ATL: Dolly Model Runs

[cycloneye]

Moving at 21kts westward.30kts.

WHXX01 KWBC 161306
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1306 UTC WED JUL 16 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080716 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080716 1200 080717 0000 080717 1200 080718 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.2N 56.5W 13.1N 60.9W 14.2N 65.0W 15.2N 68.7W
BAMD 12.2N 56.5W 12.1N 58.9W 11.9N 61.4W 11.7N 63.9W
BAMM 12.2N 56.5W 12.7N 59.8W 13.0N 63.1W 13.5N 66.1W
LBAR 12.2N 56.5W 12.3N 60.0W 12.4N 63.7W 12.7N 67.6W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 37KTS 40KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 37KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080718 1200 080719 1200 080720 1200 080721 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.9N 72.8W 17.9N 81.4W 19.2N 89.3W 19.3N 95.7W
BAMD 11.6N 66.3W 12.2N 71.7W 13.4N 76.7W 14.5N 81.0W
BAMM 14.0N 69.0W 16.2N 74.9W 18.4N 80.4W 19.3N 86.0W
LBAR 13.1N 71.4W 15.1N 78.0W 21.5N 81.9W 22.0N 82.2W
SHIP 41KTS 43KTS 44KTS 49KTS
DSHP 41KTS 43KTS 44KTS 49KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.2N LONCUR = 56.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 21KT
LATM12 = 12.2N LONM12 = 51.8W DIRM12 = 266DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 12.4N LONM24 = 48.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[gatorcane]

Is the GFDL bending 94L northward into the Western side of Cuba at the end of the run? Just want to make sure I am seeing that right.

Also how strong is the GFDL forecasting 94L to get?

[WmE]

Is the GFDL bending 94L northward into the Western side of Cuba at the end of the run? Just want to make sure I am seeing that right.

Also how strong is the GFDL forecasting 94L to get?

The GFDL doesn't do much with 94L, intensity wise. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[MWatkins]

The GFS doesn't do anything with 94L...but the pattern is going to get interesting IF 94 develops and IF it holds together for 5 days...neither of which is close to certain.

If 94l develops and stays weak (or if it doesn't develop any further from where it is right now)...a westward track into Central America seems pretty reasonable.

However, if it does deepen more than expected and gets into a deeper steering layer, this GFS is laying out an interesting scenario.

By day 5 the model wants to develop a pretty good dip in the westerlies with a big low centered over the Great Lakes. This could create south-easterly flow in the western Caribbean and give 94 a chance to sneak out:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120m.gif

From there, of course the devil is in the details. If the trough is less pronounced no change from a westerly heading happens. If the trough is a little deeper then it could turn a deeper cyclone more to the north.

If there is no trough (and that's a good possibility) then it won't matter how strong 94L gets, it won't have a chance to get north (and then it becomes a problem for the west Caribbean residents).

To me...right now, it looks like we have an open wave trying to close off a westerly wind. Of course, I'd like to wait for recon to do their job down there and see if there is actually a closed low...that's why they make the big bucks.

From there the odds are small of a strong system wandering the Caribbean...if the modeled upper pattern plays out there will be lots of shear around.

MW

[Ed Mahmoud]

If you track the moisture with 94L on the GFS, it eventually brings beneficial rains to Texas in about a week. That obviously is steering for a week system, a stronger system would probably try to stay South under the ridge.


I'm waiting for 4 panel tropical charts at PSU e-Wall to post, easier to figure things out looking at mid and upper pattern as well as the surface.


weak, not week, homonyms kick my b*tt.

[Derek Ortt]

of note... the shallow BMS was well to the north of the deep BAM

[gatorcane]

Mike Watkins, your consensus is pretty much in line with mine that I posted earlier (I quoted it below). I DO think things could get interesting down the road if 94L could deepen into something signficant.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I took at look at the GFS ensemble to help figure this question out. It would depend on how strong 94L gets but what looks like will happen is that Bertha will create a general weakness in the Western Atlantic but since 94L is shallow should flow with the easterlies. A Bermuda High ridge then quickly replaces Bertha's weakness. Some GOM-FL ridging also builds in once the GOM invest pulls out the the NE. These synoptics indicate a cone would generally point W for the 1-2 day timeframe then a small bend towards the WNW with not much strengthening of 94L...possibly a Tropical storm for this period.

Beyond 5 days at about 144 hours the GFS progs the Bermuda High to slowly shift eastward. That could allow the cone to bend a bit more WNW to NW at the end of the forecast period but the initial NHC cone would probably not show much of any "bend" to the NW at all. It's too early to tell at this point and there is no need to show such a bend at this time due to uncertainty.

[MWatkins]

of note... the shallow BMS was well to the north of the deep BAM

Perhaps a limitation of the baratropic model? I'm not sure. Looking at the flow at 850MB from now to day 7...looks pretty zonal to me. The biggest bend in the extended period is at day 5:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120m.gif

By day 7 it's totally flat again:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_162m.gif

The flow at 700MB looks similar, but maybe more of a bend:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120m.gif

Then back to zonal by day 7:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_162m.gif

Then again it's the GFS...I suppose the same variables apply at any level you look at it...I just have a hard time buying this getting out of the Caribbean as a weak system...

