ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Normandy]

Looking at the loops I am starting to question some things regarding the future of this system. For one, the low level circulation is inland per QSCAT and that would place it pretty far south of most of the convection. Despite this satellite has suggested this has gotten better organized....I do wonder if the LLC will reform under the heaviest convection, I think that is its only real shot IMO.

[txag2005]

Oh I did want to point out, I am from Houston. Hopefully if it forms and hits Cancun and then enters the GOM, I don't get struck twice!!! What a week that would be....

[coreyl]

Hey everyone. I just want to say thanks for all the info over the last couple days preping for my trip. I actually feel a little better about heading into the likely path of this thing if it develops. This is all new to me, but based on your comments, the resorts down there (including the one I'm going to apparently) are built to withstand this thing, and we are unlikely going to see anything bigger than a smaller hurricane I imagine on the Yucatan.

Thanks again, and I'll be checking throughout the next few days!

Have a great trip and take lots of pics. You'll have a great time.

So it looks like the LLC is over land?

[jasons2k]

I don't know if Jeff Lindner's morning update is anywhere but when I read his email it certainly raised my eyebrows.

[wxman57]

We may finally have a clear LLC developing near 14.7N & 70W.
Keep an eye on this area this morning.

I'm looking at obs overlaid on a satellite loop and I can't see a clear center. If there is one, I'm pretty sure it's west of 71W, perhaps as far west as 72W as of 8am CDT. Maybe 14N/71.5? Again, can't see anything there on visible, and that microwave image isn't too helpful with such a broad, weak circulation. The only difference I see from yesterday afternoon is thunderstorms are more concentrated, and that worries me.

I still don't buy a track toward the central Gulf. I think the models are too far right. Perhaps it will move inland near northern Belize on Sunday then cross the central to northern Yucatan and into the SW Gulf Monday. Most likely eventual landfall northern Mexico to mid TX. Wouldn't rule out farther south into central MX (Tampico). And I can't rule out any threat to LA. Too early to have much confidence. Need to have a better-defined low first. There does appear to be a moderate to strong ridge off the TX/LA coasts Sunday/Monday - at least according to the GFS.

[Normandy]

Latest IR frames are very impressive to say the least.

[Dionne]

Oh I did want to point out, I am from Houston. Hopefully if it forms and hits Cancun and then enters the GOM, I don't get struck twice!!! What a week that would be....

I hope you don't end up sleeping in an airport!!

[KWT]

Very interesting wxman57, the fact we do have a better concentration of storms and what looks like a better set-up ahead of it in regards to strengthening could well suggest this becomes an eventual developer?

I agree as well I can't see the central gulf threat being very likely, I think most likely towards the Mexico/Texas border area but who knows too far out.

[Ed Mahmoud]

What is the policy on Bones saying something is dead, when it was dead at the time and remained dead for at least 3 days afterwards?



I'm thinking we need a new graphic, when something has no shot for 3 or 4 days, but might eventually have a chance down the road. Something like "he/she/it is in a drug induced coma, Jim".

[NDG]

I feel that this system will give us the same forecasting problems that we had with Bertha, both intensity and track forecasts. This year we don't have the strong ML ridging we had last year, which made it very easy for forecast tracking. With this system I get the feeling that any unexpected intensification it will take advantage of the weaker ridge to take a more northward track, all I can say is stay tuned if you are in MX all the way to western FL.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[KWT]

haha Ed!

Colder cloud tops are forming further east but the western side of the ssytem where any center is more likely is showing signs of weakening. Still with probably just a broad low anywhere which develop a large deep area of convection could need watching.

As for track I agree with wxman57's main area that needs to be watched, I can't see it gonig anymore east of the regions he mentions.

[coreyl]

I was thinking this storm would never make it into the gulf. DANG

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The wave may be moving west but it seems 96L is already causing the energy to move NW. As I explained earlier this week GFS is progging a trough to move into the Great Lakes that will provide a weakness in the NW Caribbean and GOM, albeit temporary. 94L would have to deepen tough to feel this weakness.

I think the GOM may need to keep a close eye on this one, however, I need to do further analysis to see just how much of a threat 94L will be to the U.S.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I was thinking this storm would never make it into the gulf. DANG

And, except for possibly the Bay of Campeche, it may not. May not even make the Bay of Campeche.


For that matter, while it seems healthier today, it may never close off a circulation and just cruise West to Honduras.


Nothing is certain, but death and taxes.

[dkommers]

This was declared an invest on Sat night / early Sun. That is over 5 days as being an invest. I can't remember a storm in the past couple of years that hanged on this long as an invest without becoming dry bones or without developing further. Is there some record on the longest lasting invest?

[Sanibel]

It is showing signs of being a strong wave but also showing better signs of developing as well. More compact. The center is elusive as usual but there somewhere around 14.?N -70W You can see the surface spiral being drawn towards it. This one is obviously "no-look-back" because of its permanent IR and the potential of the area it is headed into that just bloomed 95L.

The red convection is pulsing, but permanent over the bursting center. 94L is slowly getting stronger than the surrounding synoptic and should bust out straight cyclone. Heading is now more WNW and towards more tropically latent waters.

[coreyl]

Is it still moving at like 20mph?

[gboudx]

I don't know if Jeff Lindner's morning update is anywhere but when I read his email it certainly raised my eyebrows.

Jason can you post it or PM it to me? I on one of his email lists, but apparently not the one you are referring to since I don't have anything from Jeff this morning.

Gracias.

[cheezyWXguy]

I don't know if Jeff Lindner's morning update is anywhere but when I read his email it certainly raised my eyebrows.

Jason can you post it or PM it to me? I on one of his email lists, but apparently not the one you are referring to since I don't have anything from Jeff this morning.

Gracias.

Could you do the same for me please? Im not on his email, but it sounds pretty interesting

[PTrackerLA]

Could someone post Jeff Linder's update or email? I always like to read what he has to say.