ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Chacor]

What is the latest position and forward speed for 94L?

AL, 94, 2008071606, , BEST, 0, 127N, 532W, 25, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 120, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

12.7N 53.2W is what ATCF says.

Six hours ago: AL, 94, 2008071600, , BEST, 0, 126N, 518W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 140, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

12.6N 51.8W to 12.7N 53.2W is almost due west at 14 kts.

[NDG]

This radar loop will give us a good indication as the circulation axis gets closer later on this afternoon, along with the reports from Barbados.

[deltadog03]

I also, still think this is just a wave, BUT there is a LLC developing for sure. I can cleary see that the inflow has dramatically improved with this.

[cycloneye]

The latest Best track has it at 30kts:

AL, 94, 2008071612, , BEST, 0, 122N, 565W, 30, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 120, 45, 0, 0,

[wzrgirl1]

Looks good but about to hit some shear probably by tomorrow....if anything, maybe a td or ts but that may be it, especially without a LLC

[Thunder44]

Looking at surface obs, I see a few ship reports south the system, showing E to SE winds. Also many of the the obs, are reporting rising pressues in the last couple hours. Barbados just rose 1mb to 1014mb at 9am. So I'm don't think there's much more organization going on at the surface yet. But there seems to be more rotation than earlier at least mid-levels on visible imagery. So perhaps something may work down to the surface later on.

[NDG]

But not a typical tropical wave by no means.
I always thought that a typical tropical wave will have a NE wind before the trough passage and a sharp SE wind after the trough's passage.
SW & W winds on a tropical wave are of a rarety.

[Ed Mahmoud]

It looks better this morning, granted, but WxMan57 is rarely wrong. Now, I know how it feels to have the model at 262 hours show precip with sub 540 dm thicknesses and below freezing 850 mb temps, and have a pro-met insist it won't snow in Houston. Really, I do.

But it is like my goal of being a professional baseball pitcher that also practiced medicine, like my hero, Doc Medich. Note I neither play for the Yankees, nor do I perform brain surgery.


Note the new GFDL loses this at 60 hours, and the 12Z SHIPS is pretty lackadaisical.


So, between Derek, Dr. McCoy, and unimpressed models, I have to assign a probability with many more significant figures than are required in an attempt to imply more accuracy that I possess, a 57.314% chance recon is cancelled, and only a 31.147% of this becoming a tropical cyclone to the East of about 85ºW.


Unofficially, of course.


Unofficially.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Ed - I think the chance of Recon being cancelled is probably closer to 1-2%. The NHC has already mentioned it in their TWO and the plane is set to leave in about 2 hours. Unless the system dramatically falls apart soon, I doubt that it would be cancelled.

[NDG]

Looking at surface obs, I see a few ship reports south the system, showing E to SE winds. Also many of the the obs, are reporting rising pressues in the last couple hours. Barbados just rose 1mb to 1014mb at 9am. So I'm don't think there's much more organization going on at the surface yet. But there seems to be more rotation than earlier at least mid-levels on visible imagery. So perhaps something may work down to the surface later on.

Thunder44, the only ship report that I see south of this system that reported an easterly wind is around 300 miles to the south of this system, which only a big well developed system will have a circulation reaching that far south.
Is there another ship report closer to the south of this system that you see?

[Derek Ortt]

Thanks for ignoring my question Derek,

ask all questions to the mets in the parallel thread in the tropical analysis forum, not here

[Thunder44]

Looking at surface obs, I see a few ship reports south the system, showing E to SE winds. Also many of the the obs, are reporting rising pressues in the last couple hours. Barbados just rose 1mb to 1014mb at 9am. So I'm don't think there's much more organization going on at the surface yet. But there seems to be more rotation than earlier at least mid-levels on visible imagery. So perhaps something may work down to the surface later on.

Thunder44, the only ship report that I see south of this system that reported an easterly wind is around 300 miles to the south of this system, which only a big well developed system will have a circulation reaching that far south.
Is there another ship report closer to the south of this system that you see?

I believe we are seeing the same ship report.

[NDG]

Looking at surface obs, I see a few ship reports south the system, showing E to SE winds. Also many of the the obs, are reporting rising pressues in the last couple hours. Barbados just rose 1mb to 1014mb at 9am. So I'm don't think there's much more organization going on at the surface yet. But there seems to be more rotation than earlier at least mid-levels on visible imagery. So perhaps something may work down to the surface later on.

Thunder44, the only ship report that I see south of this system that reported an easterly wind is around 300 miles to the south of this system, which only a big well developed system will have a circulation reaching that far south.
Is there another ship report closer to the south of this system that you see?

I believe we are seeing the same ship report.

Well, I believe we need a closer ship report than that to that take that into account.

[gatorcane]

I checked some buoy and nearby ship reports. Buoy 41100 (LAT: 15.90N and LON: 59.90W) is reporting a sustained wind of 21-24 Knots from the ENE. That is a noticeable increase from yesterday where it was at around 15 Knots.

Pressures are generally between 29.96-29.98 inches and slowly rising. So it does not appear we are seeing pressure drops.

[Thunder44]

I don't really think so, NDG. The circulation to me looks like it would be large enough. This hasn't really been a very small system.

[CycloneNL]

[NDG]

I don't really think so, NDG. The circulation to me looks like it would be large enough. This hasn't really been a very small system.

Looking at the sat loop, I see easterly winds near 8N & 55W where this ship was, which I do not question its reports, but NW of it near 10N & 57W I see the light W & WSW winds that I think are present with this system, so if we could get a ship report closer to that area, it will help me to clarify it.

[gatorcane]

Here is the big picture. This is the best 94L has looked so far:

[Ed Mahmoud]

I have lovingly baked this close up visible loop of 94L using the NASA brand satellite and brownie mix.

Don't quite see a clear indication of a West wind South of the apparent rotation center, suggesting to me this is still just a sharp wave.

[cycloneye]