ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Ed Mahmoud]

But we'll have #96L soon. I think once the sun sets on Florida and the land based storms die down a tad, the storms offshore will really fire up.

IMHO.

96L already exists, or did you mean 96L will strengthen once the sun sets?

The latter...

[category5]

someone please post the link to the NHC internal forecast track for this. I've seen it posted before by a moderator.

[TheRingo]

wow convection building now.

[HURAKAN]

While last night convection was waning, tonight convection is increasing.

[cycloneye]

deltadog,you think 94L will start to slow down a little as it gets closer to 95L?

[HouTXmetro]

While last night convection was waning, tonight convection is increasing.

Shhhhh. your going to Jinx development.

[deltadog03]

I think it should Luis...Maybe down to 15mph range?? I can still see some shear coming down from the NW, but as you posted, shear should begin to relax.

[RL3AO]

While last night convection was waning, tonight convection is increasing.

Shhhhh. your going to Jinx development.

Considering you live in Houston, thats probably a good thing.

[HURAKAN]

While last night convection was waning, tonight convection is increasing.

Shhhhh. your going to Jinx development.

94L has fought for so long that if it's going to develop, it will develop. No way to jinx it!!!

[Chacor]

someone please post the link to the NHC internal forecast track for this. I've seen it posted before by a moderator.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/aid_pu ... 008.dat.gz

OFCI.

[funster]

While last night convection was waning, tonight convection is increasing.

Shhhhh. your going to Jinx development.

94L has fought for so long that if it's going to develop, it will develop. No way to jinx it!!!

We've all been watching it for a long time too!

[RL3AO]

someone please post the link to the NHC internal forecast track for this. I've seen it posted before by a moderator.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/aid_pu ... 008.dat.gz

OFCI.

For those who don't want to download a large text file.

Code: Select all

AL, 94, 2008071618, 03, OFCI,   0, 123N,  587W,  30,    0,   ,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 94, 2008071618, 03, OFCI,  12, 126N,  626W,  34,    0,   ,  34, NEQ,    5,   13,   13,   14,
AL, 94, 2008071618, 03, OFCI,  24, 129N,  665W,  39,    0,   ,  34, NEQ,   13,   26,   26,   36,
AL, 94, 2008071618, 03, OFCI,  36, 130N,  698W,  42,    0,   ,  34, NEQ,   18,   28,   28,   47,
AL, 94, 2008071618, 03, OFCI,  48, 131N,  727W,  42,    0,   ,  34, NEQ,   19,   28,   28,   48,
AL, 94, 2008071618, 03, OFCI,  60, 133N,  757W,  42,    0,   ,  34, NEQ,   19,   28,   28,   48,
AL, 94, 2008071618, 03, OFCI,  72, 138N,  784W,  42,    0,   ,  34, NEQ,   19,   28,   28,   48,
AL, 94, 2008071618, 03, OFCI,  84, 146N,  810W,  42,    0,   ,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 94, 2008071618, 03, OFCI,  96, 153N,  835W,  42,    0,   ,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 94, 2008071618, 03, OFCI, 108, 161N,  860W,  42,    0,   ,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 94, 2008071618, 03, OFCI, 120, 168N,  885W,  42,    0,   ,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0,

[Innotech]

this storm is way too much of a fighter. With decreasing shear forecast along with a reduction in forward speed, this could get ugly fast.

[deltadog03]

If, you look at the modes...GFS, EURO..etc...There is shear that follows 94L into the GOM, but...It appears** thats the outflow from the developing cyclone. They both forecast a 200mb Anti-cyclone to follow it into the gom.

[Praxus]

Look at that shape



Things could get ugly.

[senorpepr]

someone please post the link to the NHC internal forecast track for this. I've seen it posted before by a moderator.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/aid_pu ... 008.dat.gz

OFCI.

For those who don't want to download a large text file.

Code: Select all

AL, 94, 2008071618, 03, OFCI,   0, 123N,  587W,  30,    0,   ,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 94, 2008071618, 03, OFCI,  12, 126N,  626W,  34,    0,   ,  34, NEQ,    5,   13,   13,   14,
AL, 94, 2008071618, 03, OFCI,  24, 129N,  665W,  39,    0,   ,  34, NEQ,   13,   26,   26,   36,
AL, 94, 2008071618, 03, OFCI,  36, 130N,  698W,  42,    0,   ,  34, NEQ,   18,   28,   28,   47,
AL, 94, 2008071618, 03, OFCI,  48, 131N,  727W,  42,    0,   ,  34, NEQ,   19,   28,   28,   48,
AL, 94, 2008071618, 03, OFCI,  60, 133N,  757W,  42,    0,   ,  34, NEQ,   19,   28,   28,   48,
AL, 94, 2008071618, 03, OFCI,  72, 138N,  784W,  42,    0,   ,  34, NEQ,   19,   28,   28,   48,
AL, 94, 2008071618, 03, OFCI,  84, 146N,  810W,  42,    0,   ,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 94, 2008071618, 03, OFCI,  96, 153N,  835W,  42,    0,   ,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 94, 2008071618, 03, OFCI, 108, 161N,  860W,  42,    0,   ,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 94, 2008071618, 03, OFCI, 120, 168N,  885W,  42,    0,   ,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0,

Note that forecast was from 16/18Z, over a day ago. They have stopped issuing forecasts for this. For a graphical version, look for the white line on the following image:

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... mid=&size=

(Notice that there isn't a white line, that's because there's no current forecast)

[zaqxsw75050]

Look at that shape



Things could get ugly.

An arrow

[Frank P]

Been watching the convection develop late this afternoon and evening..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-ir2.html

Probably the best 94L has looked in quite some time atm... models showing northward trend to GOM not what we really want to see either...

[HURAKAN]

[alan1961]

its catching up with the mess to the west of it..surely that will have some sort of impact on it.