E Caribbean preparations / observations thread
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MiamiensisWx
E Caribbean preparations / observations thread
Since 94L will very likely develop and even a tropical wave axis can cause heavy precip (and associated mudslides/flash flooding) in the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean islands, I thought it would be prudent to start this thread.
Last edited by MiamiensisWx on Sun Jul 13, 2008 11:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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MiamiensisWx
Re: 94L: E Caribbean preparations/observations thread
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 131453
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1053 AM AST SUN JUL 13 2008
.UPDATE...PREVIOUS REASONING REMAINS ON TRACK. THE MAIN STORY
CONCERNS THE UPCOMING WEEK...PLEASE READ DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM AST SUN JUL 13 2008/
DISCUSSION...IF TRENDS CONTINUE...IT APPEARS THAT AN INTERESTING
AND RATHER ACTIVE NEXT 7 DAYS MAY BE AHEAD FOR THE LOCAL REGION.
GIVEN SOME CHANGES IN MODEL GUIDANCE THIS MORNING...TRIED TO
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY IN GRIDS AND FORECASTS AGAIN...AND MADE ONLY
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS. GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR TODAY...BUT STILL WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR
SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A BAND OF MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
MONDAY AND SHOULD COINCIDE WITH DECENT HEATING...SO A LITTLE MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
BRIEF DRYING MAY OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT/VERY EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE
THE MOISTURE FROM THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE SPREADS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS DURING TUESDAY. IT IS HERE WHERE THE GFS MODEL HAS
CHANGED ITS SOLUTION...KEEPING THE DEEPEST MOISTURE JUST SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND MOVING THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN A
BIT FASTER THAN BEFORE. STILL BELIEVE THAT FA WILL RECEIVE A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
AND GUSTY WINDS AS THIS FEATURE PASSES BY...BUT PERHAPS NOT AS
ACTIVE AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. DRIER WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED
BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE PLOT THICKENS AGAIN...AS GFS NOW BRINGS
ANOTHER PERTURBATION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. TAKING A LOOK AT SATELLITE DATA AND ANALYSES AND
COMPARING THEM TO MODEL DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE NORTHERN VORTEX
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 37 WEST EARLY THIS MORNING OR A SEPARATE
PERTURBATION ALTOGETHER...WILL BE FORCED OUT AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN
VORTEX OF THIS WAVE...WHICH WILL LAG BEHIND ALONG THE ITCZ. THIS
MORE NORTHERN FEATURE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS...AND THEN AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR AGAIN ENCOMPASSING THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
LOOKING AHEAD...WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN VORTEX OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 37
WEST...AS MOST GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE
DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED SURFACE SYSTEM AND HEADING IN THE GENERAL
DIRECTION OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN LATE IN THIS UPCOMING WEEK OR
OVER THE WEEKEND. WAY TOO EARLY TO SAY ANYTHING ELSE OTHER THAN IT
IS WORTH WATCHING.
AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY DURING THE 18Z-22Z TIME FRAME.
MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT EAST NORTHEAST OR EAST WINDS OF 11 TO
23 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 7 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGHEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY DUE TO THE
APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 87 76 / 20 20 20 30
STT 90 78 89 76 / 20 20 30 50
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&
$$
93/04
San Juan, PR NWS WFO AFD:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=AFD&issuedby=SJU
FXCA62 TJSJ 131453
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1053 AM AST SUN JUL 13 2008
.UPDATE...PREVIOUS REASONING REMAINS ON TRACK. THE MAIN STORY
CONCERNS THE UPCOMING WEEK...PLEASE READ DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM AST SUN JUL 13 2008/
DISCUSSION...IF TRENDS CONTINUE...IT APPEARS THAT AN INTERESTING
AND RATHER ACTIVE NEXT 7 DAYS MAY BE AHEAD FOR THE LOCAL REGION.
