ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Thunder44]

The LLC has weakened and become elongated, since yesterday. The new convection is due to the upper-level convergence, being cause by the increasing amount of shear and dry air it getting into as it moves further west. There is still not enough inflow getting into the system, for any low-level convergence. I think the probablity for development is low.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dvg.html

[Squarethecircle]

If the convection holds, the storm could continue to improve and might form, however, as the NHC says, the window of opportunity is only so long, and it will be much, much shorter if the convection dies off again. I will not make any predictions on the storm's outcome.

[Sanibel]

This looks like a system that will crash and dissipate on the islands ahead.

[gatorcane]

The system has a nice southern inflow band now feeding into it. That is a sign to me that it is on the verge of getting its act together...

I truly think 94L is more organized than at first glance. I would not be fooled by its apparent lack of organization that we have seen over the past 12 hours.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[Gustywind]

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, there are two areas of showers and thunderstorms to monitor. One is located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. There is a definite circulation with this system and more thunderstorms are developing with this system. There is still a chance this could develop into a tropical depression in the next day or two. Behind this system (about 700 miles to the east-southeast) is another tropical wave that has quite a bit of thunderstorm activity that will also be monitored for any further development.

[Gustywind]

Mark Avery, and M. Ressler, Lead Meteorologists, The Weather Channel
11:00 a.m. ET 7/15/2008

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

As noted earlier,NHC is still interested in this system,first by tasking a plane for tommorow afternoon and now the graphic of danger zones.

[Gustywind]

The system has a nice southern inflow band now feeding into it. That is a sign to me that it is on the verge of getting its act together...

I truly think 94L is more organized than at first glance.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Agree too Gatorcane, and that's why i'm a little suspicious about the outcome of this system, still alive and getting very slightly organized hours after hours, but for sure for us in the East carib we should not let our guard down...

[NDG]

It is has a SW inflow, even if it might be elongated, is far from being back to an open wave any time soon, so it still has to be monitored.
zoomed in loop

[gatorcane]

It is has a SW inflow, even if it might be elongated, is far from being back to an open wave any time soon, so it still has to be monitored.
[url]http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/1kmsrvis_loop.asp?storm_identifier=AL942008&starting_image=2008AL94_1KMSRVIS_200807130845.GIF
[/url]

about the inflow that is what I said above

Good call by the way. 94L is not even close to being dead yet.

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 151526
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1126 AM AST TUE JUL 15 2008


A STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 46 WEST THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND...BRINGING INCREASING SEAS...STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

[Thunder44]

It needs more inflow, from the north, to create good convergence. If it doesn't get that, the LLC can't tighten up.

[Gustywind]

It is has a SW inflow, even if it might be elongated, is far from being back to an open wave any time soon, so it still has to be monitored.
[url]http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/1kmsrvis_loop.asp?storm_identifier=AL942008&starting_image=2008AL94_1KMSRVIS_200807130845.GIF
[/url]

about the inflow that is what I said above

Good call by the way. 94L is not even close to being dead yet.

Absolutely Gatorcane things can always turn quickly than predicted it's a reason to continue to see how its evolves near the 50W...

[NDG]

By the way is moving now it might passing through the Islands as soon Friday, not the weekend.

[boca]

I looked at the visible loop and couldn't see the spin I saw last night, also because it racing west its not getting its act together.Their is good SW inflow which was pointed out.

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
11am more convection is occuring!

[gatorcane]

I looked at the visible loop and couldn't see the spin I saw last night, also because it racing west its not getting its act together.

Boca its definitely there but harder to see because some deep convection has developed over it. I estimate it is at 50N 12W moving due west.

[Thunder44]

By the way is moving now it might passing through the Islands as soon Friday, not the weekend.

It's current speed is also working against it now. It's moving into more hostile conditions faster.

[HURAKAN]

This loop is better:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-ir2.html