ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 141759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE....





STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A
1008 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 12N. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE WELL DEFINED ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC
TURNING...FOCUSED NEAR THE LOW CENTER. CONVECTION HAS DECREASED
SLIGHTLY WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIMITED TO 90
NM N AND 150 NM S OF THE CENTER. A LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION IS
FARTHER S EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW.

[ronjon]

94L has a vigorous low level circulation and heavy thunderstorms on its north and south sides. To me, it only needs convection to fire near the center (12N-43W) for classification as a TD.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-vis.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

Still no luck with convergence for 94L.

This image is from 15 UTC. That means it is about three and a half hours old.

[gatorcane]

it's looking increasingly better this afternoon. YOu can see the convection north of the LLC beginning to try and wrap. I say depression by 11pm EST tonight at the latest:

[cycloneye]

ATCF Best track latest update,Pressure down 1 mb,1007 at 11.8n-43.3w.

AL, 94, 2008071418, , BEST, 0, 118N, 433W, 25, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 100, 45, 0, 0,

[gatorcane]

Thanks cycloneye, I am anticipating high activity on this board over the next 10 days with this invest as it continues to organize and move WNW.

Is it mid July or mid September by the way?

[Gustywind]

000
AGXX40 KNHC 141721
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2008

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

A TROPICAL WAVE S OF 17N ALONG 42W AND AN ASSOCIATED 1008 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N IS MOVING W AT 10 TO 15
KT. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH THROUGH WED. BY THU...EXPECT A WEAK
UPPER LOW TO PINCH OFF FROM THIS TROUGH AND CONTINUE TO TRACK
WITH THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE ISLANDS FRI AND SAT. THE UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER TROUGHING/LOW SHOULD HELP
SUPPORT CONVECTION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE THROUGH WED. PLEASE
SEE THE TWOAT FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I agree gatorcane. 94L definitely looks the best it has all day. Good outflow is present and a decent band of convection seems to be wrapping around the NW side. I don't know if the NHC will pull the trigger and call it a TD tonight, but if organization continues, then it definitely seems possible that they will do so tomorrow.

[gatorcane]

I agree gatorcane. 94L definitely looks the best it has all day. Good outflow is present and a decent band of convection seems to be wrapping around the NW side. I don't know if the NHC will pull the trigger and call it a TD tonight, but if organization continues, then it definitely seems possible that they will do so tomorrow.

I anticipate the convection will continue to try and wrap and sometime later today and into tonight, I expect a considerable burge of deep convection near the center given the excellent conditions for development currently present where 94L resides.

The diurnal minimum is occurring over the next few hours so I would think this deep burst will happen later this evening once it darkens over that part of the Atlantic.

[fci]

Why is there this preoccupation with size of thread?
Calling it out all the time just prompts people to build up page count.
Similar to post count and the storm levels you attain.

[orion]

Question about the convergence/divergence: It would definitely help convection if the low level convergence were there. In the latest images, it even looks like the upper level divergence isn't what it was earlier. Can the low level convergence to the south of the system actually hurt it as far as development is concerned? Seems like with the air coming together in that region, it would make it much harder to converge at the system. Or is it far enough away not to make a difference?

[gatorcane]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I give 94L an 80% chance of development into a depression at this time after carefully reviewing the synoptics and satellite presentations and trends from today.

[Gustywind]

it's looking increasingly better this afternoon. YOu can see the convection north of the LLC beginning to try and wrap. I say depression by 11pm EST tonight at the latest:

Looks like José in October 1999, same appearence in its early stages looks like a crab

[Ed Mahmoud]

As noted on the model thread, most of the reliable models weren't too impressed on the 12Z runs. And the 12Z GFS did initialize a pretty decent 850 mb vort max with 94L. It looks pretty good, but is lacking storms near the center. There is probably something missing with this that keeps the models from jumping.


I will say, GFDL loses 94L immediately, but coarse resolution outer grid has sharp tropical wave near Jamaica in 5 days.

[Gustywind]

Thanks cycloneye, I am anticipating high activity on this board over the next 10 days with this invest as it continues to organize and move WNW.

Is it mid July or mid September by the way?

July 14th Gatorcane with September activity

[Derek Ortt]

SSD is at 2.0/2.0

[Brent]

I agree gatorcane. 94L definitely looks the best it has all day. Good outflow is present and a decent band of convection seems to be wrapping around the NW side. I don't know if the NHC will pull the trigger and call it a TD tonight, but if organization continues, then it definitely seems possible that they will do so tomorrow.

I agree, especially if it does what it did last night as far as a huge blowup of convection.

ETA: Thanks Derek for the update.

[Gustywind]

18 GMT 07/14/08 11.8N 43.3W 1007 hpa Invest
Winds 30 mph Moving west 16 mph
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... ml#a_topad
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Don't expect a upgrade. I've seen systems get a 3.0t in not be upgraded before, this system is very unstable and has not been able to keep its convection. The nhc will went to see convection remain over the LLC for 12+ hours before they upgrade. Also they will went to see low level convergence developing to make sure that they are not wasting their time. I think it will be 11am tomarrow.

[Gustywind]

SSD is at 2.0/2.0

Absolutely Derek 14/1745 UTC 12.1N 43.1W T2.0/2.0 94L -- Atlantic Ocean