GIVEN SOME CHANGES IN MODEL GUIDANCE THIS MORNING...TRIED TO
MAINTAIN CONTINUITY IN GRIDS AND FORECASTS AGAIN...AND MADE ONLY
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS. GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR TODAY...BUT STILL WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR
SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. A BAND OF MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
MONDAY AND SHOULD COINCIDE WITH DECENT HEATING...SO A LITTLE MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
BRIEF DRYING MAY OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT/VERY EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE
THE MOISTURE FROM THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE SPREADS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS DURING TUESDAY. IT IS HERE WHERE THE GFS MODEL HAS
CHANGED ITS SOLUTION...KEEPING THE DEEPEST MOISTURE JUST SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND MOVING THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN A
BIT FASTER THAN BEFORE. STILL BELIEVE THAT FA WILL RECEIVE A
NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
AND GUSTY WINDS AS THIS FEATURE PASSES BY...BUT PERHAPS NOT AS
ACTIVE AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. DRIER WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED
BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE PLOT THICKENS AGAIN...AS GFS NOW BRINGS
ANOTHER PERTURBATION AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. TAKING A LOOK AT SATELLITE DATA AND ANALYSES AND
COMPARING THEM TO MODEL DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE NORTHERN VORTEX
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 37 WEST EARLY THIS MORNING OR A SEPARATE
PERTURBATION ALTOGETHER...WILL BE FORCED OUT AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN
VORTEX OF THIS WAVE...WHICH WILL LAG BEHIND ALONG THE ITCZ. THIS
MORE NORTHERN FEATURE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS...AND THEN AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR AGAIN ENCOMPASSING THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
LOOKING AHEAD...WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN VORTEX OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 37
WEST...AS MOST GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE
DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED SURFACE SYSTEM AND HEADING IN THE GENERAL
DIRECTION OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN LATE IN THIS UPCOMING WEEK OR
OVER THE WEEKEND. WAY TOO EARLY TO SAY ANYTHING ELSE OTHER THAN IT
IS WORTH WATCHING.
AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY DURING THE 18Z-22Z TIME FRAME.
MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT EAST NORTHEAST OR EAST WINDS OF 11 TO
23 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 7 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGHEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY DUE TO THE
APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 87 76 / 20 20 20 30
STT 90 78 89 76 / 20 20 30 50
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&
$$
93/04
San Juan, PR NWS WFO AFD:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=AFD&issuedby=SJU
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145814
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 94L: E Caribbean preparations/observations thread
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST SUN JUL 13 2008
.DISCUSSION...VERY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. A FEW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER
THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THE PAST
HOUR...BUT THESE SHOWERS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THEY ARE EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET.
THE DRY AND STABLE AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL
SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TOMORROW AS AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE ADVECTS SOME
MOISTURE OUR WAY. THE LATEST NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
WINDS AND PRECIP THAN 12Z GFS MODEL WITH THIS WAVE...WHICH TAKES
THE BULK OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH...BUT STILL
SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
CLOUDS...WINDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE USVI AND PR ON
TUESDAY AS A SURGE IN SATELLITE DERIVED TPW CAN ALREADY BE SEEN
HEADED OUR WAY. FOR THIS REASON...WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY...SHADING THE WORST WEATHER JUST SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...WHILE THE BULK OF THE WORST WEATHER WILL BE
TUESDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR TOMORROW AHEAD OF THIS WAVE.
ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES BY THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY...A RETURN TO A FAIRLY
ACTIVE...MAINLY DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWER PATTERN...CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AND THE
FOCUS OF ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY NEAR 38W. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BOTH TRY AND DEVELOP A
CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH THIS WAVE...WITH A TRACK THAT WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR CLOSELY. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED CIRCULATION SEEMS
IN ALIGNMENT WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING A WELL
DEFINED AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING. EVEN SO...NO SIGNIFICANT
UPDATES WARRANTED TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS THE
EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF ANY LOW THAT FORMS OUT OF THIS WAVE
REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST SUN JUL 13 2008
.DISCUSSION...VERY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY OBSERVED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. A FEW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER
THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THE PAST
HOUR...BUT THESE SHOWERS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THEY ARE EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET.
THE DRY AND STABLE AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL
SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TOMORROW AS AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE ADVECTS SOME
MOISTURE OUR WAY. THE LATEST NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
WINDS AND PRECIP THAN 12Z GFS MODEL WITH THIS WAVE...WHICH TAKES
THE BULK OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH...BUT STILL
SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
CLOUDS...WINDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE USVI AND PR ON
TUESDAY AS A SURGE IN SATELLITE DERIVED TPW CAN ALREADY BE SEEN
HEADED OUR WAY. FOR THIS REASON...WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY...SHADING THE WORST WEATHER JUST SOUTH OF THE
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...WHILE THE BULK OF THE WORST WEATHER WILL BE
TUESDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR TOMORROW AHEAD OF THIS WAVE.
ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES BY THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY...A RETURN TO A FAIRLY
ACTIVE...MAINLY DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWER PATTERN...CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AND THE
FOCUS OF ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY NEAR 38W. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BOTH TRY AND DEVELOP A
CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH THIS WAVE...WITH A TRACK THAT WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR CLOSELY. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED CIRCULATION SEEMS
IN ALIGNMENT WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING A WELL
DEFINED AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING. EVEN SO...NO SIGNIFICANT
UPDATES WARRANTED TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS THE
EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF ANY LOW THAT FORMS OUT OF THIS WAVE
REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
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Re: E Caribbean preparations / observations thread
hi.sorry i' m a new of this forum,i'm not an expert,but only a lady that live in sint maarten. and sorry also for my bad english....i'm italian.
my question is,how many probability we have that the 94L pass on us...my position is18.0 north and 63.1 ouest.
thank you very much!
my question is,how many probability we have that the 94L pass on us...my position is18.0 north and 63.1 ouest.
thank you very much!
