ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[wxman57]

The circulation has elongated and is dissipating. It's opening up into a tropical wave, and the wave is moving into increasing low-level shear in the Caribbean by Thursday. It's shot at development has passed. I can't hold him back any more...

[srainhoutx]

I wondered how long you would hold out wxman57.

[Gustywind]

000
FZNT02 KNHC 151542
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC TUE JUL 15 2008

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

ATLANTIC BETWEEN 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA
AND GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 1200 UTC TUE JUL 15.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC WED JUL 16.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 1200 UTC THU JUL 17.

.WARNINGS.
.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.
.ATLC TROPICAL WAVE S OF 17N ALONG 48W WITH ASSOCIATED 1012 MB
LOW NEAR 13N48W MOVING W 15 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 52W S OF 17N WITH
ASSOCIATED 1010 MB LOW...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
13N52W. .48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 57W S OF 18N WITH
ASSOCIATED 1010 MB LOW...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR
14N57W.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The circulation has elongated and is dissipating. It's opening up into a tropical wave, and the wave is moving into increasing low-level shear in the Caribbean by Thursday. It's shot at development has passed. I can't hold him back any more...

We still have Bastardi's prediction for a Northeast Gulf development to keep us posting. And Bertha isn't done yet.

[mattpetre]

Looks to me that the wave in the E. Caribbean is breaking up some of the hostile conditions there currently. I'm not so sure I'd write this one off for the long term just yet.

[KWT]

Yeah this one looks finished now to be honest, doubt we will get recon now either...ah well its only July!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Actually, after staring intently at this lovingly crafted satellite loop, I'd say it is oozing blood for all orifi, has a weak and thready pulse, clammy skin, shallow respiration, and a fever of 102.4ºF, but it hasn't quite opened to a wave yet.


It probably dies, but it isn't actually dead yet.

[Wx_Warrior]

Eduardo...He's saying this item is dead...not the season!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Eduardo...He's saying this item is dead...not the season!

And I say 94L isn't quite dead yet, maybe it is pining for the fjords.

[KWT]

The only way this can survive IMO is to develop a new circulation further west near the deeper convection, if the low opens up totally then that may not be a totally bad thing if it can reform a center.

[Decomdoug]

Time to stick a fork in it. Its basicly done. Very little MLC and some convection, just the opposite of this time yesterday.

[PTrackerLA]

I'm doubting development as well but the circulation looks to be improving in the last few frames. Anyone agree? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[Decomdoug]

IMHO the area behind 94L could be the next area of interest.

[wxman57]

I'm doubting development as well but the circulation looks to be improving in the last few frames. Anyone agree? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I think it appears that way because the convection is diminishing and we can see the remnant low-level swirl better.

[KWT]

Well I think it still needs to be watched just in case it decides to do anything, I personally think nothing will happen but even if it does nothing for a long time we need to watch it if it can get in the western Caribbean it could have a 1-2 day shot at doing something again if its not sheared to hell?

[HURAKAN]

FLIGHT SCHEDULE

Code: Select all

plane mission id start end remarks
AFxxx 01AAA 16 JUL 1545Z 16 JUL 2200Z invest 94L
AFxxx 02AAA 17 JUL 0400Z 17 JUL 1200Z invest 94L


I don't think the RECON plane(s) will fly to 94L but just in case HenKL has everything ready for Google Earth.

[vbhoutex]

I agree with WXMAN57, but I don't see how this will survive the shear in the Central Caribbean if it makes it that far. But I must add my favorite trite saying here "NEVER SAY NEVER".

[KWT]

To be honest unless the circulation and convection finally come into some sort of agreement in the next 12hrs I can see recon cancelling the flight because there just isn't much point. Still we will see I suppose.

[dizzyfish]

Speaking of recon. Wouldn't they have had to move their plane today in order to reach 94L? I wonder if they did....

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Any one remember what happend with TD #10 in 2005? Yes I know different time of year and everything but the point remains the same! Every one had giving up on poor little TD 10 most even stopped watching it. Then it started interacting with another area and helped to create Hurricane Katrina! Now I am not saying that something like that is going to happen here but just because it doesn't develop before the islands doesn't mean anything at some point down the road something could happen to make it develop!