Will this impressive african wave be Danny?

[cycloneye]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/GOOY.html

Bill and Claudette came out from Africa as tropical waves and also TD#2 so this wave that looks well organized may be a player downthe road but of course it has the usual obstacules ahead dry air and shear although the shear has faded there is still some in portions of the tropical atlantic.At Dakar they reported 1008 mbs as the wave passed there this afternoon.

[Colin]

Thanks for the info Ceye...I'll be keeping my eye on this system too..may very well become Danny!

[wxman57]

I sure could use ONE week without a storm to catch up. That wave is at 15N, though - maybe too far north to make it into the Caribbean. Water may be a bit cool up that far north in July, too. But I think it's a sign of a very active Cape Verde season - and a very great threat of a major hurricane landfall in Florida or the southeast U.S., eastern Gulf.

[chadtm80]

[The_Cycloman_PR]

The convection reach 15,N but all it's configuration ends around 8,N. Also we have to wait to see where the low realy is. If it has a low, and that it's very likely looking at the latest satellite image, it may be around 10 to 12,N. With it's low on that latitudes it could then be more a player than a fishstorm for the islands and later for US if it develops over the Atlantic. Remember that the Azores and Bermuda high are strong this year and we may see less fish storms during this season, but all of this are speculations at this moment.

The next 2 days will be the key...! If it mantain the convection and keep it's integrity and the rotation, it will be the first tropical wave to make it in this season(keep it's structure after getting into water off African coast), note that all the waves that has come out Africa this year, even the healthier ones, has lost all the convection and even it's signature south of the Cape Verde islands. Thisone could be the first tropical wave to mantain good signature, deep convection and may even have a developing low south of Cape Verde. In that case then it could be a strong player next week, so it's deserve watching! Again... I will depend of how it behave during the next couple of days, that's the key.

Let's see if conditions over the CV area has become favorable for development or not, If so then we could see a tropical system very far in the Atlantic with a September behavior, ON JULY!!! :o

We have very interesting days ahead and a couple of exiting months!! My only hope is that everyone stay safe!


Wow! What a season!!

pd...Watch out friends of the Gulf!! Claudette it's gaining convection again! Maybe the upper level low that was producing the southwesterly shear is weakening.


Cycloman.

[cycloneye]

http://www.storm2k.org/Weather-Central/ ... lantic.htm

If they mention it in the tropical weather lotlook so far off africa is because the TPC see this system with a chance to develop because this wave is moving still against climatology but if it survives the next 2 days as Cycloman PR says it well may be a big player down the road.

[cycloneye]

http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus/AI/200 ... 0AI1_g.jpg

It has been over the water now for the past 24 hours and continues to look like a big player down the road.

[wx247]

It has lost its real deep thunderstorms it had for a few images last once emerging from the African coast. We will have to wait and see if the weakened convection can sustain itself.