ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[senorpepr]

New model data just came out labeled "94L Invest" vs. "Three". Monterey still has 94L Invest. Both signs of no upgrade. Just a strong tropical wave.

Not long ago, they also updated the best track, keeping 94L as a disturbance.

AL, 94, 2008071618, , BEST, 0, 123N, 587W, 30, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 120, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[KWT]

Yep I would like to wait a little while first though before saying they are keeping this as a wave feature because there could still be some debate at the NHC over this. Still from what I've seen does look like they are keeping this as an invest thus far.

[ts_kakolina]

16/1745 UTC 12.3N 57.9W T2.0/2.5 94L

[RL3AO]

We should get some sort of STDS soon telling us if they will upgrade (which I'm guessing they won't).

[alienstorm]

This is not a depression or cyclone given the decrease this afternoon in storm coverage. Also, it's very possible that any LLC will be jumping around and until they get a good fixed it won't be updated. The islands are going to get the weather whether its a storm or wave periodically some heavy rains with squalls up to tropical storm force winds.

Now the next question will be when it will develop, I think it will once it crosses over to the carribbean a UL High is suppose to form in the Central part later this week that may enhance the ability to form. If the NHC has not upgraded then I trully believe we will need to wait till maybe tomorrow or friday.

[RL3AO]

West winds at 13kt found.

[KWT]

Not only that but we've now got WNW winds as well, I think this is likely closed based on that as I think thats the only major direction that was missing.

alienstorm, ther eprobably won't be much left of this system after shear is done with it in the Eastern Caribbean.

[NDG]

New pass finds W wind 13knots 1009.5 mb

[Bertha08]

Honestly given the nature of this system, I think they are going to wait to see if the convection is maintained, before they will upgrade it. If the convection is still there by 11 I think it will be a 30mph TD. This has been a frustrating system.

[Ivanhater]

West winds at 13kt found.

Bout time!

[Cyclone1]

Upgrade? West winds mean LLC.

[Thunder44]

Barbados winds now switched over the E at 22mph. With the recon reporting W winds almost due south of there, we may have a closed circulation in between:

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TBPB.html

[KWT]

Yep I think given there is still some convection (grantedit doesn't look great!) Dvorak of 2.5 and a clearly closed LLC I find it tough to believe that they won't upgrade.

[NDG]

Upgrade? West winds mean LLC.

It means a closed LLC, yes, but about an upgrade is 50/50, I can see that the argument could be that strongest winds are found well away from the center, and its problem is its fast movement, that is creating its own UL shear and having a hard time in keeping its convection near its LLC.

[cheezyWXguy]

Yep I think given there is still some convection (grantedit doesn't look great!) Dvorak of 2.5 and a clearly closed LLC I find it tough to believe that they won't upgrade.

Yeah and with a closed llc now, I believe that we will see more convergence tonight that its actually associated with the storm. Dmax+closed llc=additional convection, if im correct.

[Bertha08]

Yep I think given there is still some convection (grantedit doesn't look great!) Dvorak of 2.5 and a clearly closed LLC I find it tough to believe that they won't upgrade.

You REALLY can't make up your mind can you?

[KWT]

Well Bertha08 I'm sort of in 2 mind about this system, it didn't look like it had a LLC so I said no, now a LLC has been proven by recon I'm saying it should be upgraded but there you go its a rollercoaster ride!

[Bertha08]

Well Bertha08 I'm sort of in 2 mind about this system, it didn't look like it had a LLC so I said no, now a LLC has been proven by recon I'm saying it should be upgraded but there you go its a rollercoaster ride!

I know what you mean man, I was just giving you a hard time. I enjoy your thoughts on here, but yea it's been a frustrating system overall.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I wonder if the NHC is waiting for the stock market to close before upgrading? This would be a smart move because it could cause a massive panic and shoot oil higher if this had any chance in hell of making it to the GOM.

Somehow I doubt that is a consideration...

[KWT]

Yep the thing is it had a solid LLC probably on Sunday but not the convection but then the convection came about 24hrs but then there were question mark about the circulation. At least we've got recon to answer the question once and for all I suppose!