ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[NDG]

If LLC is found it could be very well be upgraded straight on up to TS Cristobal, IMO. Since tropical force winds are already found with this system just to the north.

[category5]

Yet, the graphic on the homepage still has the area in orange. I was expecting it to turn red with this update.

It is code red...the colors take longer to update...If you move your cursor over the area of interest the TWO wording will show and you can read it to see if it's the updated one or not, or just look at the time stamp on the left corner of the image.

[cycloneye]

[NDG]

NHC code red: this officially has a greater than 50% chance of becoming a tropical depression within 48 hours.

More like within 24hrs.

[Thunder44]

QS pass this morning shows the surface center may be further southwest than what we are seeing on radar:

[Smurfwicked]

NHC code red: this officially has a greater than 50% chance of becoming a tropical depression within 48 hours.

LOL, I guess I spoke too soon I see they did fix that just now.

[Normandy]

Very interesting Thunder44, but obs don't suggest that is where the center is....Aruba has been reporting WSW winds this morning indicating a center somewhere north of them.

[Thunder44]

Very interesting Thunder44, but obs don't suggest that is where the center is....Aruba has been reporting WSW winds this morning indicating a center somewhere north of them.

There winds were SW and they switched to the SSE at 9mph at 7am:

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TNCA.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

QS pass this morning shows the surface center may be further southwest than what we are seeing on radar:

Even myself this morning will admit that this now appears to a have a well defined LLC near 12 north/71 west. You don't get that strong of "sig" on quickscat that close to land if you don't. Looks like we may have a depression...Because I only see 30 knot winds within the quickscat.

[Normandy]

Ohhh ok my fault, yes that does indicate that the QS pass is right....I misread. Interesting that the low center formed that far south....that probably will change a lot with the model runs and raise the threat of a Belize/Nicaragua landfall. A low has to be very far south to actually sit over SA, thats rare.

[KWT]

Quite possibly that does sort of suggest a LLC right down at 12N. It also reduce the chances of making it to the GoH we will have to wait and see. This does look like its well on its way to being a depression, just need to wait for recon, NHC won't upgrade before recon IMO.

Yep just like the C system in 1996 ironically as well:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Cesar-Douglas

[NDG]

QS pass this morning shows the surface center may be further southwest than what we are seeing on radar:

Remember that the QS has not been doing too good with this system.

[cycloneye]

Remember that the QS has not been doing too good with this system.

What do you mean by not doing too good?

[NDG]

For the last couple of day it has not been picking up the circulation that surface observations have indicated and Reconn has found.

[HURAKAN]

A few hours ago.

[ROCK]

looking better and better......today will be interesting......already local media bringing up "trouble brewing in the tropics" headline......

[cycloneye]

That is more north than the other one that Thunder posted.

[KWT]

Hurakan what is that by the way?
Suggest this does have a closed low but north around 13.5 north.

ROCK, yep recon today is going to be very interesting to watch I feel!

[Dionne]

The GFDL spaghetti model is frightening. I hope it's wrong!!

[NDG]

Looking at the first Vis sat loop, the QS might be somewhat right, it is furhter south than I thought, but not as far south, closer to 13N, at least the ML circulation