ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

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Chacor
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L=8 AM EDT bTWO=Better Organized

#1481 Postby Chacor » Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:01 am

Blown_away wrote:What is the latest position and forward speed for 94L?


AL, 94, 2008071606, , BEST, 0, 127N, 532W, 25, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 120, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

12.7N 53.2W is what ATCF says.

Six hours ago: AL, 94, 2008071600, , BEST, 0, 126N, 518W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 140, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

12.6N 51.8W to 12.7N 53.2W is almost due west at 14 kts.
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#1482 Postby NDG » Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:06 am

This radar loop will give us a good indication as the circulation axis gets closer later on this afternoon, along with the reports from Barbados.
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L near the Windward Islands

#1483 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:08 am

I also, still think this is just a wave, BUT there is a LLC developing for sure. I can cleary see that the inflow has dramatically improved with this.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L near the Windward Islands

#1484 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:09 am

The latest Best track has it at 30kts:

AL, 94, 2008071612, , BEST, 0, 122N, 565W, 30, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 120, 45, 0, 0,
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L near the Windward Islands

#1485 Postby wzrgirl1 » Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:10 am

Looks good but about to hit some shear probably by tomorrow....if anything, maybe a td or ts but that may be it, especially without a LLC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L near the Windward Islands

#1486 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:11 am

Looking at surface obs, I see a few ship reports south the system, showing E to SE winds. Also many of the the obs, are reporting rising pressues in the last couple hours. Barbados just rose 1mb to 1014mb at 9am. So I'm don't think there's much more organization going on at the surface yet. But there seems to be more rotation than earlier at least mid-levels on visible imagery. So perhaps something may work down to the surface later on.
Last edited by Thunder44 on Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:12 am, edited 2 times in total.
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#1487 Postby NDG » Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:11 am

But not a typical tropical wave by no means.
I always thought that a typical tropical wave will have a NE wind before the trough passage and a sharp SE wind after the trough's passage.
SW & W winds on a tropical wave are of a rarety.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L near the Windward Islands

#1488 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:12 am

It looks better this morning, granted, but WxMan57 is rarely wrong. Now, I know how it feels to have the model at 262 hours show precip with sub 540 dm thicknesses and below freezing 850 mb temps, and have a pro-met insist it won't snow in Houston. Really, I do.

But it is like my goal of being a professional baseball pitcher that also practiced medicine, like my hero, Doc Medich. Note I neither play for the Yankees, nor do I perform brain surgery.


Note the new GFDL loses this at 60 hours, and the 12Z SHIPS is pretty lackadaisical.


So, between Derek, Dr. McCoy, and unimpressed models, I have to assign a probability with many more significant figures than are required in an attempt to imply more accuracy that I possess, a 57.314% chance recon is cancelled, and only a 31.147% of this becoming a tropical cyclone to the East of about 85ºW.


Unofficially, of course.


Unofficially.
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#1489 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:15 am

Ed - I think the chance of Recon being cancelled is probably closer to 1-2%. The NHC has already mentioned it in their TWO and the plane is set to leave in about 2 hours. Unless the system dramatically falls apart soon, I doubt that it would be cancelled.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L near the Windward Islands

#1490 Postby NDG » Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:15 am

Thunder44 wrote:Looking at surface obs, I see a few ship reports south the system, showing E to SE winds. Also many of the the obs, are reporting rising pressues in the last couple hours. Barbados just rose 1mb to 1014mb at 9am. So I'm don't think there's much more organization going on at the surface yet. But there seems to be more rotation than earlier at least mid-levels on visible imagery. So perhaps something may work down to the surface later on.


Thunder44, the only ship report that I see south of this system that reported an easterly wind is around 300 miles to the south of this system, which only a big well developed system will have a circulation reaching that far south.
Is there another ship report closer to the south of this system that you see?
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Re:

#1491 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:17 am

NDG wrote:Thanks for ignoring my question Derek, :wink:


ask all questions to the mets in the parallel thread in the tropical analysis forum, not here
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L near the Windward Islands

#1492 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:20 am

NDG wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:Looking at surface obs, I see a few ship reports south the system, showing E to SE winds. Also many of the the obs, are reporting rising pressues in the last couple hours. Barbados just rose 1mb to 1014mb at 9am. So I'm don't think there's much more organization going on at the surface yet. But there seems to be more rotation than earlier at least mid-levels on visible imagery. So perhaps something may work down to the surface later on.


Thunder44, the only ship report that I see south of this system that reported an easterly wind is around 300 miles to the south of this system, which only a big well developed system will have a circulation reaching that far south.
Is there another ship report closer to the south of this system that you see?


I believe we are seeing the same ship report.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L near the Windward Islands

#1493 Postby NDG » Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:23 am

Thunder44 wrote:
NDG wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:Looking at surface obs, I see a few ship reports south the system, showing E to SE winds. Also many of the the obs, are reporting rising pressues in the last couple hours. Barbados just rose 1mb to 1014mb at 9am. So I'm don't think there's much more organization going on at the surface yet. But there seems to be more rotation than earlier at least mid-levels on visible imagery. So perhaps something may work down to the surface later on.


Thunder44, the only ship report that I see south of this system that reported an easterly wind is around 300 miles to the south of this system, which only a big well developed system will have a circulation reaching that far south.
Is there another ship report closer to the south of this system that you see?


I believe we are seeing the same ship report.


Well, I believe we need a closer ship report than that to that take that into account.
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#1494 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:27 am

I checked some buoy and nearby ship reports. Buoy 41100 (LAT: 15.90N and LON: 59.90W) is reporting a sustained wind of 21-24 Knots from the ENE. That is a noticeable increase from yesterday where it was at around 15 Knots.

Pressures are generally between 29.96-29.98 inches and slowly rising. So it does not appear we are seeing pressure drops.
Last edited by gatorcane on Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L near the Windward Islands

#1495 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:29 am

I don't really think so, NDG. The circulation to me looks like it would be large enough. This hasn't really been a very small system.
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#1496 Postby CycloneNL » Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:32 am

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L near the Windward Islands

#1497 Postby NDG » Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:37 am

Thunder44 wrote:I don't really think so, NDG. The circulation to me looks like it would be large enough. This hasn't really been a very small system.


Looking at the sat loop, I see easterly winds near 8N & 55W where this ship was, which I do not question its reports, but NW of it near 10N & 57W I see the light W & WSW winds that I think are present with this system, so if we could get a ship report closer to that area, it will help me to clarify it.
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#1498 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:38 am

Here is the big picture. This is the best 94L has looked so far:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L near the Windward Islands

#1499 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:39 am

I have lovingly baked this close up visible loop of 94L using the NASA brand satellite and brownie mix.

Don't quite see a clear indication of a West wind South of the apparent rotation center, suggesting to me this is still just a sharp wave.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L near the Windward Islands

#1500 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:40 am

Image
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