TC Bertha

[Chacor]

Looking better.

[KWT]

Still doesn't look amazing but at least now its starting to move away from the upwelled waters it may get some its convection back again.

[Chacor]

Very interesting S-shaped track.

[KWT]

Looks like in the end tropical storm warnings were needed for Bermuda, does look like its getting close though there isn't much in the way of convection on that western side, so I can't imagine the winds being that high on that side.

[ronjon]

Nice RADAR of Bertha approaching Bermuda. Looks to be about 60 miles S-SE as of now. Still moving N-NW.

http://www.weather.bm/radarLarge.asp

[HURAKAN]

Nice image.

[HURAKAN]

She's coming back!

[KWT]

Yep convection does seem to be trying to wrap around that massive center its still got. Also thats a really good radar image from bermuda you can really see that huge center it has.

[Chacor]

Officially, using the best-track intensities, Bertha's ACE reached 20.06 at 06z. Using operational intensities, Bertha's ACE passed the 20 mark at 09z, reaching 20.195.

[ronjon]

Latest OBS from L.F. Wade Int'l Airport:

Wind
Kts Mph Temp RH Pressure
08:55 Overcast Rain NE 26/37 (30/43) 25(77) 86 1008 / 29.78

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Bertha does seem to be trying at least to wrap itself back around again, will be very interesting to see if it can keep this up, probably moving away from the upwelled waters.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It needs 5 more advisory's wrote for it to tie it for the longest since 2005. In 6 to break it! That is helene.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Bermuda now in what would be the Western side of the eye-wall, if Bertha had an eye. It does have a generally clear area near the center, but the storms around the 'eye' seem a bit too broken and disorganized to officially be an eye-wall.


Gusting over 40 knots now, per latest obs.

[hurricanefloyd5]

is it me or is BERMUDA being approached by the center of BIG BERTHA?http://www.weather.bm/radarLarge.asp

[Chacor]

SPBE20 TXKF 141409
SPECI TXKF 141409Z 03032G48KT 360V060 1600 -RA BR BKN007
OVC013 24/23 Q1005 RMK A2968 VIS 1SM ALQDS PK WND 02053/05

030° at 32 knots gusting to 48 knots at the international airport.

[Chacor]

WTNT42 KNHC 141458
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2008

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/6. BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A
NORTHWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND SLIDES EASTWARD. WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED 50-60 NMI FROM THE CENTER...
HOWEVER...THE PRECISE TRACK OF THE CENTER IS RELATIVELY UNIMPORTANT
FOR CONDITIONS ON BERMUDA...WHERE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. AFTER BERTHA PASSES BERMUDA...A
COMPLICATED STEERING PATTERNS AWAITS...WITH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 40N/42W FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWESTWARD. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE INTERACTION BETWEEN BERTHA
AND THE UPPER LOW. THE HWRF AND GFDL MAINTAIN A STRONG TROPICAL
CYCLONE AND SWING BERTHA RAPIDLY AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW...WHILE THE GFS LIFTS THE UPPER LOW NORTHEASTWARD AFTER ABOUT
72 HOURS...LEAVING BERTHA BEHIND. AS THE UPPER-LOW AND BERTHA
APPROACH...NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY...AND
I SUSPECT THE HWRF/GFDL SOLUTIONS ARE KEEPING BERTHA TOO STRONG AND
MAY THEREFORE BE OVERDOING THE INTERACTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE FSSE SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THERE IS NOT MUCH DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH BERTHA RIGHT
NOW...AND A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1030Z SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS MIGHT BE
A LITTLE BELOW THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 55 KT. A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE CYCLONE IN ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. THE
QUIKSCAT DATA REVEALED A 50-60 NMI RMW. GIVEN THIS STRUCTURE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED WHILE THE STORM IS IN
THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA. THE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE BERTHA ENCOUNTERS SOME
COOLER WATERS AND NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 14/1500Z 32.0N 63.8W 55 KT
12HR VT 15/0000Z 33.2N 63.9W 55 KT
24HR VT 15/1200Z 34.8N 63.2W 60 KT
36HR VT 16/0000Z 35.9N 62.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 16/1200Z 36.0N 61.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 17/1200Z 34.5N 58.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 18/1200Z 35.0N 55.0W 50 KT
120HR VT 19/1200Z 38.0N 51.0W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

From Franklin's discussion, the system he portrays would seem to be a subtropical storm rather than a tropical cyclone.

[KWT]

Yeah it doesn't seem to be all that far from being subtropical at least based on that discussion though I guess right now the waters are still warm enough to support pure tropical processes.

[93superstorm]

Looks like the Large center or eye is grazing bermuda now:

[Chacor]

It's a large centre. I certainly would not consider it an eye, and 55-knot subtropical-like storms tend not to have eyes.