ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Comanche]

I need a new roof, mine is peaking out now at 21 years old.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Staring very intently at visible satellite imagery, I can't see a center. It looks more like a tropical wave now than it did yesterday. Maybe it'll get into more favorable conditions in a day or two when it is farther from South America, but it looks plain discombobulated now.

If aircraft couldn't close a center yesterday, I don't see them doing it today.


Unofficially.

[sunny]

I need a new roof, mine is peaking out now at 21 years old.

Be careful what you ask for........

[HouTXmetro]

Didn't take much for the Texas folks to jump on here. I doubt we have anything to worry about. 94L will not show it's hand.

[Aric Dunn]

well here is the radar.. out of the Antilles .. hard to tell but like yesterday there is probably a closed wind (weak) field but no well defined center...
http://www.weather.an/product_images/high/ppi.html

[Ed Mahmoud]

As long as it's a weak TS that brings a hellish amount of rain. 94L is most welcome here.

I wouldn't mind the excitement of a tropical storm or barely Category 1, but as far as hellish rains- my wife's cousin and her grandparents both flooded during Allison, and tearing out muddy wet carpets in hot and unairconditioned homes isn't any fun at all.

[HurricaneHunter914]

As long as it's a weak TS that brings a hellish amount of rain. 94L is most welcome here.

I wouldn't mind the excitement of a tropical storm or barely Category 1, but as far as hellish rains- my wife's cousin and her grandparents both flooded during Allison, and tearing out muddy wet carpets in hot and unairconditioned homes isn't any fun at all.

Sorry, I just moved here a yr ago from FL and I'm used to afternoon T-storms every other day. Here, it's really hot and barely rains at all. A good 6-8 inches for my lawn wouldn't be so bad. Maybe not hellish rain, but a bearable amount perhaps.

[KWT]

Lots of deep convection flaring along the wave axis despite the shear being pretty obvious, I think if this does get a 24-36hr window where conditions do become favorable in the western Caribbean in a few days its got a chance of becoming a system but right now its still a open wave IMO though granted a very sharp one.

[scotto]

Should this system make it to the GOM per recent models, any ideas on which way it may 'steered' ?

[KWT]

Well if it stays weak then IMO it should be guided into central America, the GFDL does take this into the gulf but it tends to be too quick at breaking down ridges and so not sure how much credit should be given to that!

[Comanche]

the other models have trended a bit north from previous runs as well.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Some West winds, but no wind in any quadrant I've seen above 26 knots flight level. And it looks horribly unorganized on satellite.


It may get into more favorable conditions tomorrow and Saturday, but right now I don't think this is a depression. On the other hand, I'd say, unofficially, of course, that 96L is either a depression or an STD.



If this does develop in a day or two, based on most of the GFS ensembles, and the Canadian, and the Euro, a hit on the Yucatan, and a second hit possible in Mexico, with some possible sensible weather effects in Deep South Texas, but no major US impacts.

That prognosis, of course, is not official, or endorsed by Storm2K.

[Ed Mahmoud]

As long as it's a weak TS that brings a hellish amount of rain. 94L is most welcome here.

I wouldn't mind the excitement of a tropical storm or barely Category 1, but as far as hellish rains- my wife's cousin and her grandparents both flooded during Allison, and tearing out muddy wet carpets in hot and unairconditioned homes isn't any fun at all.

Sorry, I just moved here a yr ago from FL and I'm used to afternoon T-storms every other day. Here, it's really hot and barely rains at all. A good 6-8 inches for my lawn wouldn't be so bad. Maybe not hellish rain, but a bearable amount perhaps.

Keep it under 20 inches in 12 hours and I know my house won't flood.

[KWT]

Yeah right now though I find it hard that it won't hit central America in some form.
what is interesting is the SHIPS has shear really coming down in the western Caribbean and so this may need to be watched out there, esp given its still firing up convection quite readily.
Still going to have to keep an eye on this going to be with us for at least a few days yet I feel.

[txag2005]

Some West winds, but no wind in any quadrant I've seen above 26 knots flight level. And it looks horribly unorganized on satellite.


It may get into more favorable conditions tomorrow and Saturday, but right now I don't think this is a depression. On the other hand, I'd say, unofficially, of course, that 96L is either a depression or an STD.



If this does develop in a day or two, based on most of the GFS ensembles, and the Canadian, and the Euro, a hit on the Yucatan, and a second hit possible in Mexico, with some possible sensible weather effects in Deep South Texas, but no major US impacts.

That prognosis, of course, is not official, or endorsed by Storm2K.

What strength do you think it could hit the Yucatan at (TD, TS, cat 1 hurr, cat 2 etc..)?

[deuzie]

What strength do you think it could hit the Yucatan at (TD, TS, cat 1 hurr, cat 2 etc..)?

There is absolutely no way of predicting that at this time...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Some West winds, but no wind in any quadrant I've seen above 26 knots flight level. And it looks horribly unorganized on satellite.


It may get into more favorable conditions tomorrow and Saturday, but right now I don't think this is a depression. On the other hand, I'd say, unofficially, of course, that 96L is either a depression or an STD.



If this does develop in a day or two, based on most of the GFS ensembles, and the Canadian, and the Euro, a hit on the Yucatan, and a second hit possible in Mexico, with some possible sensible weather effects in Deep South Texas, but no major US impacts.

That prognosis, of course, is not official, or endorsed by Storm2K.

What strength do you think it could hit the Yucatan at (TD, TS, cat 1 hurr, cat 2 etc..)?

Hard to say, and I am an amateur. Assuming it starts really organizing tomorrow, looking at SHIPS and GFDL, a strong tropical storm, maybe a minimal Cat 1 hurricane, seems reasonable.

But oceanic heat content is high, and even guys with PhDs admit intensity forecasting is difficult.


So, 'too soon to tell' may be the best answer...

[Portastorm]

Some West winds, but no wind in any quadrant I've seen above 26 knots flight level. And it looks horribly unorganized on satellite.


It may get into more favorable conditions tomorrow and Saturday, but right now I don't think this is a depression. On the other hand, I'd say, unofficially, of course, that 96L is either a depression or an STD.



If this does develop in a day or two, based on most of the GFS ensembles, and the Canadian, and the Euro, a hit on the Yucatan, and a second hit possible in Mexico, with some possible sensible weather effects in Deep South Texas, but no major US impacts.

That prognosis, of course, is not official, or endorsed by Storm2K.

True Ed, but you'll notice the 12z Euro is trending further north with the system as it now shows a low moving inland in NE Mexico, just beneath Brownsville. The 0z run was further south. This, coupled with the latest GFS and GFDL runs, makes me a bit curious if the synoptics suggest an eventual steering environment toward the northwestern Gulf.

Then again, we're taking about a strong tropical wave at the moment and nothing more ... so we have to keep that in mind!

[KWT]

Possibly if it does strengthen enough it may feel the effects of any weakening of the ridge but right now its tough to say even if there wil lbe any development at all, the chances for development do increase further west but its no certainty at all.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Good news/bad news scenario for me based on aircraft. Still don't see a tight center, although plenty of light West winds, and highest wind I saw on the HDOB was 26 knots. And it looks bad on satellite.


But, it seems to have about 1008 mb central pressure, give or take, and does have convection with it. When it does get into the weaker Easterlies (and slowing winds are usually converging winds) farther from the Equatorial heat low and South America (which it'll do even bearing due West, as South America curves away a bit), it'll have a lot of ingredients near by. The cake won't be baked, but the eggs, flour, milk, baking soda, yeast and orange juice will all be ready for a quick mixing and baking. The ingredients being low pressure and a lot of moisture.