however I do agree it does look better then it has done recently.

I've been tracking these things for years. In 24 hours this will be moot.

[HURAKAN]

Very deep convection occuring this morning. Could today finally be the day?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm pretty sure of so.

[Sanibel]

Once 94L gets that southern feeder band back over water instead of South America...

[Ed Mahmoud]

I broke out a box of the NASA satellite cake mix, as I didn't quite like the NOAA Nesdis SSD 94L floater, and baked my own visible floater loop.


It does look better, and while I can't really see the low cloud elements well enough to really have a good feel for a center, but knowing what the Netherland Antilles radar was showing earlier, the center may be consolidating near 14.2ºN, 69.8ºW.


Hand crafted satellite loop made with genuine NASA cake mix.

[cheezyWXguy]

Yeah I think that is a ULL, Derek believe that is going to eventually re-introduce really hostile conditions for this invest and weakening it again but we shal have to wait and see. Looks likes its helping 96L as well.

I think this actually the TUTT low thats supposed to move west and create the weakness that will turn 94L to the NW. Jeff Linder mentioned this in his email on the previous page and doesnt think it will have a huge effect on intensity.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-vis.html

I think this thing is taking off now and it will really get organized within 24 hours as it clears the influence of South America. You can see a wrapping of clouds to the north and some banding features and all that is lacking is inflow from the south currently being blocked by land. This will be a TS by late tonight IMO.

[HURAKAN]

[PTrackerLA]

Very impressive visible shot. If these keeps up through today I believe we're off to the races...

[lrak]

can't get it to work ack!

I like doughnuts.

[cheezyWXguy]

What is the policy on Bones saying something is dead, when it was dead at the time and remained dead for at least 3 days afterwards?



I'm thinking we need a new graphic, when something has no shot for 3 or 4 days, but might eventually have a chance down the road. Something like "he/she/it is in a drug induced coma, Jim".

best I could do at work. When I get home I'll make a much better one.

I hope to impress Mr. Waxman57...I like doughnuts...hint hint.

cant see it...lol

[Normandy]

Now that the clouds over the SA coast have become less thick, I'm starting to be able to see the low level cloud movements over the coast, and they don't see any type of cloud motions showing a center where the QSCAT was. Might be my bad eyes, but its very hard to pick any low center out over the coast. Either this is still an open wave or the circulation perhaps reformed further north.

[tolakram]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

In my opinion there's still too much shear. Look at those cloud tops blowing off to the south. While I agree it looks good I think the shear will win and it will go poof this afternoon.