ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[HouTXmetro]

Two in the Caribbean, for July it's a WOW.

I wonder how the one to the west will affect this one, especially if it develops.

Maybe it will weaken High Pressure and allow 94L to take a more northward track. Just an uneducated guess though.

[chadtm80]

that should move into Central America according to NHC.

Really? I didn't read that in the TWO or lastest discussion. You may have confused it with the wave in the SW Carib.

White Line/dots here is NHC track

[93superstorm]

If it continues WNW, Could the low in the central carribean have any effect on it organizing?

[Hello32020]

Will be really interesting to see if that low to the west has any impact.

[cycloneye]

DMAX will be very interesting:

[Ivanhater]

If it continues WNW, Could the low in the central carribean have any effect on it organizing?

The area in the western caribbean should move west in tandem with 94L, so I would think not..but Im not 100 percent sure...

[Derek Ortt]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If DMAX doesn't fail tonight, we should see another burst in convection and organization by tomorrow morning. The NHC now says conditions are conducive and we have seen many systems develop in the ECAR in the last few years. Even if nothing develops, the northern coast of South America and the Netherland Antilles should expect thunderstorms and gusty winds over the next day or so.

I will have to disagree

we may see enhanced shear due to outflow from the tropical wave in the western Caribbean

[MGC]

I doubt 94L get upgraded tonight. Convection as on past evening remains unorganized. Shear is still an issue. Conditions just are not optimal for TC formation in the E CARB SEA. Conditions are much better in the W CARB SEA. As such 94L might be negatively affected by the disturbance in the W CARB SEA if it developes. My money is on a better chance for development later tomorrow or Friday as 94L reaches the central to western Caribbean where upper level conditions are more condusive to TC formation......MGC

[Sanibel]

We've seen this many times before in the Caribbean. The disturbance is moving forward too fast to develop so the center "skips" because it can't root down at 20-25mph forward speed. It maintains energy in suspended animation until it can slow down and co-locate the center with that red IR convection burst. So the forward speed and closeness to South America keep it down until it can settle better further into the Caribbean and develop. The hunters missed it because it is "skipping". Keep watching the red IR burst.

[GeneratorPower]

DMAX will be very interesting:

Sorry for asking this again, but what is the peak time of day for DMAX?

[HURAKAN]

Usually during the overnight hours and early morning.

[cycloneye]

DMAX will be very interesting:

Sorry for asking this again, but what is the peak time of day for DMAX?

Overnight hours.

[Sanibel]

We could see Dmax delayed because the island crossing can shake them up temporarily.

[GeneratorPower]

We could see Dmax delayed because the island crossing can shake them up temporarily.

I wouldn't think so with the islands being as small as they are and the circulation as ill-defined as it is. Not much to shake up yet.

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
10 PM sat pic.....

[ROCK]

Just read 10 pages to get caught up and found 50% of the posts were pointless bickering...guddos for the mods for the quick clean up....look like you guys have a long season ahead....

Sanibel, I think you are on to something with your post on skipping. Needs to slow down some....

[boca]

We've seen this many times before in the Caribbean. The disturbance is moving forward too fast to develop so the center "skips" because it can't root down at 20-25mph forward speed. It maintains energy in suspended animation until it can slow down and co-locate the center with that red IR convection burst. So the forward speed and closeness to South America keep it down until it can settle better further into the Caribbean and develop. The hunters missed it because it is "skipping". Keep watching the red IR burst.

That would explain why systems traveling so fast don't develop. Its like skipping a rock in a pond it only gets little pieces but not enough to root down to develop. I really like the term skipping because it makes sense. I wonder if theirs a meteorlogical term for it.

[Derek Ortt]

thats not accurate, sanibel

fast moving systems often do develop. However, this one failed to develop today because of northerly shear.

if environmental conditions are favorable... it will develop no matter how fast it is moving

[ROCK]

thats not accurate, sanibel

fast moving systems often do develop. However, this one failed to develop today because of northerly shear.

if environmental conditions are favorable... it will develop no matter how fast it is moving

it was a good analogy Derek especially for us ametuers....

That said I have seen many systems relocate LLC's under convection that is being sheared only to relo again.

[MGC]

Disturbances frequently develope that are moving over 20KTS. If the entire atmosphere is moving in the same direction then it has a excellent chance of development......MGC