ATL: Tropical Storm Cristobal Model Runs
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ATL: Tropical Storm Cristobal Model Runs
WHXX01 KWBC 171830
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1830 UTC THU JUL 17 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962008) 20080717 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080717 1800 080718 0600 080718 1800 080719 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.5N 80.3W 30.9N 80.6W 31.3N 80.8W 31.5N 81.0W
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080719 1800 080720 1800 080721 1800 080722 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 31.8N 81.2W 32.3N 80.6W 32.0N 76.5W 32.3N 74.6W
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.5N LONCUR = 80.3W DIRCUR = 5DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 29.5N LONM12 = 80.5W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 28.0N LONM24 = 80.7W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 15KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 80NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1830 UTC THU JUL 17 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962008) 20080717 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080717 1800 080718 0600 080718 1800 080719 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.5N 80.3W 30.9N 80.6W 31.3N 80.8W 31.5N 81.0W
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080719 1800 080720 1800 080721 1800 080722 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 31.8N 81.2W 32.3N 80.6W 32.0N 76.5W 32.3N 74.6W
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.5N LONCUR = 80.3W DIRCUR = 5DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 29.5N LONM12 = 80.5W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 28.0N LONM24 = 80.7W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 15KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 80NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L Model Runs
They added the SHIP numbers:
WHXX01 KWBC 171833
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1833 UTC THU JUL 17 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962008) 20080717 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080717 1800 080718 0600 080718 1800 080719 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.5N 80.3W 31.3N 80.9W 32.4N 81.5W 33.0N 81.8W
BAMD 30.5N 80.3W 30.9N 80.6W 31.3N 80.8W 31.5N 81.0W
BAMM 30.5N 80.3W 31.1N 80.6W 31.8N 80.8W 32.2N 80.9W
LBAR 30.5N 80.3W 30.9N 80.4W 31.6N 80.8W 32.6N 80.8W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 24KTS 26KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 24KTS 24KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080719 1800 080720 1800 080721 1800 080722 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 33.8N 81.6W 34.5N 79.5W 34.7N 74.7W 36.1N 69.6W
BAMD 31.8N 81.2W 32.3N 80.6W 32.0N 76.5W 32.3N 74.6W
BAMM 32.6N 80.7W 32.9N 79.2W 32.3N 75.5W 32.5N 72.8W
LBAR 33.7N 80.3W 35.5N 78.1W 37.7N 73.6W 44.9N 66.3W
SHIP 28KTS 34KTS 41KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 41KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.5N LONCUR = 80.3W DIRCUR = 5DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 29.5N LONM12 = 80.5W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 28.0N LONM24 = 80.7W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 15KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 80NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
WHXX01 KWBC 171833
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1833 UTC THU JUL 17 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962008) 20080717 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080717 1800 080718 0600 080718 1800 080719 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.5N 80.3W 31.3N 80.9W 32.4N 81.5W 33.0N 81.8W
BAMD 30.5N 80.3W 30.9N 80.6W 31.3N 80.8W 31.5N 81.0W
BAMM 30.5N 80.3W 31.1N 80.6W 31.8N 80.8W 32.2N 80.9W
LBAR 30.5N 80.3W 30.9N 80.4W 31.6N 80.8W 32.6N 80.8W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 24KTS 26KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 24KTS 24KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080719 1800 080720 1800 080721 1800 080722 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 33.8N 81.6W 34.5N 79.5W 34.7N 74.7W 36.1N 69.6W
BAMD 31.8N 81.2W 32.3N 80.6W 32.0N 76.5W 32.3N 74.6W
BAMM 32.6N 80.7W 32.9N 79.2W 32.3N 75.5W 32.5N 72.8W
LBAR 33.7N 80.3W 35.5N 78.1W 37.7N 73.6W 44.9N 66.3W
