ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

#1741 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Jul 16, 2008 1:31 pm

KWT wrote:Looks like we may have our next tropical cyclone, I also guess that we may have a tropical storm already given the sorts of estiamtes we've seen recently....mind you I do hear that the west winds are flagged...we will see!

Still looks like a tropical wave to me. And now the convection is dying off. Don't see any reason to call it a TD.

Aric Dunn · #1742 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Jul 16, 2008 1:32 pm

well considering .. the west winds .. i still dont see them upgrading.. convection is very minimal and dis organized..

KWT · #1743 Postby **KWT** » Wed Jul 16, 2008 1:33 pm

True wxman57 I wouldn't either but we've seen these really horrid looking systems get upgraded because of the circulation being found.

#1744 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Jul 16, 2008 1:38 pm

Is it September of July folks? :eek:

Note new area of interest in SW Caribbean:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=101870

#1745 Postby **NDG** » Wed Jul 16, 2008 1:38 pm

wxman57 wrote:
NDG wrote:Plenty of evidence of a light W & WSW winds found, considering how fast this is moving, it is a closed circulation.

I would argue that if the plane had flown through 94L between Sunday night and yesterday morning it would have found a well-defined LLC. Just light and variable winds along the wave axis now, though.

What was missing Sunday night was a SE wind, what was missing the last couple days was convection & convergence near its cyclonic center.

Admit it, today it has everything. :lol:

#1746 Postby **RL3AO** » Wed Jul 16, 2008 1:39 pm

For those who don't care for anything outside the Atlantic might want to check out the absolutly beautiful looking Hurricane Elida.

Website · #1747 Postby **Brent** » Wed Jul 16, 2008 1:40 pm

gatorcane wrote:Is it September of July folks? Note new area of interest in SW Caribbean:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=101870

I know, it's insane, and all three colors being used. :double:

alan1961 · #1748 Postby **alan1961** » Wed Jul 16, 2008 1:41 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
Brent wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:1-knot west wind found.

Oh WOW... Watch out islands!

Someone down there must have farted...

and surely not Bertha! :lol:

#1749 Postby **AnnularCane** » Wed Jul 16, 2008 1:41 pm

gatorcane wrote:Is it September of July folks? Note new area of interest in SW Caribbean:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=101870

One of each color and a named storm! *checks calendar*

Wonder what the real September will be like.

hurricanefloyd5 · #1750 Postby **hurricanefloyd5** » Wed Jul 16, 2008 1:52 pm

So is it a TS now or a TD or what!!!!!!!!

KWT · #1751 Postby **KWT** » Wed Jul 16, 2008 1:52 pm

Well we do have a west wind, I think giventhat and given we do still have convecton present even if the convection is getting messy we should still see an upgrade IMO based on all the data we've seen.

#1752 Postby **fci** » Wed Jul 16, 2008 1:53 pm

AnnularCane wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Is it September of July folks? Note new area of interest in SW Caribbean:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=101870

One of each color and a named storm! *checks calendar*

Wonder what the real September will be like.

Wow, an opening for all kind of jokes!! (hot, 30 days, Labor Day, NFL Football....)
But I'll just say that a busy July does not guarantee a busy September in the tropics.

#1753 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Jul 16, 2008 1:53 pm

16/1145 UTC 13.0N 56.1W T2.5/2.5 94L -- Atlantic Ocean

KWT · #1754 Postby **KWT** » Wed Jul 16, 2008 1:54 pm

I'd guess its a TD right now at 30kts unless some higher flight level measures canbe found.

Crazy, yeo that 2.5 estimate once again pushes home the idea that this will probably be upgraded.

Website · #1755 Postby **Brent** » Wed Jul 16, 2008 1:56 pm

hurricanefloyd5 wrote:So is it a TS now or a TD or what!!!!!!!!

Officially it is still an invest. I'm not completely convinced it's going to be upgraded based on the info avaliable now(still 2 hours til advisory time though).

Aric Dunn · #1756 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Jul 16, 2008 1:56 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:16/1145 UTC 13.0N 56.1W T2.5/2.5 94L -- Atlantic Ocean

they might upgrade...if its closed and they belive that it will maintain at least some convetion they will upgrade but it moving really fast and is going to have a hard time staying organized unless we maintain deep convection

KWT · #1757 Postby **KWT** » Wed Jul 16, 2008 1:58 pm

Given we have 2.5, we have a closed circulation and some convection, even if its a little on the messy side I would guess they will upgrade given its close to the windward islands now. Eiother way its 50-50 really and personally I'm not sure I wiould but who knows!

#1758 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Jul 16, 2008 2:01 pm

New model data just came out labeled "94L Invest" vs. "Three". Monterey still has 94L Invest. Both signs of no upgrade. Just a strong tropical wave.

Derek Ortt · #1759 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Wed Jul 16, 2008 2:03 pm

we dont have a closed circulation though

close... but not quite closed

KWT · #1760 Postby **KWT** » Wed Jul 16, 2008 2:06 pm

Derek I think we are missing a WNW reading, we do have a west wind though at 269. Wxman57, yep though still time, even if its not upgraded as you say its still a strong wave.

edit, if it doesn't get the upgrade now then I don't think it will at all to be honest, conditions ahead of the wave really isn't good at all.

ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

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