ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[cycloneye]

NHC continues to show this:

[HurricaneHunter914]

Convergence does not like 94L. There's some to the south, there's some to the NW, but none in the middle. My interest in this is going down, but I think it still has a small chance at forming.

[TnTornado]

You gotta love wind shear and dry air.

[Ivanhater]

You gotta love wind shear and dry air.

True, but im interested in the area a little NW of the old low..odds are it wont take off, but not ready to pull the plug yet...

[TSmith274]

It was my understanding that dry air was this thing's biggest problem. Is that not correct?

[TnTornado]

It was my understanding that dry air was this thing's biggest problem. Is that not correct?

10-20 kts of shear isn't helping it any.

[TnTornado]

Shear is on the increase on the northern side. However, it is interesting to note that the shear in the Caribbean is decreasing just a little.

[Innotech]

this small storm has fought its way through the ITCZ, with considerable shear and dry air no less. I think it may still possibly develop given the slightest decrease in hostile conditions and is something that should be carefully monitored. Dont ignore this invest until it is absolutely dead, as past seasons have taught us. Especially not a storm that fights like this one.

[wxman57]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/gexyrshr.png

Based on this map I dont really see this thing getting into very strong shear...in fact, it looks like the strongest shear it could possibly run into in the caribbean is 20kt. Of course this is subject to change, and I currently dont think development is very likely...yet. Can I get some pro feedback about if development it possible in the w. carib? Water is very warm, very low shear, and I doubt much dry air.

That map shows only part of the story in the Caribbean. Low level winds (below 850mb) are projected to be in the 30-35 kt range in 94L's path. That's not a favorable environment.

[Ivanhater]

[cycloneye]

How many times we haved seen the 2.0?

15/2345 UTC 12.5N 51.7W T2.0/2.0 94L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[Ivanhater]

Im sorry but I think a new low is trying to form NW of the old one..could be wrong, wouldnt be the first time..but taking a look at the loop at this view, this new convection is very persistent..



Have any surface obs out there?

[chadtm80]

I really don't understand why it it is getting a 2.0

[Blown Away]

One thing that I've noticed is 94L appears to have slowed down. Convection still popping, much better than last night.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[HURAKAN]

Dvorak has a deep believe in 94L.

[cycloneye]

Ivanhater,here is a bouy (14.4n-53w) NW of the presumtive center.Pretty gusty there with NE winds.

Bouy 41040

[RL3AO]

Dvorak has a deep believe on 94L.

I think they are using the enhanced Dvorak in which the number of pages it has on S2K is included in the formula.


P.S. Yes chad, I read about the new rule. So I will include a quick mention about 94L.

Have fun watching this one, but it is just delaying the inevitable. Now that I said that, recon will probably find a TD tomorrow.

[Derek Ortt]

this small storm has fought its way through the ITCZ, with considerable shear and dry air no less. I think it may still possibly develop given the slightest decrease in hostile conditions and is something that should be carefully monitored. Dont ignore this invest until it is absolutely dead, as past seasons have taught us. Especially not a storm that fights like this one.

There was NO shear or dry air when it detatched itself from the ITCZ

Its problem was it detatched itself from the ITCZ before it formed a surface circulation. There was just not that much at the surface to develop

[brunota2003]

Can someone draw where they put the Dvorak position at? The only thing I could think of is maybe they put the center directly in the convection?

at RL3AO's post...I read it too =]

[Blown Away]

Can someone draw where they put the Dvorak position at? The only thing I could think of is maybe they put the center directly in the convection?
at RL3AO's post...I read it too =]

12.5N/51.7W, east side of convection.