SHIP 28KTS 34KTS 41KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 41KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.5N LONCUR = 80.3W DIRCUR = 5DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 29.5N LONM12 = 80.5W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 28.0N LONM24 = 80.7W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 15KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 80NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
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- Stormtrack03
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L Model Runs
SHIP forecast: Shear not a big problem:
Code: Select all
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL962008 07/17/08 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 24 26 28 30 34 37 41 43 43
V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 24 24 25 26 31 35 38 40 41
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 21 24 25 30 34 39 44 48
SHEAR (KTS) 8 10 15 17 10 9 9 3 2 4 5 11 15
SHEAR DIR 358 306 323 352 4 337 29 302 273 228 51 101 111
SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.7 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.6
POT. INT. (KT) 124 122 121 120 118 117 116 117 119 123 121 119 117
ADJ. POT. INT. 103 101 100 99 97 95 94 96 99 104 103 99 97
200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.6
TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 7 6 10 8 10 8 9 8 10 9 8
700-500 MB RH 38 38 39 40 41 38 45 46 53 49 49 48 53
GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 8 9 10
850 MB ENV VOR -26 -40 -64 -76 -72 -99 -93 -112 -83 -78 -36 -25 -41
200 MB DIV -30 -18 -19 -18 -38 -8 -22 -14 -8 13 -8 14 34
LAND (KM) 104 95 74 50 26 -7 -21 -14 29 162 292 396 426
LAT (DEG N) 30.5 30.8 31.1 31.5 31.8 32.2 32.6 32.8 32.9 32.6 32.3 32.1 32.5
LONG(DEG W) 80.3 80.5 80.6 80.7 80.8 80.9 80.7 80.2 79.2 77.5 75.5 73.7 72.8
STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 4 3 2 2 3 5 8 8 6 5
HEAT CONTENT 6 3 2 1 0 0 9999 0 0 14 12 6 4
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=68.6)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 23.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 17. 18. 19. 18. 17.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 8. 11. 15. 18. 22. 24. 26.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 17. 21. 23. 23.
** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962008 INVEST 07/17/08 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : -24.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.4 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962008 INVEST 07/17/08 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY
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- dixiebreeze
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L Model Runs
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Savannah/Agusta might be in for a sideswipe -- or more from 96L
Savannah/Agusta might be in for a sideswipe -- or more from 96L
Last edited by dixiebreeze on Thu Jul 17, 2008 6:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- storms in NC
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Re:
I agree. Over the last few hours, the motion seems to be more W or SW based upon what I am seeing on the radar. The center of this low now looks to be just off the coast, east of Jacksonville, FL...Tstormwatcher wrote:Looking at the radar out of Jacksonville, looks like it is heading south although I am sure it's just a wobble.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes
Steering currents also seem to support this W, WSW or SW motion currently taking place: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html
One things for sure, the placement of this low has meant a very wet day down here in Orlando. A persistant band of rain has been set up over the area for most of the day and it is still coming down light to moderately this evening! This is the third day straight of good rains in central FL.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L Model Runs
WHXX01 KWBC 180026
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0026 UTC FRI JUL 18 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962008) 20080718 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080718 0000 080718 1200 080719 0000 080719 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.8N 80.4W 31.7N 81.1W 32.4N 81.5W 33.1N 81.7W
BAMD 30.8N 80.4W 31.1N 80.6W 31.4N 80.9W 31.7N 81.0W
BAMM 30.8N 80.4W 31.5N 80.8W 32.2N 81.1W 32.7N 81.2W
LBAR 30.8N 80.4W 31.3N 80.7W 32.1N 80.9W 33.1N 80.7W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 24KTS 26KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 22KTS 25KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080720 0000 080721 0000 080722 0000 080723 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 33.7N 81.4W 34.4N 78.6W 34.9N 73.5W 38.2N 68.2W
BAMD 32.1N 80.9W 33.0N 78.4W 33.4N 73.5W 36.1N 69.9W
BAMM 33.3N 80.9W 34.3N 77.9W 35.9N 72.6W 40.3N 67.7W
LBAR 34.1N 79.9W 35.8N 77.1W 38.7N 72.4W 46.0N 64.8W
SHIP 29KTS 37KTS 43KTS 50KTS
DSHP 26KTS 27KTS 35KTS 43KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.8N LONCUR = 80.4W DIRCUR = 5DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 30.1N LONM12 = 80.5W DIRM12 = 10DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 29.0N LONM24 = 80.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 15KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 80NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0026 UTC FRI JUL 18 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962008) 20080718 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080718 0000 080718 1200 080719 0000 080719 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.8N 80.4W 31.7N 81.1W 32.4N 81.5W 33.1N 81.7W
BAMD 30.8N 80.4W 31.1N 80.6W 31.4N 80.9W 31.7N 81.0W
BAMM 30.8N 80.4W 31.5N 80.8W 32.2N 81.1W 32.7N 81.2W
LBAR 30.8N 80.4W 31.3N 80.7W 32.1N 80.9W 33.1N 80.7W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 24KTS 26KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 22KTS 25KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080720 0000 080721 0000 080722 0000 080723 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 33.7N 81.4W 34.4N 78.6W 34.9N 73.5W 38.2N 68.2W
BAMD 32.1N 80.9W 33.0N 78.4W 33.4N 73.5W 36.1N 69.9W
BAMM 33.3N 80.9W 34.3N 77.9W 35.9N 72.6W 40.3N 67.7W
LBAR 34.1N 79.9W 35.8N 77.1W 38.7N 72.4W 46.0N 64.8W
SHIP 29KTS 37KTS 43KTS 50KTS
DSHP 26KTS 27KTS 35KTS 43KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.8N LONCUR = 80.4W DIRCUR = 5DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 30.1N LONM12 = 80.5W DIRM12 = 10DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 29.0N LONM24 = 80.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 15KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 80NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
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- storms in NC
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802
WHXX04 KWBC 181127
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 96L
INITIAL TIME 6Z JUL 18
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 30.7 80.8 360./ 1.0
6 31.0 80.7 9./ 3.8
12 31.3 80.7 0./ 2.6
18 31.4 80.6 49./ 1.8
24 31.8 80.2 50./ 4.9
30 32.1 79.4 65./ 6.9
36 32.4 79.0 53./ 5.0
42 32.7 78.6 52./ 4.6
48 33.0 77.9 74./ 6.3
54 33.4 76.8 67./10.0
STORM DISSIPATED AT 54 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
WHXX04 KWBC 181127
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 96L
INITIAL TIME 6Z JUL 18
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 30.7 80.8 360./ 1.0
6 31.0 80.7 9./ 3.8
12 31.3 80.7 0./ 2.6
18 31.4 80.6 49./ 1.8
24 31.8 80.2 50./ 4.9
30 32.1 79.4 65./ 6.9
36 32.4 79.0 53./ 5.0
42 32.7 78.6 52./ 4.6
48 33.0 77.9 74./ 6.3
54 33.4 76.8 67./10.0
STORM DISSIPATED AT 54 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
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- HURAKAN
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092
WHXX01 KWBC 180627
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0627 UTC FRI JUL 18 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962008) 20080718 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080718 0600 080718 1800 080719 0600 080719 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.8N 80.5W 31.8N 80.8W 32.6N 80.9W 33.3N 80.6W
BAMD 30.8N 80.5W 31.1N 80.8W 31.4N 81.0W 31.7N 81.2W
BAMM 30.8N 80.5W 31.5N 80.8W 32.1N 81.0W 32.7N 80.9W
LBAR 30.8N 80.5W 31.1N 80.6W 31.8N 80.6W 32.5N 80.3W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 24KTS 27KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 22KTS 24KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080720 0600 080721 0600 080722 0600 080723 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 34.0N 79.9W 35.2N 75.9W 37.5N 70.1W 40.7N 63.4W
BAMD 32.2N 81.0W 33.0N 77.7W 33.7N 74.3W 35.4N 73.1W
BAMM 33.3N 80.4W 34.5N 76.4W 36.9N 70.7W 40.5N 64.3W
LBAR 33.4N 79.7W 35.0N 77.4W 37.7N 73.3W 43.6N 66.7W
SHIP 28KTS 39KTS 52KTS 52KTS
DSHP 26KTS 32KTS 45KTS 45KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.8N LONCUR = 80.5W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 30.5N LONM12 = 80.3W DIRM12 = 7DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 29.5N LONM24 = 80.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 80NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
WHXX01 KWBC 180627
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0627 UTC FRI JUL 18 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962008) 20080718 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080718 0600 080718 1800 080719 0600 080719 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.8N 80.5W 31.8N 80.8W 32.6N 80.9W 33.3N 80.6W
BAMD 30.8N 80.5W 31.1N 80.8W 31.4N 81.0W 31.7N 81.2W
BAMM 30.8N 80.5W 31.5N 80.8W 32.1N 81.0W 32.7N 80.9W
LBAR 30.8N 80.5W 31.1N 80.6W 31.8N 80.6W 32.5N 80.3W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 24KTS 27KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 22KTS 24KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080720 0600 080721 0600 080722 0600 080723 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 34.0N 79.9W 35.2N 75.9W 37.5N 70.1W 40.7N 63.4W
BAMD 32.2N 81.0W 33.0N 77.7W 33.7N 74.3W 35.4N 73.1W
BAMM 33.3N 80.4W 34.5N 76.4W 36.9N 70.7W 40.5N 64.3W
LBAR 33.4N 79.7W 35.0N 77.4W 37.7N 73.3W 43.6N 66.7W
SHIP 28KTS 39KTS 52KTS 52KTS
DSHP 26KTS 32KTS 45KTS 45KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.8N LONCUR = 80.5W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 30.5N LONM12 = 80.3W DIRM12 = 7DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 29.5N LONM24 = 80.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 80NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L Model Runs
the models may be initializing too far west should the center reformation occur around 79.8.
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139766
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 96L Model Runs
WHXX01 KWBC 181413
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1413 UTC FRI JUL 18 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962008) 20080718 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080718 1200 080719 0000 080719 1200 080720 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 31.1N 80.5W 32.0N 80.7W 32.9N 80.9W 33.7N 80.7W
BAMD 31.1N 80.5W 31.4N 80.9W 31.7N 81.1W 31.9N 81.3W
BAMM 31.1N 80.5W 31.8N 80.7W 32.4N 80.9W 33.0N 80.8W
LBAR 31.1N 80.5W 31.5N 80.7W 32.1N 80.7W 32.9N 80.2W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 33KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 27KTS 27KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080720 1200 080721 1200 080722 1200 080723 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 34.5N 80.1W 35.5N 74.8W 37.3N 68.2W 39.9N 61.9W
BAMD 32.3N 81.3W 32.2N 78.5W 32.0N 77.5W 32.6N 78.6W
BAMM 33.6N 80.3W 34.1N 75.9W 35.5N 71.1W 37.8N 67.9W
LBAR 33.7N 79.4W 35.3N 76.3W 39.2N 70.7W 50.1N 65.4W
SHIP 35KTS 43KTS 53KTS 53KTS
DSHP 27KTS 33KTS 43KTS 43KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 31.1N LONCUR = 80.5W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 30.8N LONM12 = 80.4W DIRM12 = 330DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 30.1N LONM24 = 80.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1413 UTC FRI JUL 18 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962008) 20080718 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080718 1200 080719 0000 080719 1200 080720 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 31.1N 80.5W 32.0N 80.7W 32.9N 80.9W 33.7N 80.7W
BAMD 31.1N 80.5W 31.4N 80.9W 31.7N 81.1W 31.9N 81.3W
BAMM 31.1N 80.5W 31.8N 80.7W 32.4N 80.9W 33.0N 80.8W
LBAR 31.1N 80.5W 31.5N 80.7W 32.1N 80.7W 32.9N 80.2W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 33KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 27KTS 27KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080720 1200 080721 1200 080722 1200 080723 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 34.5N 80.1W 35.5N 74.8W 37.3N 68.2W 39.9N 61.9W
BAMD 32.3N 81.3W 32.2N 78.5W 32.0N 77.5W 32.6N 78.6W
BAMM 33.6N 80.3W 34.1N 75.9W 35.5N 71.1W 37.8N 67.9W
LBAR 33.7N 79.4W 35.3N 76.3W 39.2N 70.7W 50.1N 65.4W
SHIP 35KTS 43KTS 53KTS 53KTS
DSHP 27KTS 33KTS 43KTS 43KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 31.1N LONCUR = 80.5W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 30.8N LONM12 = 80.4W DIRM12 = 330DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 30.1N LONM24 = 80.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
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