ATL: Dolly Model Runs

[canetracker]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2008071718-invest94l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

HWRF 18z does not want to develop 94l but jumps on board with movement into the GOM.

[HouTXmetro]

It's seems most models have moved north.

[Portastorm]

It's seems most models have moved north.

They have. Been the trend all day (for the last several runs).

[wxman57]

GFDL & Dean of 2007 (below). For quite a few runs (more than below) it forecast a landfall in Louisiana or Texas. Dean was fast-moving (like 94L) but it was a lot stronger, of course. Maybe the models are having a hard time with this fast-moving disturbance.

Total different setup from Dean. Not even comparable. GFS shows the ridge being eroded by a strong trough.

And all we have here is a tropical wave, not a major hurricane. Yes, different setup.

[ROCK]

GFDL & Dean of 2007 (below). For quite a few runs (more than below) it forecast a landfall in Louisiana or Texas. Dean was fast-moving (like 94L) but it was a lot stronger, of course. Maybe the models are having a hard time with this fast-moving disturbance.

Total different setup from Dean. Not even comparable. GFS shows the ridge being eroded by a strong trough.

And all we have here is a tropical wave, not a major hurricane. Yes, different setup.

Wxmn57, I remember with Dean and Felix to a certain degree the models trended north b/c they were climo biased. At least thats what I remember.

[category5]

And all we have here is a tropical wave, not a major hurricane. Yes, different setup.

But models are forward looking and they see a more powerful storm turning NW and N. The MX, Nicaragua scenario is losing favor quickly with the all important model guidance.

[Ed Mahmoud]

FWIW, 0Z NAM is a weak system crossing the Southern Yucatan and briefly emerging into the Bay of Campeche.


Waiting to see what the rest of the 0Z models show in the morning, but I think WxMan57's point about models being too fast to develop this, and thus probably too far North should be remembered.

[ROCK]

FWIW, 0Z NAM is a weak system crossing the Southern Yucatan and briefly emerging into the Bay of Campeche.


Waiting to see what the rest of the 0Z models show in the morning, but I think WxMan57's point about models being too fast to develop this, and thus probably too far North should be remembered.

Ed, I lost all respect for you.... Looking at the NAM.....the shame...

[Ed Mahmoud]

NAM is the only model I can stay up for. Almost bedtime.

[srainhoutx]

I'm with you Ed. For now...

[ROCK]

0z GFS rolling in....

66hr....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_066l.gif


84hr.....not liking that....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif


96hr BOC


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096m.gif

[Wx_Warrior]

Heavy rain maker for someone next weekend.

[TheRingo]

CMC 00z

[Meso]

Now this is interesting... the 00z EURO is showing the same thing as the CMC

[KWT]

Good agreement between the GFS, ECM and CMC on a track that would take it into northern Mexico, looks pretty reasonable IMO.

[Nimbus]

With 95L to the west and a ridge to the east the variable factor is intensity.

Continuing as a weak wave it follows 95L harmlessly into Mexico.
Slows down and spins up earlier than expected it could shoot the Yucatan channel.

Models don't do very well with intensity forecasts.
Since the system has continued weak and west it might be assumed that the models have built in some left bias to their tracks.

[KWT]

I wouldn't be surprised if something close to the CMC occurs where it does gain enough lattiude to get into the BoC but not quite enough to be a threat to the USA. Still we will have to wait and see I want to see what this system does in the next 24hrs first.

[cycloneye]

GFDL in its 06z run reaches more west inside the GOM (93w) to be more precise 26.7n-93.3w.

WHXX04 KWBC 181132
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 6Z JUL 18

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 13.3 69.6 280./15.9
6 13.6 70.9 284./13.7
12 14.0 73.2 278./21.9
18 14.2 75.0 277./17.8
24 14.9 77.1 288./21.5
30 15.7 78.5 300./15.8
36 16.9 80.2 306./21.0
42 17.5 81.4 297./12.4
48 19.0 82.3 329./16.9
54 20.2 83.3 321./15.6
60 21.1 84.9 297./17.7
66 21.7 86.2 297./12.8
72 22.0 87.7 281./14.1
78 22.1 88.7 278./10.1
84 22.4 89.3 288./ 5.9
90 22.8 89.9 311./ 7.0
96 23.1 90.7 292./ 8.1
102 23.7 91.1 326./ 6.7
108 24.5 91.5 329./ 8.5
114 25.3 91.9 335./ 8.9
120 26.1 92.7 319./10.9
126 26.7 93.3 309./ 7.7

[KWT]

Hmmm still misses the Yucatan but its probably a little more likely then the 18z run which IMO turned to the north way too quickly. Still the GFDL does have a real threat to Texas at least.

[cycloneye]

Where the 06z GFDL ends as a hurricane: