ATL: Dolly Model Runs

[Derek Ortt]

Does anyone know where wxman57 gets that model he uses which show the synoptics a week from now?

its from a weather display program called GARP

To run it... you need to receive all of the data on your machine. I use that same program for satellite and radar imagery and also to diagnose model synoptics

[ROCK]

man, another 15 minutes before the GFS run....the suspense is killing me...

[Extremeweatherguy]

For entertainment purposes only the mighty 0z NAM....


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml


keeps it way to weak....thus the westerly track....

I don't even think that is 94L on the NAM run. It looks to be something else. There is just no way that 94L could make it all the way to the vicinity of Jamaica in only 84 hours. The system would have to pick up some amazing speed for that to happen! lol.

[deltadog03]

To me, from the GFS, there seems to be a very good upper enviroment for this to really take off to the races. Even by day 4-5 when its near the islands, there is an upper anti-cyclone at 200mb and there is some kind of weakness from bertha, but its really far to (christobal's) location. At that point its up in the air.

[ftolmsteen]

gfs has this ramming in Hispanola. Bad thing is, that's at the end of the run, so odds are it'll change.

[ROCK]

For entertainment purposes only the mighty 0z NAM....


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml


keeps it way to weak....thus the westerly track....

I don't even think that is 94L on the NAM run. It looks to be something else. There is just no way that 94L could make it all the way to the vicinity of Jamaica in only 84 hours. The system would have to pick up some amazing speed for that to happen! lol.

I dont know seems to be the only player in the vicinity and does enter the carib at a low lat......maybe seeing something in front of it but then again its the NAM which is worthless in the tropics....

[tailgater]

Different wave with low.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 00z GFS is starting to run. I will post new model images as they become available...

12 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_012m.gif

24 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024m.gif

36 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036m.gif

48 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048m.gif

60 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060m.gif

72 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072m.gif

96 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096m.gif

120 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120m.gif

144 hrs = See pg. 8

168 hrs = See pg. 8

180 hrs = See pg. 8

--The model resolution is lower beyond hour 180, so expect a reduction in both track and strength accuracy.--

192 hrs = See pg. 8

216 hrs = See pg. 8

240 hrs = See pg. 8

LOOP = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[ROCK]

I have a funny feeling this run is garbage

[GeneratorPower]

It's running it almost due west.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It is keeping the system much weaker than in past runs too.

[ROCK]

It's running it almost due west.

yep....I am sniffing something is not right in the intialization....or maybe feedback...

[boca]

It is keeping the system much weaker than in past runs too.

Its definately garbage. To think I could of been sleeping by now.

[GeneratorPower]

It is keeping the system much weaker than in past runs too.

Yeah, but does that mean diddly squat? I remember it showing Dean as a 1010mb low all the way to Central America. I just don't think that intensity is accurately represented in that model. Oddly enough, it seems to get the tracks correct.

[Scorpion]

How is the run garbage.. 00Z is usually the best one to watch.

[GeneratorPower]

I don't think it's garbage. I think the trend is our friend. Look at the high pressure under Bertha. That's the big news here, not the silly little low.

[cycloneye]

I would not put enfasis in intensity as the track is more important.Look last year when Dean was a cat 5 and GFS had almost nothing.

[boca]

On the 78th hour it looks like a weak wave.

[Jason_B]

I have a funny feeling this run is garbage

That or our first bust of the year.

[Scorpion]

Caribbean this run.