Breaking news: Moving NW at 14 mph 18.3n-83.6w at 2:00 PM

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 1:05 pm

http://www.tormenta.net/frame_page.asp? ... /MIATCPAT4

NW movement is a major implication to the GOM so GOMERS keep watching the track that surely it will be more right .

GulfBreezer · #2 Postby **GulfBreezer** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 1:10 pm

At this rate, she may miss the Yucatan altogether!! Talk about a totally different scenario!!! :o :o :o All bets are off for me! There seems to be a surprise around every corner with her! :? :? :?

Superstorm · #3 Postby **Superstorm** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 1:15 pm

If it misses the Yucatan, the potential for rapid intensification is definitely there. :o This means New Orleans could be in very deep trouble!

Rainband · #4 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 1:19 pm

Superstorm wrote:If it misses the Yucatan, the potential for rapid intensification is definitely there. :o This means New Orleans could be in very deep trouble!

anywhere in the GOM could be in trouble!!! :o

mf_dolphin · #5 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 1:21 pm

From the last fix that's a due north track over the last 3 hours. It's probably just a relocation as opposed to a real track change. the 5PM will be real interesting for sure!

#6 Postby **Steve** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 1:22 pm

>>If it misses the Yucatan, the potential for rapid intensification is definitely there. This means New Orleans could be in very deep trouble!

LOL Superstorm. We're in trouble anyways. But the trof axis is liable to be somewhere between 85-90W. If it is the _principal_ player, even areas east of here would have to put up their guards. The models posted on the other thread do show the NWish component followed by a turn to the west.

We shall see.

Steve

Rainband · #7 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 1:24 pm

mf_dolphin wrote:From the last fix that's a due north track over the last 3 hours. It's probably just a relocation as opposed to a real track change. the 5PM will be real interesting for sure!

*Marshall waits for the 5pm with more anticipation than the next Lord of the rings movie* :lol:

#8 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 1:26 pm

Yes Marshall at 5 PM we will see how the models are on their tracks a little bit to the right but how far right is still the question.

ColdFront77 · #9 Postby **ColdFront77** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 1:30 pm

While watching the satellite images/loops today I was thinking that the center may just clip or miss the Yucatan peninsula.

A relocation is as important if not more important than a true movement. Like Luis mentioned, a relocated center will make the future model data more interesting.

Perhaps its a little of both, there has been at least an appearance of a more northerly component through the late morning to early afternoon.

mf_dolphin · #10 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 1:39 pm

December 17th for Lord of the Rings - Return of the KIng! lol At least I know right where that will be. With Claudette we don't know lol I still think that this northerly component is more of a relocation of the center than a true track change. Only time will tell :-)

#11 Postby **Pebbles** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 1:41 pm

mf_dolphin wrote:December 17th for Lord of the Rings - Return of the KIng! lol At least I know right where that will be. With Claudette we don't know lol I still think that this northerly component is more of a relocation of the center than a true track change. Only time will tell

LOL..all I have to say is DITTO!! :lol:

southerngale · #12 Postby **southerngale** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 2:29 pm

mf_dolphin wrote:From the last fix that's a due north track over the last 3 hours. It's probably just a relocation as opposed to a real track change. the 5PM will be real interesting for sure!

You may be right about the relocation but look closely at the visible loop. It sure looks like a northern jog to me.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

Lindaloo · #13 Postby **Lindaloo** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 2:34 pm

Pretty impressive Kelly!! It definitely looks to be jogging more N. (Wicked).

Tip · #14 Postby **Tip** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 2:42 pm

It seems that this turn to the north and I believe it's more than a jog looking at the latest loops, will position Claudette to miss the Yuctan. Also, the turn seems to have affected her strength which is now 1005mil per last vort message-almost a 10 mil rise!!

ColdFront77 · #15 Postby **ColdFront77** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 2:45 pm

The 1005 millibar pressure reading was apparently not where the center was located.

Tip · #16 Postby **Tip** » Thu Jul 10, 2003 2:57 pm

Thanks CF you are correct. the reading was taken 5 nautical miles from the approximate center.

Breaking news: Moving NW at 14 mph 18.3n-83.6w at 2:00 PM

Breaking news: Moving NW at 14 mph 18.3n-83.6w at 2:00 PM

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