ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[KWT]

Maybe Ed we are going to have to wait and see, your last point is my biggest issue with this systems future strength. However either side of the island and its likely going to get stronger. I seem to recall the Nassau Hurricane of 1926 passed just to the east of Hispaniola before really strengthening.

[HURAKAN]

[HurricaneHunter914]

Question. How does low level convergence form over a system?

[Ed Mahmoud]

In my unofficial opinion, based on floater visible loop, this is already a tropical depression, or darned close to it, not super organized, but a closed low, with a narrow band of deeper showers starting to wrap around the Northern side.


I'd guess if that band enhances and gets closer to the center, NHC could pull the trigger this afternoon.

[Gustywind]

12 GMT 07/14/08 11.5N 42.0W 25 1008 Invest
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... ml#a_topad

[KWT]

They may well do how is the Sat.estimates right now by the way, I heard earlier that one agency was upto 1.5?

[Bane]

it definitely has a nice circulation. i'd be shocked if it doesn't develop further.

[senorpepr]

They may well do how is the Sat.estimates right now by the way, I heard earlier that one agency was upto 1.5?

At 12Z, both SAB and TAFB gave 94L a T1.5 estimate. I come up with the same figure.

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 141007
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
607 AM AST MON JUL 14 2008

THE GFS HAS BECOME POSITIVELY SCHIZOPHRENIC FOR OUR AREA LATER
THIS WEEK...AS THE 18Z AND 00Z RUNS COULD HARDLY BE MORE
DIFFERENT. ALTHOUGH BOTH RUNS SCARCELY DIFFERED WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING...THE 18Z RUN DEVELOPED A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE AND PULLED IT DIRECTLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...WHILE
THE LATEST 00Z RUN SHOWED HARDLY ANY CIRCULATION AT ALL IN A
RELATIVELY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE. HOW THIS ACTUALLY TURNS OUT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW WELL CONVECTION NEAR 40 WEST CAN ORGANIZE. AND...ONCE
IT DOES...THE MODEL WILL LIKELY PULL TOGETHER ITS BIFURCATED
FORECAST. THOSE WHO HAVE NOT COMPLETED THEIR EARLY SEASON
HURRICANE PREPARATIONS SHOULD DO SO IMMEDIATELY AS THE SYSTEM IS
ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF CYCLONIC TURNING. AVERAGE WEATHER WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM REGARDLESS
OF ITS STRENGTH.
Leewards from Guadeloupe to Puerto Rico keep watching it...

[KWT]

Hmmm isn't 1.5 high enough then for an upgrade given it clearly has a closed circulation?

Looks like there is enough uncertainty still that anywhere in the Caribbean is going to need to watch this, but will it pull a Charley/Ivan or will it be more like Chris/Ernesto??

['CaneFreak]

Hmmm isn't 1.5 high enough then for an upgrade given it clearly has a closed circulation?

Nope. If I am not sadly mistaken, it needs a 2.0 estimate and a closed low to be called a 30 mph Tropical Depression. I could be wrong, but I think its 2.0.

[Ed Mahmoud]

In my unofficial opinion, based on floater visible loop, this is already a tropical depression, or darned close to it, not super organized, but a closed low, with a narrow band of deeper showers starting to wrap around the Northern side.


I'd guess if that band enhances and gets closer to the center, NHC could pull the trigger this afternoon.

I will say, 0843Z scatterometer suggests this was still tied to the ITCZ, so perhaps visible imagery is folling me a tad. But that is 5 hours old, and it continues to look better.



Edit- add o, lose l, in 'folling'.

[senorpepr]

A T2.0 would be a 30KT tropical depression. T1.5 would be a 25KT tropical depression. They "could" upgrade, but I highly doubt they'd upgrade solely on satellite alone with T1.5. If recon confirmed the circulation, then we'd have a different story.

I don't expect an upgrade until we get into the T2.0 ballpark.

[WmE]

Hmmm isn't 1.5 high enough then for an upgrade given it clearly has a closed circulation?

Nope. If I am not sadly mistaken, it needs a 2.0 estimate and a closed low to be called a 30 mph Tropical Depression. I could be wrong, but I think its 2.0.

Yep if no recon is available, a 2.0 usually warrants an upgrade.

[abajan]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 141007
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
607 AM AST MON JUL 14 2008

THE GFS HAS BECOME POSITIVELY SCHIZOPHRENIC FOR OUR AREA LATER
THIS WEEK...AS THE 18Z AND 00Z RUNS COULD HARDLY BE MORE
DIFFERENT. ALTHOUGH BOTH RUNS SCARCELY DIFFERED WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING...THE 18Z RUN DEVELOPED A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE AND PULLED IT DIRECTLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...WHILE
THE LATEST 00Z RUN SHOWED HARDLY ANY CIRCULATION AT ALL IN A
RELATIVELY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE. HOW THIS ACTUALLY TURNS OUT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW WELL CONVECTION NEAR 40 WEST CAN ORGANIZE. AND...ONCE
IT DOES...THE MODEL WILL LIKELY PULL TOGETHER ITS BIFURCATED
FORECAST. THOSE WHO HAVE NOT COMPLETED THEIR EARLY SEASON
HURRICANE PREPARATIONS SHOULD DO SO IMMEDIATELY AS THE SYSTEM IS
ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF CYCLONIC TURNING. AVERAGE WEATHER WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM REGARDLESS
OF ITS STRENGTH.
Leewards from Guadeloupe to Puerto Rico keep watching it...

Sometime back in the mid to late '80s, a tropical wave passed over Barbados with gusts in excess of 55 mph (well above the tropical storm threshold). So even if 94L remained a wave, it could still pack a punch.

[Gustywind]

Hmmm isn't 1.5 high enough then for an upgrade given it clearly has a closed circulation?

Looks like there is enough uncertainty still that anywhere in the Caribbean is going to need to watch this, but will it pull a Charley/Ivan or will it be more like Chris/Ernesto??

Absolutely KWT all the islands chain could be in troubles, given the latest models runs Martinica Dominica especially Guadeloupe and Antigua seems the more concerned islands but it's fairly suspicious we should pay attention to this system quickly in case of, things can turn quickly in the tropics. The latest San Juan weather forecast: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 607 AM AST MON JUL 14 2008 is ALREADY anticipating that :THOSE WHO HAVE NOT COMPLETED THEIR EARLY SEASON HURRICANE PREPARATIONS SHOULD DO SO IMMEDIATELY AS THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF CYCLONIC TURNING. Pretty confident in their forecasts....but hope this trend will change during the next couple of hours and days, but i'm monitoring this area of concerned carefully...

[MWatkins]

Somethings "seems" a little off with this. The UKMET isn't developing it at all, there is some very dry air to the NW and although the banding is decent, the QSCAT signature isn't very impressive even for a tropical wave.

Perhaps there is something slightly off with the thermodynamic environment that is keeping this from really getting going.

Still waiting for one of those circular convective bubbles to push up near the middle of the broad low. I am sure the NHC is waiting for some deeper thunderstorms to redevelop before even considering an upgrade at this time.

MW

['CaneFreak]

Somethings "seems" a little off with this. The UKMET isn't developing it at all, there is some very dry air to the NW and although the banding is decent, the QSCAT signature isn't very impressive even for a tropical wave.

Perhaps there is something slightly off with the thermodynamic environment that is keeping this from really getting going.

Still waiting for one of those circular convective bubbles to push up near the middle of the broad low. I am sure the NHC is waiting for some deeper thunderstorms to redevelop before even considering an upgrade at this time.

MW

Mike, doesn't it still looked attached to to the ITCZ to you? Look at this. The southern part of the circulation appears to still be stuck in my unofficial opinion.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... wind_barbs

[senorpepr]

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Tropical Storm Dolly (04L)

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Sea Surface Temperatures


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Bay of Campeche Surface Pressure, Streamlines, Plots, and Base Reflectivity (0.5°)



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Tamaulipas and South Texas Surface Pressure, Streamlines, Plots, and Base Reflectivity (0.5°)

[Sanibel]

Right now it looks like another Chris. Strong initial form and development followed by a poof. It needs to reconvect or we'll lose it (I don't want to be smashed by a storm, just saying what this needs to develop). This looks like a case of horizontal shear or subsidence where the convection is dried out. It could be that it's still too early in July for this area.