Vort Message?

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Tip
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Vort Message?

#1 Postby Tip » Thu Jul 10, 2003 12:21 pm

Doesn't this message indicate a full-fledged hurricane?

000
URNT12 KNHC 101526
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/1526Z
B. 18 DEG 00 MIN N
83 DEG 16 MIN W
C. 700 MB 3076 M
D. 45 KT
E. 149 DEG 32 NM
F. 206 DEG 76 KT
G. 148 DEG 3 NM
H. EXTRAP 995 MB
I. 9 C/ 3034 M
J. 14 C/ 3066 M
K. 8 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C9
N. 12345/7
O. 1/5 NM
P. AF977 0704A CLAUDETTE OB 18
MAX FL WIND 76 KT SE QUAD 1525Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 700MB.
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cycloneye
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#2 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 10, 2003 12:41 pm

That position 18.0 n is more north than advisory position so it has jogged more north and that is crucial in terms of the track and the implications in the GOM.
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#3 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Jul 10, 2003 12:45 pm

Those north movements do not bode well for the states. Someone will be in trouble early next week.
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#4 Postby GulfBreezer » Thu Jul 10, 2003 12:56 pm

Well, this changes everything doesn't it! Like I said in another thread......she is going to continue to throw us curve balls and the bottom line is that we just really have no earthly idea where she is going or how she is going to get there............... :? :? :? :? :? :? :?
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Maybe / Maybe Not

#5 Postby Steve Cosby » Thu Jul 10, 2003 1:00 pm

If I'm reading that message correctly, maximum surface wind at 85% of 76KT would be 65KT. Isn't the ratio for surface wind estimate 85% of the maximum wind from 10,000 feet?

But, isn't there also a reference to estimated surface wind at 45KT?

She's obviously real close - to paraphrase another met: "Can the people on the Yucutan really tell the difference between a Cat 1 hurricane versus a 65KT Tropical Storm. Can you hear 'em say, "Oh, it was just a tropical storm - it wasn't a hurricane - whew!"
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#6 Postby Guest » Thu Jul 10, 2003 1:01 pm

When is the next recon flight into Claudette?
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#7 Postby Tip » Thu Jul 10, 2003 1:15 pm

Looks like a 1800Z flight is scheduled. And the jet is scheduled for tomorrow.

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 10/12OO,1800Z A. 11/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0704A CLAUDETTE B. NOAA9 0804A CLAUDETTE
C. 10/0800Z C. 10/1700Z
D. 17.6N 83.8W D. NA
E. 10/1130Z TO 10/1830Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT. F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT.

FLIGHT THREE
A. 11/0000,0600Z
B. AFXXX 0904A CLAUDETTE
C. 10/2030Z
D. 19.1N 86.7W
E. 10/2330Z TO 11/0630Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT.
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