ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[KWT]

It does seem to be starting to looks more like a tropical system in that image above, I think this has got a good chance of being a player.

[NDG]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 130845.GIF

Bertha and possible Cristóbal are trying to improve this year their bad show in 2002. Bertha already did it hands down.

This zoomed in loop, it clearly shows that the floater is following the ML circualtion, nothing but SW winds at the surface all the way NW from the MLC to near 10N & 40W.

[RL3AO]

[KWT]

I think the thing is with the centerits still pretty broad and thats probably why IMO it won't organise quite as fast as some think at least at first.

[cycloneye]

From the 2 PM Discussion.

......SPECIAL FEATURE.....

STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15
KT. A 1009 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 9N. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS A LARGE WELL DEFINED ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC
TURNING...FOCUSED NEAR THE LOW CENTER. SHIP TBWUK18 REPORTED 27
KT S WINDS SE OF THE LOW CENTER AT 12Z...UNFORTUNATELY BOTH
ASCAT AND QSCAT MISSED THE REGION. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240
NM W AND 60 NM E SEMICIRCLES. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS LOCATED
WITHIN THE INTERSECTION OF THE ITCZ FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 36W-44W.
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[hawkeh]

Anyone else thinking this could develop faster than expected?

[KWT]

Its hard to say really, it doesn't look bad at all but it still looks a good deal too broad. The longer it takes the more southerly the tracks from the global models will have to adjust IMO and the more then do the greater the threat to the central Caribbean islands. Oh well we are just going to have to watch very closely.By the way does anyone have the historical match for storms in July I saw it posted earlier?

[weatherguru18]

Boy, it's VERY low latitude. I don't look for anything on this system til' tomorrow at the earliest.

[Aric Dunn]

Anyone else thinking this could develop faster than expected?

i mentioned it already in an earlier post... with a breif analysis there after..

[HURAKAN]

Low shear, high SST, very low dry air, lots of moisture. All indicates RI after the LLC establishes itself.

[KWT]

I just hope this doesn't decide to do an Emily on us. Chances are it won't get as strong as that but if it can track far enough into the Caribbean and shear remains low there is no reason I foresee why it can't become a powerful system.

Once it can establish itself it mayu well strengthen quickly.

PS, I feel another top 10 thread coming up!

[Aric Dunn]

Low shear, high SST, very low dry air, lots of moisture. All indicates RI after the LLC establishes itself.

agreed.. key point to remeber though .. it must break off from the itcz axis first.. as of right now its embened with in it.

remember the wave that became chris 2006 it was stuck withing the itcz and the nhc waited until it had completly broke away before upgrading to a TS

[RL3AO]

Once the Caribbean actually has shear of less than 40kts, this season could get scary.

[Duddy]

Yep, an active season it will be. 2004 maybe?

[MiamiensisWx]

Watch the H5 cutoff low to the east of Bertha as it moves SSE.

This system will be steered by the low level east to west steering currents (wind vectors) on the south side of the surface ridge within the short term until it reaches the Windwards' vicinity. At that time, it should start to feel the effects of the building mid to upper level ridge over the Caribbean and E CONUS, especially as Bertha ejects NE in response to the adjacent cutoff low. This cutoff low will also act to amplify the H5 ridging to the south and west of Bertha as well. The scenario where a H5 cutoff low allows the recurvature of a mature TC and the quicker building of the upper level ridge to the south has occurred in many past situations.

This is another "piece of the puzzle" that may support the view that the operational GFS and GFDL are too quick and pronounced with the NW movement.

WV loop:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_wv_ls_0.html

[brunota2003]

Would Isabel be one of those "past" situations?

[jlauderdal]

Anyone else thinking this could develop faster than expected?

how fast is it supposed to develop?

[MiamiensisWx]

Would Isabel be one of those "past" situations?

The "mature" TC is Bertha. I don't believe the synoptic pattern with Isabel featured a H5 cutoff low to the east that amplified the upper level ridging to the south and west. However, I can recall other cases, though I can't name the exact TCs at the moment. Bertha's recurvature hinges on the cutoff low to the east inducing the NE movement. As Bertha recurves and moves NE after passing very close to Bermuda, the amplification of the upper ridging to the south and west may be quite pronounced as the cutoff low drifts SSE.

[brunota2003]

Would Isabel be one of those "past" situations?

The "mature" TC is Bertha. I don't believe the synoptic pattern with Isabel featured a H5 cutoff low to the east that amplified the upper level ridging to the south and west. However, I can recall other cases, though I can't name the exact TCs at the moment. Bertha's recurvature hinges on the cutoff low to the east inducing the NE movement. As Bertha recurves and moves NE after passing very close to Bermuda, the amplification of the upper ridging to the south and west may be quite pronounced as the cutoff low drifts SSE.

Well, in the case I was refering to, Isabel was supposed to follow Fabian out to sea near Bermuda, but the ridge built in quicker than forecast...I dont know as to why, though.

[MiamiensisWx]

Additional convection is developing because of excellent low level convergence and ascent of parcels:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html