ATL: Dolly Model Runs

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL dissipates 94L in 6 hours:

CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 12Z JUL 14

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.1 42.0 300./14.0
6 11.4 42.7 291./ 6.8

STORM DISSIPATED AT 6 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[brunota2003]

Well now, if that isnt the most interesting run you've ever seen.

[wzrgirl1]

with not much lower level convergence, it does not surprise me one bit

[ronjon]

12Z CMC takes a tropical cyclone to just west of the Cayman Islands in 144 hrs.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2008071412&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Derek Ortt]

and only the Canadian has this doing anything!

[Brent]

Live by the models, die by the models.

[Derek Ortt]

Live by the models, die by the models.

when the human brain is able to solve a system of hundreds of partial differential equations using finite differences, elements, or spectral methods, and do so immediately and integrate forward in time... I will stop using the models

[cheezyWXguy]

and only the Canadian has this doing anything!

Well, the GFS isnt initializing, therefore the GFDL is off, since the both feed off of the same information, I believe. The nogaps never develops anything...i dont know about the ukmet or the others though. I dont think the cmc is that far off.

[Brent]

Live by the models, die by the models.

when the human brain is able to solve a system of hundreds of partial differential equations using finite differences, elements, or spectral methods, and do so immediately and integrate forward in time... I will stop using the models

So true, we're all stuck.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Live by the models, die by the models.

when the human brain is able to solve a system of hundreds of partial differential equations using finite differences, elements, or spectral methods, and do so immediately and integrate forward in time... I will stop using the models

So true, we're all stuck.

The 12Z GFDL doesn't develop a system either.

Interesting test. My eyes, aka satellite loop, tells me it is close to being a TD, but the more reliable models suggest it isn't and won't be.

I don't know which is right.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The coarser outer grid of the 12Z GFDL does see a healthy wave near Jamaica in 5 days.

[Derek Ortt]

and only the Canadian has this doing anything!

Well, the GFS isnt initializing, therefore the GFDL is off, since the both feed off of the same information, I believe. The nogaps never develops anything...i dont know about the ukmet or the others though. I dont think the cmc is that far off.

THE GFS IS INITIALIZING PROPERLY!

It's not initializing how you want it to initialize, but it is initializing it as a broad area of surface vorticity. That is also what the QUIKSCAT showed

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 12Z GFDL doesn't develop a system either.

Interesting test. My eyes, aka satellite loop, tells me it is close to being a TD, but the more reliable models suggest it isn't and won't be.

I don't know which is right.

The NHC also thinks this is close to becoming a depression. I think they are probably the most reliable source...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT
1200 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS INCREASED A LITTLE SINCE
THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT
ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 MPH.

[Ed Mahmoud]

and only the Canadian has this doing anything!

Well, the GFS isnt initializing, therefore the GFDL is off, since the both feed off of the same information, I believe. The nogaps never develops anything...i dont know about the ukmet or the others though. I dont think the cmc is that far off.

THE GFS IS INITIALIZING PROPERLY!

It's not initializing how you want it to initialize, but it is initializing it as a broad area of surface vorticity. That is also what the QUIKSCAT showed

The 12Z GFS does show an impressive 850 mb vort max with 94L...

[MWatkins]

It's important to remember that the models aren't perfect. Sometimes, they score big like they did with Bertha, but in general cyclogensis is one of the hardest things to predict. So if the globals don't spin up a system they can't track it through the forecast period.

Also...there are plenty of recent examples (see Felix last year) when the models simply couldn't figure it out. It happens...

We won't know if the models are right or wrong until they have time to verify. We will find out...

I think people get so caught up in the process and get so personally invested in the outcome that the model bashing (or praising) occurs right after a model run finishes...rather than actually giving it time to see if it verifies! I wasn't around last week but I bet there were a lot of people praising the UKMET and bashing HWRF on Bertha.

Patience...

MW

[Thunder44]

It looks like to me, that the GFS and GFDL, don't develop 94L, perhaps because they are trying to form something else in the Carribean.

[cycloneye]

The 18:00 UTC BAMS have it moving at 295 degrees at 14kts and pressure of 1007 mbs.

