ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[wzrgirl1]

nice band trying to wrap around the north side....we shall see

[Chacor]

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND TROPICAL NORTH
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN SEA
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2008

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND ALONG 42W.
THE WAVE/LOW COMPLEX SHOULD REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC WATERS
THU AFTERNOON AND THE LESSER ANTILLES FRI MORNING PRODUCING AN
INCREASE IN WINDS...SEAS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

[KWT]

A little bit wzrgirl1 but I'd rather see a decent convective burst right over the center, doesn't have to be intense just over the center rather then to the north and to the south, if it can do that then IMO we will see an upgrade but until then there is no point in upgrading it IMO.

[PTrackerLA]

Nice circulation evident on visible. Look for an increase in convection later today. It seems that most thought this would be a Tropical storm by now given the slower pace of this thread!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

[Sanibel]

Yesterday the ITCZ was flaring south of 94L and jumped up into it. Today the ITCZ is deeply flaring to the south of 94L. We can only watch to see if it does it again.

[KWT]

Well the thing is Ptracker there isn't enough deep convection over the center to really warrent an upgrade IMO. Some convection is developing to the north of it which will help but its not enough as of yet.

Also talking about the pace of this thread...if this gets to TD status at any point its already number 27 in the biggest Atlantic storm threads on this board!
I think if it does form then odds are very high for a top 10 finish if not top 5.

[Ivanhater]

I will be looking for a lone thunderstorm near the center to start growing throughout the day...

[Brent]

I will be looking for a lone thunderstorm near the center to start growing throughout the day...

Yeah, same here. The structure does look a lot better today.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Nice circulation evident on visible. Look for an increase in convection later today. It seems that most thought this would be a Tropical storm by now given the slower pace of this thread!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

Once this is named a TD and we see the first 5-day cone, I expect this thread to explode once again.

[KWT]

Well the thing is as I said even a weak complex over the center will be a good thing for this system as long it can keep the circulation it presently has.

[Ivanhater]

I will be looking for a lone thunderstorm near the center to start growing throughout the day...

Yeah, same here. The structure does look a lot better today.

Lol Brent, glad I wasnt the only one..but yeah the structure is looking great

[PTrackerLA]

I say TD tomorrow morning, we'll see how that pans out!

[KWT]

It does seem to be slowly on its way to becoming a tropical depression though as I keep saying I would like to see a little more convection near the center, depsite that its probably nearly organised to be a TD in its own right.

[cycloneye]

Bouy 41041

Lets watch this data from the bouy located at 14.6n-46w far from the center but we can see how the winds are blowing as the system moves thru 46w.

[KWT]

Yep though if that northern convection stays where it is cycloneye the bouy may well get some of that convection who knows.

[cycloneye]

[MGC]

Just needs a bit of convection over the center and it should be upgraded.....MGC

[KWT]

As expected cycloneye shows the region our invest is in and shows that development of this region is quite possible. I wonder how this invest will handle Dmin though?

Agreed MGC, its just a matter of when/if that convection decides to pop closer to the center.

[O Town]

[x-y-no]

Yep though if that northern convection stays where it is cycloneye the bouy may well get some of that convection who knows.

I think that's too far north to catch any of the convection, but we may see some indication of the system passing - more northerly component to the wind direction and slight drop in pressure.