ATL: Dolly Model Runs

ROCK · #141 Postby **ROCK** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 11:14 pm

Scorpion wrote:How is the run garbage.. 00Z is usually the best one to watch.

True, but it initializes a much weaker system but as we all know by SAT presentation it looks to be a TD by tomorrow. Thats an important little tidbit, IMO....

Scorpion · #142 Postby **Scorpion** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 11:16 pm

Don't look at intensity.. the GFS is junk with that. It showed Cat 5 Felix as a weak low and never forecasted its strengthening.

Extremeweatherguy · #143 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 11:16 pm

#144 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 11:16 pm

Slams the central Windwards on Friday. It bypasses any effects of Bertha according to this run. You've got high pressure shown UNDER Bertha.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114m.gif

ROCK · #145 Postby **ROCK** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 11:18 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:**I'm going to re-post this on this page so it does not get lost on page 7**

The 00z GFS is starting to run. I will post new model images as they become available...

12 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_012m.gif

24 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024m.gif

36 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036m.gif

48 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048m.gif

60 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060m.gif

72 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072m.gif

96 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096m.gif

120 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120m.gif

144 hrs = Not yet available.

168 hrs = Not yet available.

180 hrs = Not yet available.

--The model resolution is lower beyond hour 180, so expect a reduction in both track and strength accuracy.--

192 hrs = Not yet available.

216 hrs = Not yet available.

240 hrs = Not yet available.

LOOP = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

throw in the upper air graphics will ya.....thanks

boca · #146 Postby **boca** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 11:19 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:Slams the central Windwards on Friday. It bypasses any effects of Bertha according to this run. You've got high pressure shown UNDER Bertha.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114m.gif

I smell Jamaica and the Yucatan on this run.

Extremeweatherguy · #147 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 11:19 pm

The GFS is not being consistent with this system at all. Compare the last 3 runs to see what i'm talking about...

00z = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120m.gif

18z = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126m.gif

12z = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_132m.gif

ROCK · #148 Postby **ROCK** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 11:20 pm

boca wrote:
GeneratorPower wrote:Slams the central Windwards on Friday. It bypasses any effects of Bertha according to this run. You've got high pressure shown UNDER Bertha.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114m.gif

I smell Jamaica and the Yucatan on this run.

yeah but what a huge shift.....

Scorpion · #149 Postby **Scorpion** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 11:21 pm

Don't jump to conclusions.. I can easily see the GFS recurving it over Hispaniola or Cuba.

#150 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 11:22 pm

Not surprising about the lack of consistency. Those previous runs had much less to initialize off of.

#151 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 11:22 pm

But it's the synoptics I'm interested in. Watch the trend of the high and low pressures above 94L.

ROCK · #152 Postby **ROCK** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 11:25 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:But it's the synoptics I'm interested in. Watch the trend of the high and low pressures above 94L.

I see what you mean. MiamiWX seemed to suggest this very track. If to verify then guddos to him....

Extremeweatherguy · #153 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 11:26 pm

It moves more northwestward between hour 120 and 144.

#154 Postby **bvigal** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 11:30 pm

What's going on? Just got home and find they only ran BAMD 0z? It doesn't look great on sat right now, could it be possible that there's been a total about-face in models since 18z runs, and it's a fizzle?

ROCK · #155 Postby **ROCK** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 11:34 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:It moves more northwestward between hour 120 and 144.

got a feeling the high will be building back in as Bertha exits and a WNW track will resume....

boca · #156 Postby **boca** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 11:35 pm

bvigal wrote:What's going on? Just got home and find they only ran BAMD 0z? It doesn't look great on sat right now, could it be possible that there's been a total about-face in models since 18z runs, and it's a fizzle?

On sat it looks good and I think the 00GFS doesn't have a good handle on it as far as intensity.

ROCK · #157 Postby **ROCK** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 11:36 pm

Looks to be destroyed by PR and Hispa.....at 168hr

As suspected Bertha exits high builds back in and WNW she goes to its death....

#158 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 11:36 pm

bvigal wrote:What's going on? Just got home and find they only ran BAMD 0z? It doesn't look great on sat right now, could it be possible that there's been a total about-face in models since 18z runs, and it's a fizzle?

Hey my friend! SHIP didnt ran at 00z,maybe a technnical problem? But 8 PM TWO was very bullish talking of TD forming at anytime.

Extremeweatherguy · #159 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 11:37 pm

The GFS pretty much loses the system by hour 168. This is completely opposite of most of its earlier runs, and it seems very odd, IMO. Something about this run just doesn't seem believable to me. From the poor initialization ( http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_000m.gif ), to the very weak "peak" intensity ( http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096m.gif ), to the strange shift in forecasted motion ( http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml ). Lets wait and see what the 6z and 12z GFS runs do...

ROCK · #160 Postby **ROCK** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 11:40 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:The GFS pretty much loses the system by hour 168. This is completely opposite of most of its earlier runs, and it seems very odd, IMO.

garbage in garbage out IMO.....

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