ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[NDG]

Looking at the radar loop from Curacao, I still see broad low's cyclonic turning, right about where I placed the L

[Derek Ortt]

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

just look at the cloud motions

[Derek Ortt]

I agree derek.

Can you tell me the reason why these invests are getting going, but they don't get to become cyclones. What is the difference between this season and 2005 in these terms. Thank you.

the entire Caribbean is different this year

1. In 2005 you had a monsoon trough in the Caribbean
2. In 2005 you had a large anti-cyclone over the carib

Those are NOT normal conditions

Also, Matt... IT IS JULY. HAVE A LITTLE PATIENCE! Invests are supposed to not develop this month

[cheezyWXguy]

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/satellite/Carib/WV/atl_wv1_loop.gif

just look at the cloud motions

yeah thats been going on all of the last 2 days..that doesnt suggest that the environment wont begin to improve as early as tomorrow. Look at how quickly 95L organized in the environment where 94l is about to go. Btw, I dont believe this is organized or on the verge of td or anything like that. But the fact that the abundant reds on ir have stayed the whole day suggest that as conditions improve, this thing will be able to get its act together.

[NDG]

Come on Derek, just look at the radar loop, much better using it to look a the system than with the IR sat. You are going to tell me that you can see what is going on down there with the IR loop.

http://www.weather.an/product_images/high/ppi.html

[Brent]

2am TWO:

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA FROM CURACAO INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF CURACAO AND ARUBA. THIS SYSTEM
IS ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY SQUALLS MAINLY OVER WATER TO THE NORTH OF
THE LOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME BUT
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

[Derek Ortt]

one can tell general organization from IR imagery

This thing is spitting out massive outflow boundaries. That is a tell tale sign that there are no signs of organization

[cheezyWXguy]

one can tell general organization from IR imagery

This thing is spitting out massive outflow boundaries. That is a tell tale sign that there are no signs of organization

obviously not yet...how do you know that the next several days wont tell a different story? Even the NHC thinks so

[NDG]

It is already starting to get a break from the UL shear, direction of shear is starting to change and slow down. By the way on radar, I can see some bands starting to rotate around not so much shoot out as outflow boundaries.

[Chacor]

I think I have just one point to make.

Over the last few pages there's been hype that this thing will develop (some claim into a hurricane) and there's also been the opposite of that, with others saying it's unlikely to develop. My point is this: If it develops, it develops. If it doesn't, it doesn't. We each have our own opinions, which I [for the most part] enjoy reading, but there's no need to be aggressive about it.

And to whoever said that the NHC is no longer doing internal tracks because they're reclassifying this system... that's just flat-out wrong.

[Chacor]

By the way... 06z TWO.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA FROM CURACAO INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF CURACAO AND ARUBA. THIS SYSTEM
IS ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY SQUALLS MAINLY OVER WATER TO THE NORTH OF
THE LOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME BUT
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

[TSmith274]

I think I have just one point to make.

Over the last few pages there's been hype that this thing will develop (some claim into a hurricane) and there's also been the opposite of that, with others saying it's unlikely to develop. My point is this: If it develops, it develops. If it doesn't, it doesn't. We each have our own opinions, which I [for the most part] enjoy reading, but there's no need to be aggressive about it.

And to whoever said that the NHC is no longer doing internal tracks because they're reclassifying this system... that's just flat-out wrong.

The funny thing to me is that we all know that intensity forecasts are the most difficult aspects of all this. Nobody can say what will happen either way.

[NDG]

Deep convection is starting stay near the broad low pressure center, convection wise at least looks better than 96L, lol.

[coreyl]

Are there any models that will be coming out in the next hour or so?

[Chacor]

Are there any models that will be coming out in the next hour or so?

The 06z run should be on its way.

[Stratosphere747]

[Stratosphere747]

I could be off base, but it sure looks to have slowed down.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This "kind" of reminds me of Isidore 2002. But I don't think it has much chance of development intil it passes 75 west at least. More so if it gets into the Gulf...Hell it would not suprize me if this whole darn things just fizzled since I'm talking about it. But the models are hinting at development, so pay close attion on it with the cmc, Ecmwf showing that.

[tailgater]

The ULL over the Bahamas and eastern Cuba holds the key in my mind. If the ULL drops much farther south it will rip this invest apart if not I'd expect a TS tomorrow, sheared on it's northern side but getting stronger as it heads for the Yucatan.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc02/A ... N-740W.jpg

It was farther north, but it did start out very far south like this one.

The shear doe's hold the key. If the shear don't destroy this system it could develop...Now what will it do and how strong will it gets is anyones guest. I don't think we should even try to guest how strong this will be intil its a cyclone. Because this thing has tricked us many of times.