MW

[gatorcane]

Mike Watkins I agree with you, I see future 94L making that North turn only if it deepens. At Day 5 there is still a decent (albeit weakening) GOM-FL ridge that may just be enough to keep it heading mostly West to WNW. Hard to say yet. That trough swinging through the Great Lakes will be key to the forecast. Its interesting to note that we have had some powerful short waves this summer so far though which has not allowed any kind of Bermuda High feature to establish itself.

[KWT]

Its interesting but shear just looks pretty severe from the word go and is going to hinder this system constantly. We may well get a weak TS head westwards but I don't think it has much chance of deepening enough to tap into the deep steering currents.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Shear actually doesn't look too bad for the next day or so (assuming the storm stays on a W or WNW course)...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

...I mean it is not great or anything, but it is definitely not deadly either.

[Thunder44]

WHXX01 KWBC 161855
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1855 UTC WED JUL 16 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080716 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080716 1800 080717 0600 080717 1800 080718 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.3N 58.7W 12.0N 61.0W 11.9N 63.4W 11.9N 65.9W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080718 1800 080719 1800 080720 1800 080721 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.2N 68.5W 13.3N 73.9W 14.4N 79.0W 15.2N 83.6W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.3N LONCUR = 58.7W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 22KT
LATM12 = 12.2N LONM12 = 53.8W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 23KT
LATM24 = 12.5N LONM24 = 50.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

No upgrade yet. Pressure down to 1009mb.

[Ed Mahmoud]

New GFDL pretty weak, similar track to Canadian, just a tad farther North at the end, Yucatan instead of Nicaragua.

[wxman57]

New run with data this time. Still Invest 94L

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1949 UTC WED JUL 16 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080716 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080716 1800 080717 0600 080717 1800 080718 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.3N 58.7W 12.8N 62.6W 13.7N 66.1W 14.2N 69.2W
BAMD 12.3N 58.7W 12.0N 61.0W 11.9N 63.4W 11.9N 65.9W
BAMM 12.3N 58.7W 12.4N 61.7W 12.7N 64.7W 13.1N 67.5W
LBAR 12.3N 58.7W 12.1N 62.1W 12.2N 65.9W 12.3N 69.9W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 43KTS 50KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 43KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080718 1800 080719 1800 080720 1800 080721 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.1N 72.6W 17.4N 80.0W 18.9N 87.2W 19.0N 92.2W
BAMD 12.2N 68.5W 13.3N 73.9W 14.4N 79.0W 15.2N 83.6W
BAMM 14.1N 70.4W 16.8N 76.3W 19.6N 82.2W 21.2N 87.2W
LBAR 13.0N 73.8W 15.1N 80.4W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 56KTS 67KTS 73KTS 81KTS
DSHP 56KTS 67KTS 73KTS 68KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.3N LONCUR = 58.7W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 22KT
LATM12 = 12.2N LONM12 = 53.8W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 23KT
LATM24 = 12.5N LONM24 = 50.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[americanrebel]

If I understand this correctly the SHIPs predicts 94L to be a hurricane in 120 hours. Interesting.

[RL3AO]

If I understand this correctly the SHIPs predicts 94L to be a hurricane in 120 hours. Interesting.

It must have really lowered the shear forecast this run. The shear was in the 20s and 30s almost the entire run at 12z.

[KWT]

Yep its interesting, then again they also show this system being a 37kt tropical storm in 12hrs time and given its current set-up I'm not really believeing that!

Edit---Btw those shear forecasts from the SHIPS were based on this ssytem getting up towards 16-19N in the latter time period so I'm not sure how dependable that really is given its going to track way south of there probably in lower shear.

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL is BOC bound after crossing the Yucatan:

208
WHXX04 KWBC 162332
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 18Z JUL 16

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.0 58.6 270./21.9
6 12.3 60.0 282./14.1
12 12.3 61.6 271./16.0
18 12.4 63.1 274./14.1
24 12.8 64.6 285./15.3
30 12.9 66.2 272./15.5
36 13.1 67.8 277./16.1
42 13.4 69.8 279./19.1
48 13.8 71.6 282./18.2
54 14.1 73.4 279./17.8
60 14.4 75.2 282./17.3
66 14.6 76.9 278./16.8
72 15.3 78.4 294./16.4
78 16.5 79.5 317./15.3
84 16.9 81.8 281./22.8
90 17.7 83.6 294./18.8
96 18.3 85.9 285./22.8
102 18.3 87.8 271./17.7
108 18.5 89.4 277./15.3
114 18.8 90.7 282./12.5
120 19.1 91.9 286./11.7
126 19.2 93.2 275./12.8

[Ivanhater]

will be interesting to see how strong the GFDL makes it...

[cycloneye]

will be interesting to see how strong the GFDL makes it...

Makes it briefly a hurricane in the Western Caribbean.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation