TC Bertha

[cycloneye]

Avila once again in the sense of humor mode

BERTHA FOOLED ME ONCE AGAIN. IT APPEARS THAT BERTHA BEGAN A
NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT EARLIER TODAY BUT...IN FACT...IT WAS MOVING IN
CIRCLES AND IT COULD BE DOING ONE OF THESE LOOPS AGAIN.

[MiamiensisWx]

Bertha is becoming an absolutely unvanquished pest for Bermuda and forecasters.

[Aric Dunn]

i figured it out.... see bertha is caught in the brumuda triangle!!!!! wwwwooooooo....

weird things happen there....

personally i have never seen a system literally stall and not move at all for this long.. i mean most systems do larger cyclonic loops she is almost really just not moving at all, well very small cyclonic loops..

[DESTRUCTION5]

If this thing was stuck like this aug-Spt it would be ready to make a beline back to the states with a stronger bermuda high...

[MiamiensisWx]

If this thing was stuck like this aug-Spt it would be ready to make a beline back to the states with a stronger bermuda high...

Actually, the subtropical ridging at H5 is climatologically stronger in July and most of August as wavelengths are shorter. Conversely, longwave troughs become more prevalent and wavelengths expand during late August, September, and subsequent months. Bertha has stalled because of the persistent anticyclonic wind vectors directly overhead at 200 mb. The anticyclone has resulted in lethargic, erratic movement or no movement. If an identical synoptic set-up was present in August, the system would still recurve because of the cutoff low to the east and the presence of shortwave troughs displacing or weakening the anticyclone.

Based on WV data, it is likely that Bertha will eventually slowly begin to recurve overnight. The anticyclone is clearly beginning to be suppressed. The one factor that could result in a slower recurvature is the fact that Bertha is becoming increasingly shallow as it weakens due to upwelling from its slow movement. Consequently, it is less influenced by upper level features. Therefore, the operational GFS, GFS ensembles, Euro, and other models depict a very slow NE and ENE movement of Bertha during the next four to five days.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_wv_ls_0.html

[HURAKAN]

Original.

[brunota2003]

You did that on GIMP 2, Hurakan?

[HURAKAN]

You did that on GIMP 2, Hurakan?

Photobucket.

[JonathanBelles]

Looks like your looking into a petri dish.

[brunota2003]

You did that on GIMP 2, Hurakan?

Photobucket.

Ah. I know you can do that on GIMP 2 also.

[HURAKAN]

THE CLAW!

[Category 5]

This is the closest you're going to get to watching a Hurricane commit suicide.

[weatherguru18]

Is it just me, or does it look as though Bertha is taking on subtropical characteristics??

[Ad Novoxium]

Is it just me, or does it look as though Bertha is taking on subtropical characteristics??

Actually, no. I thought that too. It's not impossible for a tropical cyclone to go subtropical (84's Klaus did this, same with Allison), but on the end, I don't think it's becoming ST, but just displaced.

[weatherguru18]

Is it just me, or does it look as though Bertha is taking on subtropical characteristics??

Actually, no. I thought that too. It's not impossible for a tropical cyclone to go subtropical (84's Klaus did this, same with Allison), but on the end, I don't think it's becoming ST, but just displaced.

Yeah, I practically got jumped here at A&M for uttering the word subtropical about Allison. We had a grad student do his thesis as to why Allison was a full blown tropical system.

[KWT]

Indeed I said earlier it looks a little like a system when it shows the first sign of going ET with all the convection getting lumped to one side. I guess if it took long enough it would go sub tropical first, its really interesting to watch Bertha even at this stage of its life!

[curtadams]

Bertha is over fairly cool water now and a ST transition seems reasonable to me.

[Ad Novoxium]

A subtropical transition, of course, stops Bertha's ACE dead. Subtropical storms and phases don't count in totalling ACE calculations. If it is, in fact, undergoing ST transition, than one can easily say that, in terms of ACE, Bertha's gone, unless it becomes subtropical from tropical, then reverts back; something that has never occured in Atlantic history, as far as I know.

[HURAKAN]

Trying to wrap around again.

[KWT]

Ah yes that convection is indeed trying to re-wrap around that western side which has been pretty bare all day.