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Re: E Caribbean preparations / observations thread
PattySXM wrote:hi.sorry i' m a new of this forum,i'm not an expert,but only a lady that live in sint maarten. and sorry also for my bad english....i'm italian.
my question is,how many probability we have that the 94L pass on us...my position is18.0 north and 63.1 ouest.
thank you very much!
Too early to give odds. Watch it very closely.
Bookmark the link to the National Hurricane Center if you haven't yet.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Last edited by RL3AO on Sun Jul 13, 2008 10:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145814
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E Caribbean preparations / observations thread
I will put a pin to the thread for all the Caribbean Members to post observations,radars etc from the islands.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145814
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E Caribbean preparations / observations thread
AFDSJU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
618 AM AST WED JUL 16 2008
.SYNOPSIS...A WIND SURGE CONTINUES OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS JUST
SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS MORNING. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED NEAR 55 WEST...IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA
THURSDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BEHIND THIS TROPICAL WAVE...BEFORE
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR 35 WEST...MOVES ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...A WIND SURGE MOVED ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WIND SURGE
IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. AFTER THIS FEATURE MOVES AWAY FROM OUR
LOCAL REGION...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE.
THE ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR 55 WEST EARLY THIS
MORNING...CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD...APPROACHING THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IN THIS WAVE...HOWEVER IT IS NOT AS WELL
ORGANIZED AS IT WAS 36 HOURS AGO. THE 06Z NAM MODEL PASSES THE MOST
ACTIVE WEATHER FROM THIS WAVE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IN FACT...THE MODEL SHOWS THAT OUR LOCAL AREA
WILL STAY DRY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVE BY. THE GFS MODEL...ON THE
OTHER HAND...SHOWS A WEAKER SYSTEM...MAINTAINING DRY AIR OVER THE
LOCAL AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
PASS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM THIS
WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...IT IS EXPECTED THAT ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER 35 WEST...WILL BRING ACTIVE WEATHER
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. GRIDS WERE MODIFIED ACCORDINGLY FOR THE PASSAGE
OF BOTH SYSTEMS. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH EITHER WAVE AT
THIS TIME.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
618 AM AST WED JUL 16 2008
.SYNOPSIS...A WIND SURGE CONTINUES OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS JUST
SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS MORNING. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED NEAR 55 WEST...IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA
THURSDAY...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BEHIND THIS TROPICAL WAVE...BEFORE
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR 35 WEST...MOVES ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...A WIND SURGE MOVED ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WIND SURGE
IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. AFTER THIS FEATURE MOVES AWAY FROM OUR
LOCAL REGION...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE.
THE ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR 55 WEST EARLY THIS
MORNING...CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD...APPROACHING THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IN THIS WAVE...HOWEVER IT IS NOT AS WELL
ORGANIZED AS IT WAS 36 HOURS AGO. THE 06Z NAM MODEL PASSES THE MOST
ACTIVE WEATHER FROM THIS WAVE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IN FACT...THE MODEL SHOWS THAT OUR LOCAL AREA
WILL STAY DRY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVE BY. THE GFS MODEL...ON THE
OTHER HAND...SHOWS A WEAKER SYSTEM...MAINTAINING DRY AIR OVER THE
LOCAL AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
PASS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM THIS
WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...IT IS EXPECTED THAT ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER 35 WEST...WILL BRING ACTIVE WEATHER
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. GRIDS WERE MODIFIED ACCORDINGLY FOR THE PASSAGE
OF BOTH SYSTEMS. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH EITHER WAVE AT
THIS TIME.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145814
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E Caribbean preparations / observations thread
The leading edge of the convection is very close to Barbados:
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
7am much more convection on this pertubed area....
Martinica has put an yellow alert since yesterday night 5 pm..for strong winds ( 40 to 60 km sustained winds)with gusts to 80 to 100 km per hour in some areas) and showers added to thunderstorms.Waves should approach 2 meters 50 and a little more.
And us in Guadeloupe will pass this afternoon in yellow alert too given the latest weather forecast of our Pro Met at Meteo France for strong winds showers/ thunderstorms.
We stay tuned here in Guadeloupe because of the better organization of the system approaching the windwards islands.....
7am much more convection on this pertubed area....
Martinica has put an yellow alert since yesterday night 5 pm..for strong winds ( 40 to 60 km sustained winds)with gusts to 80 to 100 km per hour in some areas) and showers added to thunderstorms.Waves should approach 2 meters 50 and a little more.
