ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[CrazyC83]

SSD still has T2.0 so it has to be pretty close.

[Derek Ortt]

its not going to develop... no use cheering this on

maybe thelow-level dynamics have improved... but now the upper winds are not exactly favorable

[KWT]

Its a hard one to call Hurakan, the NHC may decide that its finally held convection for long enough near the center to upgrade, equally they may just decide to wait for recon and risk the chance that it won't decay again in the 15-18hrs time gap.

Crazy, yep 2.0 would warrent a 30kt depression if they decided to go with it, I personally think they will wait for recon but its not dead yet it seems!

[Derek Ortt]

the convection has rapidly dissipated in the last 2 hours

this just about sums it up

na na na na
na na na na
hey hey hey hey
good-bye!

[RL3AO]

Its dead. Its still dead. It will still be dead tomorrow.

[KWT]

Well its weakened Derek but then again its heading towards Dmin, I would expect siome weakening to occur. Also upper level winds aren't that bad, they are certainly marginal IMO just for now on the right side still.

If convection continues to decrease then I will agree, its a watch and wait game to be honest.

[Derek Ortt]

there is no closed surface circulation (there never was one). Therefore, the convergence is going to be quite limited. The upper trough dropped over the system today, which increased the shear.

oh well... maybe I'll actually get to enjoy a Friday evening this week!

[SouthFloridawx]

EUMETSAT
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/DerivedProducts/MSG2/AIRMASS/AMERICA/index.htm

[KWT]

Well Qscat never showed one Derek but then again it has missed them before. Will be interesting to see what recon says tomorrow then, howver I do agree that upper trough is a problem, very evident on WV isn't it!

[Derek Ortt]

I'd venture that there is very little chance of recon actually flying tomorrow

[KWT]

Really Derek what about the 2.0 Dvorak estimate, I think if that holds or even goes down to 1.5 they may still fly just to be on the safe side. However if it does continue to decrease then maybe not worth bothering, who knows!

[Ed Mahmoud]

When no model but the CMC has this develop anymore, the SHIPs shows near steady state and high shear, the GFDL loses it almost immediately, and the two most frequent pro-mets both declare it dead, if I ran the Storm2K Sports Book, I'd give this 11-2 odds of ever being a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Basin.


I was as hyped as anyone yesterday, but this is a Pacific storm, at best.

The next MJO active phase arrives mid-August, and I suspect Joe B is right, that will be a track race.

[O Town]

Yeah I am seeing the lower level convergence, but no divergence in the upper levels, you do need both.
Yellow is the converg. and blue the diverg. in the image below.
Heck Im seeing just as much convergence in the wave behind 94.

[Derek Ortt]

again, I am not sure how the 2.0 estimate was arrived at. It looks more like a 1.0 or a too weak to me

[KWT]

Indeed Ed it may wel be the case it does nothing right now but who knows really, I think its the best its looked right now even though apperence does sometimes lie!
Also whilst off topic, the next phase of the MJO will probably come through just for the peak of the season.

Derek, well thats what I thought when I first saw that estimate but now I think probably 1.5 is a better estimate. Still with 2.0 they will probably fly in if it holds like that.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yeah I am seeing the lower level convergence, but no divergence in the upper levels, you do need both.
Yellow is the converg. and blue the diverg. in the image below.
Heck Im seeing just as much convergence in the wave behind 94.

According to this image ( http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dvg.html ), there is actually plenty of upper-level divergence. That being said, I still think the development chances of this system are quite low.

[Thunder44]

I see a more defined LLC near 13N and 51W, moving westward. But the convection is weakening again. I still think is has low chance of development given the marginal enviornment.

[jaxfladude]

Well see y'all in August....July should be dead time from here on out Atlantic-wise once Bertha dies out in the cooler Atlantic Ocean ...

[Blown Away]

[gatorcane]

surface plot as of 20:45:59 UTC showing low moving due west but not dissipating.