Northward Turn

[Tip]

I believe after looking at the latest GFS and ETA models that the developing long wave trough approaching the East Coast is breaking down the ridge quicker and the trough itself will be deeper than initially thought. In response to this, the western ridge will get stronger. The two in combination may have already influenced the track and most likely in the future.

[Rainband]

I believe after looking at the latest GFS and ETA models that the developing long wave trough approaching the East Coast is breaking down the ridge quicker and the trough itself will be deeper than initially thought. In response to this, the western ridge will get stronger. The two in combination may have already influenced the track and most likely in the future.

Check my posts in rainstorms thread..my pressures are diving..maybe thats why??

[Guest]

How will it influence it TIP? Move the storm to the West as in original model runs ?

More specifics if possible.

Patricia

[Guest]

More north ticka...............This is something i have been watching and thinking but havent commented much on because i wanted to make sure first................Like tip said that trough approaching the eastcoast is a bit more deeper then what most models were saying................The question imo is how far north with she get??????? I think the central gulf atleast but where she goes from there is the real question which i dont think any model can take a shot at right now nor myself for that matter................My best guess would be from LA/MS Line West to Corpus Christi, TX for a landfall...............I certainly dont see it going into Mexico as well i dont see it as a threat for Panama City,FL east or south for that matter............

[Guest]

Wow Harry - my thoughts too. I'm stocking up on supplies tonight.

I will leave the plywood until she is in the GOM - but then we can allways use it around the house.

Patricia

[PTrackerLA]

Ticka this isn't looking good, she very well may be a northern gulf coast storm! It seems like she might miss the yucatan all together.

[Rainband]

More north ticka...............This is something i have been watching and thinking but havent commented much on because i wanted to make sure first................Like tip said that trough approaching the eastcoast is a bit more deeper then what most models were saying................The question imo is how far north with she get??????? I think the central gulf atleast but where she goes from there is the real question which i dont think any model can take a shot at right now nor myself for that matter................My best guess would be from LA/MS Line West to Corpus Christi, TX for a landfall...............I certainly dont see it going into Mexico as well i dont see it as a threat for Panama City,FL east or south for that matter............

What about the ridge to the west..novice here so forgive me..if that built west and the trof dug down wouldn't that promote a n ne motion?? If I am wrong sorry learning as I go!!

[Guest]

Yeah PT - I see that. I'll be in the chatroom tonight - meet me in there with everyone else so we can dissect her and discuss.....

[Lindaloo]

Ticka this isn't looking good, she very well may be a northern gulf coast storm! It seems like she might miss the yucatan all together.

NOT!!!! NO WAY!! NADA!!!

[Tip]

As a follow-up to the original post, I think a more northward track is coming. The 18Z GFS shows a deeping East Coast trough and the western ridge dominating out there. Notice the small X in the Gulf, that is Claudette. From 18 to 48 hrs the trough really goes bonkers.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 42_s.shtml

[Steve Cosby]

Not only that but the last few frames of the Floater loops really look to me like a straight north and even northeastward turn. It may be related to reorganization but its worrisome.

Here's the link I use for sat. photos:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html

[Rainband]

Not only that but the last few frames of the Floater loops really look to me like a straight north and even northeastward turn. It may be related to reorganization but its worrisome.

Here's the link I use for sat. photos:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html

I see that too and did you look at cycloneyes post a model is shifting even futher east..begininng of a trend I wonder..steve lyons seemed a little nervous 10 minutes ago!! The trof may be key after all>>>

[mf_dolphin]

It definitely make things more interesting for the next 24 hours! LOL All hands on deck around the GOM!

[Toni - 574]

Thanks for the links guys, looks like no one should let their guard down. Up to this point I haven't said very much about where I think it could go, mainly because I don't know , however I was leaning toward the Western Gulf, now I am not so sure especially if this thing keeps heading N. I can also now see a slim chance of it even making landfall more toward the NE. There is a heck of a lot of good theories out there, time will tell, now that I have a few more gray hairs. :o

[wxman57]

I agree the threat has shifted from Mexico to TX or LA. Forget that CLIPER model track taking it to Florida. CLIPER = CLImatology and PERsistence. It just looks at where the storm is tracking NOW and also what previous storms have done in the same area and at the same time of year and extrapolates a path. This model does not look at any current weather patterns. That northward jog, a reorganization of the center, was the culprit.

I'm getting a bit more concerned up here in Houston. If Claudette moves faster than the NHC track (highly likely given they're reluctant to show landfall very soon), then it may arrive in the north-central Gulf before the eastern ridge can push it west. That leaves the upper TX coast open for a hit, or possibly even the mid to southeast LA coast as a possible landfall.

All along, my gut feeling had been LA/MS. Hope that doesn't come true! Four 12-16 hour shifts and counting. I hope to get a day off by the end of next week.

[Toni - 574]

Thanks Wxman for your input, the shift has made a big difference in a lot of thinking now. By the way I never knew that about the CLIPER. Keep us informed.

[Rainband]

I agree the threat has shifted from Mexico to TX or LA. Forget that CLIPER model track taking it to Florida. CLIPER = CLImatology and PERsistence. It just looks at where the storm is tracking NOW and also what previous storms have done in the same area and at the same time of year and extrapolates a path. This model does not look at any current weather patterns. That northward jog, a reorganization of the center, was the culprit.

I'm getting a bit more concerned up here in Houston. If Claudette moves faster than the NHC track (highly likely given they're reluctant to show landfall very soon), then it may arrive in the north-central Gulf before the eastern ridge can push it west. That leaves the upper TX coast open for a hit, or possibly even the mid to southeast LA coast as a possible landfall.

All along, my gut feeling had been LA/MS. Hope that doesn't come true! Four 12-16 hour shifts and counting. I hope to get a day off by the end of next week.

With all due respect anyone on the GOM needs to watch this storm. BTW wasn't there two storms in july of 1886 or there about that curved ne into florida???

[Toni - 574]

Yes Rainband that was the year.The #3 and #4 storm looks like made landfall around the Big Bend area.
Also wanted to add that it was also a year for Gulf storms. Also check out the #7and #9 storms in 1886.

[ColdFront77]

Storms 3, 4, 7 and 9 of 1886:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... rack_s.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... rack_s.gif


http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... rack_s.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... rack_s.gif

[Toni - 574]

Thanks Coldfront for the link, I should have done that but I got distracted trying to type and talk on the phone at the same time.

Looks like the Gulf was pretty active that year. Hope its not a repeat performance.