And us in Guadeloupe will pass this afternoon in yellow alert too given the latest weather forecast of our Pro Met at Meteo France for strong winds showers/ thunderstorms.
We stay tuned here in Guadeloupe because of the better organization of the system approaching the windwards islands.....
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145814
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E Caribbean preparations / observations thread
Gustywind,do you have the Martinique radar link?
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145814
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E Caribbean preparations / observations thread
Current Weather Conditions:
Grantley Adams, Barbados
(TBPB) 13-04N 059-29W 56M
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Conditions at Jul 16, 2008 - 08:00 AM EDTJul 16, 2008 - 07:00 AM CDTJul 16, 2008 - 06:00 AM MDTJul 16, 2008 - 05:00 AM PDTJul 16, 2008 - 04:00 AM ADTJul 16, 2008 - 03:00 AM HDT
2008.07.16 1200 UTC
Wind from the NE (040 degrees) at 21 MPH (18 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Temperature 82 F (28 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 78%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.91 in. Hg (1013 hPa)
ob TBPB 161200Z 04018KT 9999 SCT016 BKN300 28/24 Q1013
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Grantley Adams, Barbados
(TBPB) 13-04N 059-29W 56M
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Conditions at Jul 16, 2008 - 08:00 AM EDTJul 16, 2008 - 07:00 AM CDTJul 16, 2008 - 06:00 AM MDTJul 16, 2008 - 05:00 AM PDTJul 16, 2008 - 04:00 AM ADTJul 16, 2008 - 03:00 AM HDT
2008.07.16 1200 UTC
Wind from the NE (040 degrees) at 21 MPH (18 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Temperature 82 F (28 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 78%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.91 in. Hg (1013 hPa)
ob TBPB 161200Z 04018KT 9999 SCT016 BKN300 28/24 Q1013
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: E Caribbean preparations / observations thread
cycloneye wrote:Gustywind,do you have the Martinique radar link?
Yeah Cycloneye try this link
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.htmlhttp://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... C_car.html
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Current Weather Conditions:
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe, Guadeloupe
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 8 AM
Wind from the ENE (060 degrees) at 12 MPH (10 KT) (direction variable)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions partly cloudy
Temperature 82 F (28 C)
Dew Point 73 F (23 C)
Relative Humidity 74%
Pressure (altimeter) 30.00 in. Hg (1016 hPa)
ob TFFR 161200Z 06010KT 360V100 9999 SCT020 SCT280 28/23 Q1016 NOSIG
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TFFR.html
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe, Guadeloupe
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 8 AM
Wind from the ENE (060 degrees) at 12 MPH (10 KT) (direction variable)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions partly cloudy
Temperature 82 F (28 C)
Dew Point 73 F (23 C)
Relative Humidity 74%
Pressure (altimeter) 30.00 in. Hg (1016 hPa)
ob TFFR 161200Z 06010KT 360V100 9999 SCT020 SCT280 28/23 Q1016 NOSIG
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TFFR.html
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Gustywind
- Category 5
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Re: E Caribbean preparations / observations thread
cycloneye wrote:Gustywind,do you have the Martinique radar link?
You also can try these links for sat pics Cycloneye
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... imVS2.html
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ISAT2.html
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagguy.jpg
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cycloneye
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Re: E Caribbean preparations / observations thread
Current Weather Conditions:
Grantley Adams, Barbados
(TBPB) 13-04N 059-29W 56M
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Conditions at Jul 16, 2008 - 09:00 AM EDTJul 16, 2008 - 08:00 AM CDTJul 16, 2008 - 07:00 AM MDTJul 16, 2008 - 06:00 AM PDTJul 16, 2008 - 05:00 AM ADTJul 16, 2008 - 04:00 AM HDT
2008.07.16 1300 UTC
Wind from the NE (040 degrees) at 23 MPH (20 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Temperature 82 F (28 C)
Dew Point 77 F (25 C)
Relative Humidity 83%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.94 in. Hg (1014 hPa)
ob TBPB 161300Z 04020KT 9999 SCT016 SCT038 BKN300 28/25 Q1014
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Grantley Adams, Barbados
(TBPB) 13-04N 059-29W 56M
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Conditions at Jul 16, 2008 - 09:00 AM EDTJul 16, 2008 - 08:00 AM CDTJul 16, 2008 - 07:00 AM MDTJul 16, 2008 - 06:00 AM PDTJul 16, 2008 - 05:00 AM ADTJul 16, 2008 - 04:00 AM HDT
2008.07.16 1300 UTC
Wind from the NE (040 degrees) at 23 MPH (20 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Temperature 82 F (28 C)
Dew Point 77 F (25 C)
Relative Humidity 83%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.94 in. Hg (1014 hPa)
ob TBPB 161300Z 04020KT 9999 SCT016 SCT038 BKN300 28/25 Q1014
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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