ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[MiamiensisWx]

Evening everyone. I am following along and reading... not really posting too much. Thanks to everyone who is taking time to make substantive posts.

Quick thought/question... looks like the system may set up a little further north than the models are initializing it. Doesn't that kind of throw the model tracks we are seeing off in relation to impacts on the islands?

Nope; check my post:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=1735267#p1735267

[KWT]

Yep Hurakan hardly surprisng given the wording of that TWO, couldn't be much more agressive then that.

Looks like the center is developing just to the south of the deep convection right now, close enough to help strengthen it.

[Aric Dunn]

not surprised at all with that TWO right in line for it to be a TD .. as i said this morning rapid orginization was likely...

[Weatherfreak000]

Future Cristobal has a much better chance at U.S. Landfall then Bertha ever had IMO. A storm having to traverse the entire Atlantic such as Bertha is always a good candidate for recurvature.

That said my previous post regarding Florida was semi-humorous. Florida gets black listed because of the sheer amount of people I disagree with and everyone knows that. I think we can definitely agree Florida and perhaps a path into the Gulf may possibly be a legitimate threat this time around given recent model runs but again it's too early.

[Aric Dunn]

well by chance the system is sitting right in between two buoys this evening one just the north(41026) and one just to the south (13009)
anyway the only surface data depicts a closed low as the northern buoy has a east wind and the southern has a west wind.. although not very symmetrical

41026
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41026

13009
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=13009

[kpost]

can definitely see improvement

[KWT]

Quite possibly Aric, the thing is there is no reason why it won't develop fairly quickly as well once it does eventually gain a center.

[Chacor]

Why has that one disturbance seemingly split into two?

[Mecklenburg]

atlantic is waking up early this season...

[Cyclenall]

The following post is NOT an official forecast or product and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

First % chance that Invest 94L will become a:

Tropical Depression: 95%
Tropical Storm: 90%
Hurricane: 70% (a bit early)
Category 2 Hurricane: 50%
Category 3,4, and 5 Hurricane: Unknown %

This is not from any program or scientific formula, this is just my thoughts alone on the %'s.

This is ramping up much more quickly then I thought it would. Everyone is bullish on the same system, something I haven't seen in a long time.

[Sanibel]

Convection jumped up to the center near 12N-39W. Better form up there. Looks like a spinner. Still too early to tell for sure.

[drezee]

I actually am not liking this one at all. I feel that it is heading to land...

[canegrl04]

atlantic is waking up early this season...

It will be very ominous to say the least if this become hurricane Cristobol and strikes the US.We haven't gotten to the heart of the season yet. I wonder how many JUly canes struck the US

[weatherguru18]

Future Cristobal has a much better chance at U.S. Landfall then Bertha ever had IMO. A storm having to traverse the entire Atlantic such as Bertha is always a good candidate for recurvature.

That said my previous post regarding Florida was semi-humorous. Florida gets black listed because of the sheer amount of people I disagree with and everyone knows that. I think we can definitely agree Florida and perhaps a path into the Gulf may possibly be a legitimate threat this time around given recent model runs but again it's too early.

Yeah, but with a negitive NAO, recurvature is supposed to be less likely is it not?

[MiamiensisWx]

This one could be a TD now, though classification will likely not occur until tomorrow. The next QuikSCAT pass will be very revealing.

[KWT]

Agreed Dreeze one way or another I think this one is gonig to be a threat to land somewhere along the line its just a matter of where abouts I feel sadly.

Sanibel, seems like center is still to the south of the convection, to be expected given the center is still weak right now and for now as long as deep convection is somewhat near the center its a good sign for development.

Miami I agree but they will hold for a little while yet I feel, next 24hrs its looking likely though.

[jusjas]

Hi all,

I live in Trinidad - the most southerly isle of the Caribbean. Can I ask someone a question please? What is the chance of invest 94 hitting Trinidad? Thanks

Regards
jusjas

[chadtm80]

Full Info - http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... &year=2008

Invest94 Track (2008) view table

Date
(UTC) Position Pressure
mb (in) Winds
mph (kts)
Lat Lon

Code: Select all

Date   (UTC) Position Pressure  mb (in) Winds  mph (kts) Lat Lon
 Jul 13, 2008 1800 9.3N 38.2W 29.77 (1008) 29 (25)
Jul 13, 2008 1200 8.9N 37.2W 29.77 (1008) 29 (25)
Jul 13, 2008 0600 8.8N 36.6W 29.83 (1010) 23 (20)
Jul 13, 2008 0000 8.7N 36W 29.8 (1009) 23 (20)
Jul 12, 2008 1800 8.6N 35.6W 29.8 (1009) 23 (20)
Jul 12, 2008 1200 8.5N 35W 29.8 (1009) 23 (20)
Jul 12, 2008 0600 8.5N 34.2W 29.8 (1009) 23 (20

)

[orion]

Why has that one disturbance seemingly split into two?

I noticed that too, Chacor... I think on the previous page. It was interesting to watch on the floater as it looked like it just pulled itself apart right about the time the convection was firing more on the northern part.

[HURAKAN]