ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[PTrackerLA]

By the way I may be completely forgetting the past few years but this is the first time I can remember that I've seen these convergence/divergence maps and terminology thrown around so much for a system. I understand what it means and why it's significant but geez! Also the post counting seems to be a new obsession this year as well, or maybe I'm just old-school. All this is enough to make me need a drink, or maybe it's because this is Monday .

[txwatcher91]

Latest IR shows the small storm over the center is now orange instead of yellow and increasing in size, this could be the spark...

[HURAKAN]

94L is interesting in the fact that most disturbances first develop an area of convection and give a hard time to the NHC by trying to identify the LLC. 94L first has developed a strong and well-developed LLC (maybe a little broad) and needs convection. We have to wait. I have learned a lot from systems like Humberto aka 90L.

Note: I'm not comparing 90L (Humberto) to 94L, just that in this business you can expect the unexpected.

Side note: 43 pages and no depression yet!!

[Vortex]

Ain't been pretty today if your looking for an upgrade BUT it's slowly getting there..Deep convection tonight and we'll be in business. If not than latest trends by some of the globals will have to be given much more weight..

[Nimbus]

My estimate of the LLC speed over 5 hours is about 21 MPH which is too fast for rapid intensification. Should slow down as it spins up.

[KWT]

Problem is whilst those tiny cells may be developing a ltitle on a broader scale the convection as a whole is weakening, the deepest convection is now way off to the west of the center between 45-46W which is not a great thing for this system really.

Hurakan, an invest last year got 107 pages!

[mutley]

It's interesting that so many members are ready to call 94L all but over. The models say similar, I suppose, but my eyes tell me there's still a lot to work with over the next 24 hours. Put me in the "not over yet" camp.

[txwatcher91]

Problem is whilst those tiny cells may be developing a ltitle on a broader scale the convection as a whole is weakening, the deepest convection is now way off to the west of the center between 45-46W which is not a great thing for this system really.

Hurakan, an invest last year got 107 pages!

It doesn't matter too much what the other convection does if it bursts over the center this will likely be a depression. All we need is a nice "ball" of convection to form over it and we will be set.

[wxman57]

My estimate of the LLC speed over 5 hours is about 21 MPH which is too fast for rapid intensification. Should slow down as it spins up.

I measured a 6-hr movement using GARP of about 280 deg. at 11.7 kts (13 mph) from 8am to 2pm CDT today.

[Brent]

What burst?

LOL, exactly. I'm giving this storm til tomorrow morning to do something. I'm not impressed.

[HURAKAN]

wxman57, what do you think about 94L?

[KWT]

Problem is tht convection is what I call popcorn convection, its hardly a burst. As I've said a few times I don't doubt that if it does get a ball then its a TD, I totally agree, my point is I don't think that ball will ever develop before any ciruclation opens totally up again.

[Anthonyl]

Earlier there was mention of lack of convergence, however 94L seems to be making an agressive comeback.

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurric ... n=atlantic

The end of the loop suggest an increase in precip with a more westerly motion.

[srainhoutx]

My estimate of the LLC speed over 5 hours is about 21 MPH which is too fast for rapid intensification. Should slow down as it spins up.

I measured a 6-hr movement using GARP of about 280 deg. at 11.7 kts (13 mph) from 8am to 2pm CDT today.

Thanks wxman57.

[canegrl04]

I will predict a TD forms by midnight

[KWT]

wxman57 just out of curiousity where about would you place the center right now?

[HURAKAN]

Maybe "agressive" is not the best word to describe the comeback!! But it may be trying to pop up.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

First post of this new season..... I sure as he!! see no burst. More intellectual posts to come.

[Ivanhater]

Well now that it is taking so long to develop..I doubt recurvature away from the CONUS is going to happen..if it develops at all..but once again GFS is not impressed...

[mutley]

I will predict a TD forms by midnight

Neck is stuck out over the chopping block. Time will tell if the axe falls cleanly and accurately.