Where is Claudette heading?

[GalvestonDuck]

IMO - if she just brushes across the coast of the YP or simply doesn't touch it at all, the models will change drastically than if she goes overland completely.

Guess that makes sense to you guys, but it's cool to express it and know that I understand it also, on account of things you all have taught me here.

So...is that right?

And, do you think she'd move more NNW or NW if she does not hit the YP? (And, no, I am not -removed-...I'm preparing. Besides, you can't call it -removed- if models have it headed in your direction anyway.)

~Duck

[southerngale]

Yeah, sadly GD, it's sometimes hard to show concern on message boards because you're accused of -removed-.

Don't worry about it though...we should be concerned and prepare and we shouldn't have to be hesitant in expressing our concerns either.

Nobody knows where she's going and everyone along the Gulf Coast should pay close attention....tropical systems can be very unpredictable!

[Rainband]

Well said KELLY!!

[mf_dolphin]

I think the biggest impact if Claudette misses the Yucatan will be in potential intensity. Without the landmass to take her down a notch or too she can just keep building. SG, no problem with asking questions or expressing concern here! That's how we all learn!

[wx247]

Yeah... I expressed earlier today my concerns that the models might be overestimating the diminishing of Claudette if it only were to brush the Yucatan.

You can bet that the tracks will probably change. I am still feeling that Louisiana may get this one as well. I hope I am wrong.

[GulfBreezer]

TX/LA is my hot spot now........I posted yesterday that there was still a possibilty that she only skirts the yucatan and that would change the whole ballgame. Folks, we could be watching a very major storm!

[Steve]

>>Yeah, sadly GD, it's sometimes hard to show concern on message boards because you're accused of -removed-.

I think you have to take that into context of the poster. A lot of times internet savvy posters who are new to coastal areas can get nervous at any jog they see or perceive and just want to know if they might be affected. In most of those cases, you can tell that someone is just concerned or nervous. And that goes for plenty of us who have been near the coast our whole lives too. Sometimes we get nervous about a particular system.

But sometimes you'll see a poster in Miami who is making a case for a storm past 90W to loop back around and head ESE and hit them; or you'll see someone in New Orleans under a huge blocking high trying to bring something up to 30N; or you'll see a storm heading for Galveston Bay and someone from Tampa latches onto an outlier model as backup. And the pattern repeats itself with most of those posters (who are pretty few and far between btw) so you eventually can see who they are.

At CFHC, there is a poster (Rick in Mobile) who turns every wave or perceived threat into a future Category 5 heading for Mobile. He's hillarious. But whenever there is a real threat, you can his tune change. I haven't seen him yet in 2003, but he'll be around before long.

I suggest people not worry about what some people say about them. Me? If I want to know if someone is -removed-, I'll simply ask them.

Steve

[ColdFront77]

A tropical cyclone must have moved from the western Gulf of Mexico into the eastern Gulf of Mexico after all these years.

[Steve]

Many times, but sometimes you just know.

Steve

[JetMaxx]

I told TimnMS via email two nights ago my belief was that Claudette would cross the NE Yucatan (or possibly the Yucatan Channel) into the GOM and eventually strike either NE Mexico or southern Texas (between Tampico and Port O'Conner) as a cat 1 or 2 hurricane.....and I'm sticking with that prediction. I based it on model forecast data, climatology, and instincts.

We'll see

PW

[ColdFront77]

Figured they have. I have checked out past storm tracks, but always looking at a variety of different issues not specificaly west to eastward moving tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico.