ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[GeneratorPower]

It's a category 3 blob. Seriously though I think that is a feeder band in early stages. Convection is making a comeback for now. I may stay up for a few more frames.

[Thunder44]

From looking at the water vapor loop, there is still alot of dry air to the west, which may be why it's struggling to develop and sustain convection. Also there appears to be a trough dropping down from the north that may be causing more shear over it soon:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

[mattpetre]

Trough probably won't cut into it and cause shear and from the looks of that the dry air is eroding. Just a very unprofessional opinion here though. Why am I still up at this late hour!

[Stratosphere747]

[Sanibel]

Think maybe we got our nocturnal flaring. Could be a band forming burst. The convection is west of the center:

[Brent]

2am TWO:

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF WEAK AND DISORGANIZED
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

[MWatkins]

Looks like we may have some vertical stacking issues based on the deeper convection relative to the banding features we saw earlier.

The BAM guidance has been significantly spread out...and whatever low center is trying to form is probably way out ahead of just about everything else. Look at the 120 hour projections:

BAMS 21.2N 85.8W
BAMD 15.0N 69.7W
BAMM 16.5N 77.7W

The the shallow layer is 500 nautical miles away from the medium layer projection, and the deep layer projection lags both by another 500 NM.

Time will tell if a center develops or consolidates...but right now it looks like this system is struggling to stay together.

MW

[HurricaneHunter914]

"Weak and disorganized". They still have it at 50+% of developement though. Should be brought down to 20%-50%.

[Chacor]

The percentages are for the time period of up to 48 hours after the TWO. Also, the percentages/graphical TWO is based on the wording of the TWO; since the TWO says "STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO" it's still listed as red. If it said "could still become a depression in the next few days" it might get lowered to orange.

[wzrgirl1]

I am tired of blob watching....hoping it will do something while I am sleeping. Nite all!!

[cheezyWXguy]

94L continues to pop new convection, especially over the western semicircle which has now become very deep. It looks to be moving into an area of more favorable LL convergence and deep convection should be bursting over the center in a matter of hours if this continues. However 94 surprised me this morning, so im not as sure about this as i could be. I still think it has a very good chance at td soon.

[wzrgirl1]

hmmm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[HurricaneHunter914]

Convection may be popping, but it's still not enough for an upgrade. Well, we still has 2+ hrs till the first visible comes up, I can wait. Good nite all.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I don't expect a upgrade today unless things change big time.

[Innotech]

this storm isnt close to dead yet. Dont disregard its potential by any means. Ive seen storms survive much worse conditions.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The environment for 94L is pretty favorable wind shear and SAL wise. I mean very favorable for this time of the year, with wind shear around 5-8 knots at the upper levels and 5 knots at the midlevels. All I can tell is that there might be some eastly shear that is being missed; that is perfectly normal for the Eastern Atlantic. Upper level divergence is ok at 5+ over the system, which is still not super good, but ok. The Convergence is not good and which is the problem with this system. That problem is it is not able to form convection because of no or little coming together and rising air=convergence. With that this system can not strengthen at all, but on the latest cimss it is now out of the "negative" area that it was in, so pretty much it is slowly becoming slightly more favorable for thunderstorm(convection) development. When you have a LLC you normally need that to develop, so this has some. The last few frames show a pretty developed LLC trying to develop convection over it.

So I expect some slow development out of this system over the next 24-36 hours. I would give this 50/50% chance of becoming a cyclone. The SAL and shear is weak, but shear levels could become a little less favorable once past 50 west. So we will have to watch and see.

[Thunder44]

Looking at IR-2 loop, it looks like the the center may have reformed or jumped further east.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

[tropicsPR]

Strong burst of convection to the west of the center of circulation. I think this Invest is very alive...

[Derek Ortt]

its now getting sheared thanks to an uper trough dropping right on top of the system

[KWT]

Yeah it does look like Derek, that was always the risk with that upper troughto the noryh of the system. Thereis convection developing still but its still way west of the center, its no closer to getting to a depression then it was yesterday.