5pm....

[Air Force Met]

TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2003

CLAUDETTE MAY HAVE BEEN A HURRICANE AT 1530Z. THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 76 KT...AND AN EYEWALL DROPSONDE INDICATED SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AT THE SURFACE. TWO HOURS LATER...THE PLANE FOUND A FRAGMENTED WINDFIELD NEAR THE
DECAYED EYEWALL...WITH WINDS LOWER AND PRESSURES HIGHER THAN MEASURED ON THE PREVIOUS PASS. WHILE THE PLANE REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1005 MB...IT DID NOT GET A GOOD CENTER FIX AND THE INITIAL WIND AND PRESSURE WILL REMAIN 60 KT AND 993 MB UNTIL THE NEXT PLANE ARRIVES. HOWEVER...THESE ARE LIKELY GENEROUS ESTIMATES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SINCE THE AIRCRAFT LEFT... SATELLITE IMAGERY HINTS AT AN EXPOSED CENTER SOUTHWEST OF THE CONVECTION AND THE POSSIBLE RE-ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CURRENT
POSITION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/12. OTHER THAN
THAT...THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS A BROKEN RECORD...THE SAME AS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. CLAUDETTE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 48-72 HR ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...THEN SLOW AND TURN WESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. SOME MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTS A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72 HR
DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION...AND SIMILAR TO THE TRACK AFTER 72 HR BASED ON THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT AT 120 HR THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS BETWEEN THE GFDL LANDFALL NEAR FREEPORT TEXAS AND THE UKMET LANDFALL NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO...SO IT IS TOO EARLY TO NARROW DOWN THE THREAT AREA.

WHILE CLAUDETTE HAS GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS...THERE IS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDERCUTTING THEOUTFLOW AND SHEARING THE STORM. LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH 96 HR...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR
STRENGTHENING...ALBEIT LESS THAN FORECAST EARLIER. THIS
STRENGTHENING MAY VERY WELL COME IN BURSTS AS SEEN THIS MORNING.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/2100Z 18.6N 84.2W 60 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 19.9N 85.7W 65 KT
24HR VT 11/1800Z 21.6N 87.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 12/0600Z 23.1N 89.6W 55 KT
48HR VT 12/1800Z 24.2N 91.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 13/1800Z 25.5N 93.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 14/1800Z 26.0N 95.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 15/1800Z 26.0N 97.5W 70 KT...INLAND

[cycloneye]

It was a hurricane briefly this afternoon.When it gets into the GOm all bets are off according to discussion and they dont know yet where it will go as they say it is too early to narrow down where it will make landfall.

[Johnny]

Pretty much the same forescast as earliar. Lots of uncertainty in this 'Tropical Discussion'. They are still bringing this thing over the Yucatan. Do y'all agree with this? Also I noticed this in the discussion.



DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION...AND SIMILAR TO THE TRACK AFTER 72 HR BASED ON THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT AT 120 HR THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS BETWEEN THE GFDL LANDFALL NEAR FREEPORT TEXAS AND THE UKMET LANDFALL NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO...SO IT IS TOO EARLY TO NARROW DOWN THE THREAT AREA.

This tells us that models are shifting around a bit. To all of you trying to forecast this sweetheart, good luck!!

[Air Force Met]

I've noticed now the GFDL and the NOGAPS have moved north...

[Guest]

Do you agree with them Air Force Met?

[Lindaloo]

The GFDL has moved it towards you ticka. But the NoGaps has moved it into Brownsville. At least that is what I am seeing.

[Guest]

I say as of right now throw out the models! And keep a eye on what is happening farther north into the US and of course the ull.............imo too many people are following the models to closely and not the patterns elsewhere like the trough that is a bit stronger and heading for the eastcoast..............Which like the ull the models have been pretty much wrong about...............I will leave it at that........

[Guest]

Yeah Lindaloo I see .... just something else to add to the confusion of making decisions - you know what I mean. But I think I have time on my side.

[PTrackerLA]

Ticka it could be your turn..., Lili's evil cousin lol.

[ColdFront77]

Exactly right, Harry. Even with using the forecast models, they shouldn't be used to think that a tropical cyclone is always definately going to move in that direction even with back to back runs with similar landfalls.

[Lindaloo]

Yeah Lindaloo I see .... just something else to add to the confusion of making decisions - you know what I mean. But I think I have time on my side.

I must say it is better to be safe than sorry. I would go ahead and stockpile anyway. Measure that plywood and cut it to fit each window and door (number it). If you do not need it (hopefully not) then you can easily store it away for the next threat. Which we all know is possible EVERY cane season. It would not hurt one bit to go ahead and get ready, because ya just never know.