WHXX01 KWBC 141808
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1808 UTC MON JUL 14 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080714 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080714 1800 080715 0600 080715 1800 080716 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.8N 43.3W 12.6N 46.5W 13.4N 50.1W 13.8N 54.3W
BAMD 11.8N 43.3W 12.5N 45.6W 13.2N 47.9W 13.6N 50.1W
BAMM 11.8N 43.3W 12.5N 45.9W 13.3N 48.9W 13.8N 51.9W
LBAR 11.8N 43.3W 12.4N 45.6W 13.1N 48.2W 13.6N 50.9W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080716 1800 080717 1800 080718 1800 080719 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.8N 58.9W 17.3N 67.6W 19.1N 76.5W 21.4N 85.0W
BAMD 14.0N 52.4W 14.4N 57.4W 15.0N 63.1W 15.6N 68.7W
BAMM 14.2N 55.2W 15.1N 62.0W 16.2N 69.0W 17.6N 76.1W
LBAR 14.2N 54.0W 15.5N 60.6W 16.8N 67.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 44KTS 53KTS 60KTS 65KTS
DSHP 44KTS 53KTS 60KTS 65KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.8N LONCUR = 43.3W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 10.8N LONM12 = 40.6W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 9.5N LONM24 = 38.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

18:00 UTC SHIP forecast: Shear looks to not be a big problem,warmer ssts ahead,22% of RI.

Code: Select all

        *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *      INVEST  AL942008  07/14/08  18 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    27    29    32    34    40    44    48    53    57    60    64    65
V (KT) LAND       25    27    29    32    34    40    44    48    53    57    60    64    65
V (KT) LGE mod    25    26    27    28    30    33    37    40    43    46    51    57    62

SHEAR (KTS)        8     6    10     6     7    14    18    19    12     8    16    14    17
SHEAR DIR        126   158   228   264   280   266   278   295   325   349   355   349   332
SST (C)         26.9  26.9  26.9  26.8  26.9  27.4  28.0  28.1  28.1  28.2  28.1  28.4  28.7
POT. INT. (KT)   124   124   125   124   125   131   139   140   141   142   141   145   150
ADJ. POT. INT.   124   124   124   124   125   132   141   143   142   144   142   146   150
200 MB T (C)   -54.2 -54.5 -54.8 -54.8 -54.4 -55.0 -54.9 -54.9 -54.8 -54.8 -54.8 -54.6 -54.4
TH_E DEV (C)       7     8     9     9     9     9     9     9    10    10    10    10    11
700-500 MB RH     64    63    61    61    58    63    55    59    54    51    49    48    47
GFS VTEX (KT)      7     7     5     5     4  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    27    27    34    39    35    41    13    36    21    10     8    10     5
200 MB DIV        35    26    11     8    -2    -2    -2    -8    15    16     3    -5    20
LAND (KM)       1228  1164  1108  1043  1001   928   733   486   488   271   213   137    24
LAT (DEG N)     11.8  12.2  12.5  12.9  13.3  13.8  14.2  14.5  15.1  15.6  16.2  16.9  17.6
LONG(DEG W)     43.3  44.6  45.9  47.4  48.9  51.9  55.2  58.6  62.0  65.4  69.0  72.5  76.1
STM SPEED (KT)    13    13    14    15    15    16    16    17    17    17    18    17    17
HEAT CONTENT      16    18    18    20    22    43    58    61    59    67    58    81    18

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14      CX,CY: -12/  6
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  508  (MEAN=625)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  19.5 (MEAN=20.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  48.0 (MEAN=68.6)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  12.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.   1.   4.   9.  16.  21.  26.  29.  33.  35.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         1.   2.   4.   5.   6.   5.   2.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   4.   5.   6.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -4.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.   4.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   2.   2.   2.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       2.   3.   6.   8.  14.  19.  23.  28.  34.  37.  41.  43.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  GOES IR STD DEV        1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   2.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT    0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      2.   4.   7.   9.  15.  19.  23.  28.  32.  35.  39.  40.

   ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008     INVEST 07/14/08  18 UTC **
           ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.1
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   7.2 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.4
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  15.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.3
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  99.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.8
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  69.4 Range: 56.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  36.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  15.7 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.8
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  18.8 Range:  0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    22% is   1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    15% is   1.9 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008     INVEST 07/14/08  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY       

[Extremeweatherguy]

[Derek Ortt]

however, the shear is not exactly favorable after 48 hours. It is marginal