ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[weatherguru18]

Yeah, it's pitiful looking. However, don't be hoodwinked by this system. If I remember correctly, didn't we have a tropical depression form in 2005, degenerate to become an open wave which continued westward and eventually became Super Hurricane Katrina? Maybe I have the wrong year and storm down, but things like that have been known to happen. I'll have to double check if that's the correct scenerio.

[Blown Away]

Not trying to start a riot, but if there is a LLC it's going to be between the two areas of convection.

[weatherguru18]

Any one remember what happend with TD #10 in 2005? Yes I know different time of year and everything but the point remains the same! Every one had giving up on poor little TD 10 most even stopped watching it. Then it started interacting with another area and helped to create Hurricane Katrina! Now I am not saying that something like that is going to happen here but just because it doesn't develop before the islands doesn't mean anything at some point down the road something could happen to make it develop!

WOW...that's uncanny! We posted the exact same thing at almost the exact same time!!!!

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Any one remember what happend with TD #10 in 2005? Yes I know different time of year and everything but the point remains the same! Every one had giving up on poor little TD 10 most even stopped watching it. Then it started interacting with another area and helped to create Hurricane Katrina! Now I am not saying that something like that is going to happen here but just because it doesn't develop before the islands doesn't mean anything at some point down the road something could happen to make it develop!

WOW...that's uncanny! We posted the exact same thing at almost the exact same time!!!!

lol yeah I was just thinking the same thing as I read what you had typed!

[Derek Ortt]

Td 10 kept its circulation throughout. it just ahd trouble with upper level shear

This one never had a closed LLC and the broad low is now a weak trough

[wzrgirl1]

wow great minds think alike....that's weird

[skysummit]

Speaking of recon. Wouldn't they have had to move their plane today in order to reach 94L? I wonder if they did....

Looks like they might be on their way right now...

[Category 5]

The circulation has elongated and is dissipating. It's opening up into a tropical wave, and the wave is moving into increasing low-level shear in the Caribbean by Thursday. It's shot at development has passed. I can't hold him back any more...

We still have Bastardi's prediction for a Northeast Gulf development to keep us posting. And Bertha isn't done yet.

Yep, we can track one and dream about the other.

[KWT]

Exactly this and Td10 are obviously totally different beasts, this system is heading into shear and then theres a nice lump of Mexico that it will run into and unless it does something either now or maybe a short window in the W.Caribbean but apart from that I don't think anything will happen now with 94L.

[dizzyfish]

Speaking of recon. Wouldn't they have had to move their plane today in order to reach 94L? I wonder if they did....

Looks like they might be on their way right now...

hmmmm

If they cancel recon for tomorrow do you think they may hang out wherever they are going for a couple of days? "Just in case". (Thinking of the wave behind 94L)

[gatorcane]

It doesn't surprise if they were on their way. I see 94L is continuing to gradually organize today...considering the relatively high likelyhood of it becoming a depression and its proximity to the islands it makes sense.

Best 94L has looked in 24 hours:

[weatherguru18]

Exactly this and Td10 are obviously totally different beasts, this system is heading into shear and then theres a nice lump of Mexico that it will run into and unless it does something either now or maybe a short window in the W.Caribbean but apart from that I don't think anything will happen now with 94L.

Hey, don't steal our thunder! We're trying to contribute here.

[Squarethecircle]

I guess it's time to say goodbye!

[weatherguru18]

I guess it's time to say goodbye!

As I stated earlier, it ain't over until the lady in the pant suits says it is!

Crap, time for class. Like the other guy, I hate summer school. Cya!

[KWT]

Problem is gatorcane this time round the LLC looks like its either open or very close indeed and so even though now we have the convection the actual system probably isn't any closer to being a TD then it was yesterday IMO. we will have to see if any circulation strengthens under that deeper convection further to the west.

[gatorcane]

IT looks like 94L has slowed down some in the past hour or so based on visible sat loop analysis.

Slowing down will allow it to organize further before hitting the more hostile ULL conditions to the west.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[HurricaneHunter914]

94L better become a TD, or that's 62 pgs gone down the drain.

[HURAKAN]

94L better become a TD, or that's 62 pgs gone down the drain.

It just shows that because it's soft and fluffy to the touch and white doesn't mean you're in heaven. 62 pages on an invest just shows that cyclogenesis is not an easy process!!

[KWT]

Well yep then again there was an invest last year that got upto 100 pages which must have felt like an even bigger kickin the teeth.

Gatorcane, yep agreed its slowed but it doesn't really seem any closer to being a TD IMO, the circulation is evident now and there is convection present in the grand scheme of things it still doesn't look greatly organised even if it looks better thanks to more convection though even that doesn't look all that deep really looking at IR.

[HURAKAN]