ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[cycloneye]

Good pic Ed,where all four Atlantic systems can be seen.

[KWT]

Agreed Ed it could do something when it reaches some lower shear sin a couple of days time, though I wonder how much convective mess may stiill be left over with 95L in the Caribbean, could have a small impact on 94L if it moves too quickly to the west. Still I do believe this needs to be watched, esp if it can get towards the GoH near the Yucatan.

[HouTXmetro]

While it looks disorganized, Convection is increasing and intensifying at a time we usually see a decrease.

[O Town]

[category5]

Does anyone know if Accuweather can begin issuing advisories if they believe this is a tropical depression or storm, regardless of what the NHC says? I was wondering if there is some kind of government regulation that requires all outside organizations to wait for the official NHC declaration.

[wx247]

Does anyone know if Accuweather can begin issuing advisories if they believe this is a tropical depression or storm, regardless of what the NHC says? I was wondering if there is some kind of government regulation that requires all outside organizations to wait for the official NHC declaration.

Only federal govt organizations can issue advisories, watches, or warnings concerning the US.

[cycloneye]

That was a personal opinion from JB and not doing a forecast.But they have to follow what NHC says.

[RL3AO]

Does anyone know if Accuweather can begin issuing advisories if they believe this is a tropical depression or storm, regardless of what the NHC says? I was wondering if there is some kind of government regulation that requires all outside organizations to wait for the official NHC declaration.

The UN's designated Weather Meteorlogical Organization has given the National Hurricane Center a designation of "RSMC" for the entire North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific basins. That means they are the only ones to issue advisories.

[Derek Ortt]

Does anyone know if Accuweather can begin issuing advisories if they believe this is a tropical depression or storm, regardless of what the NHC says? I was wondering if there is some kind of government regulation that requires all outside organizations to wait for the official NHC declaration.

Only federal govt organizations can issue advisories, watches, or warnings concerning the US.

I believe they could in theory issue advisories

JTWC sometimes does the same for the WPAC

However, knowing the source of those advisories (Accuwx)... not sure how seriously they would be received

[Derek Ortt]

Does anyone know if Accuweather can begin issuing advisories if they believe this is a tropical depression or storm, regardless of what the NHC says? I was wondering if there is some kind of government regulation that requires all outside organizations to wait for the official NHC declaration.

The UN's designated Weather Meteorlogical Organization has given the National Hurricane Center a designation of "RSMC" for the entire North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific basins. That means they are the only ones to issue advisories.

NHC is the only organization that can name storms. But there are many other "advisories" issued once the storms are already named

[RL3AO]

Does anyone know if Accuweather can begin issuing advisories if they believe this is a tropical depression or storm, regardless of what the NHC says? I was wondering if there is some kind of government regulation that requires all outside organizations to wait for the official NHC declaration.

The UN's designated Weather Meteorlogical Organization has given the National Hurricane Center a designation of "RSMC" for the entire North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific basins. That means they are the only ones to issue advisories.

NHC is the only organization that can name storms. But there are many other "advisories" issued once the storms are already named

I could have worded it better, but thats what I meant.

[wx247]

Interesting Derek, I was not aware of that. I do know, however, if Accuweather started issuing advisories they would be prone to some lawsuits.

[KWT]

Convection is once again developing it seems, I think the chances for development do slowly increase the further west it can get, clearly still under some shear at the moment right now and still not quite got a circulation, does look rather sharp though according to recon once again.

[cpdaman]

personally i think if Accux did issue advisory's they WOULD be well received.

Joe B got a bunch of face time on Katrina and they had the accux logo their and i have seen some of the cable channels reference the network many times. The average joe on the street (90% of those who would be on receiving end of the message) would not say "hey the NHC hasn't issued an advisory yet, because they would have no idea unless someone told them, so if being taken seriously means well received then yes they would.

[CrazyC83]

Based on recon data, I'd say the center is at 13.1N 67.4W.

[wxman57]

Interesting Derek, I was not aware of that. I do know, however, if Accuweather started issuing advisories they would be prone to some lawsuits.

Not exactly true. Like us, AccuWeather has paying clients who get forecasts. I can't speak for what AccuWeather does, but we certainly can issue advisories to our clients (not the general public) on any system at any time. In face, we just issued a 6-day track on 94L for some of our high-end clients. It's quite common for us to issue "advisories" (tracks/commentary) on systems days or more before the NHC names a system. In fact, we consider our services a failure if the first advisory a client gets is from the NHC and not from us long before something is named.

[weatherguru18]

Interesting Derek, I was not aware of that. I do know, however, if Accuweather started issuing advisories they would be prone to some lawsuits.

Not exactly true. Like us, AccuWeather has paying clients who get forecasts. I can't speak for what AccuWeather does, but we certainly can issue advisories to our clients (not the general public) on any system at any time. In face, we just issued a 6-day track on 94L for some of our high-end clients. It's quite common for us to issue "advisories" (tracks/commentary) on systems days or more before the NHC names a system. In fact, we consider our services a failure if the first advisory a client gets is from the NHC and not from us long before something is named.

How 'bout that! Who knew? I didn't.

[txag2005]

So it seems like this thing is getting more favorable for development based on the last 10-20 posts?

[wx247]

Interesting Derek, I was not aware of that. I do know, however, if Accuweather started issuing advisories they would be prone to some lawsuits.

Not exactly true. Like us, AccuWeather has paying clients who get forecasts. I can't speak for what AccuWeather does, but we certainly can issue advisories to our clients (not the general public) on any system at any time. In face, we just issued a 6-day track on 94L for some of our high-end clients. It's quite common for us to issue "advisories" (tracks/commentary) on systems days or more before the NHC names a system. In fact, we consider our services a failure if the first advisory a client gets is from the NHC and not from us long before something is named.

Understood. I think the reference here is to the general public and not to the pvt industry. I can completely see a company doing what you are doing. I am just referring to AccuWx going out and issuing advisories and placing them on their site. I think would be totally counterproductive and some would get them confused with NHC advisories. What you do (and what AccuWx does) for pvt clients is different and wasn't what I was referring to. I hope I made myself clear enough. Anyway, back to 94L.

[KWT]

I think it will eventually get into an area of less shear txag2005, its just a case of will it have enough time to do anything before hitting central America. Also if it can make it into the BoC/GoM then things would get very interesting but thats a long way off yet.