Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs

[Frank2]

Of course this thread is for the discussion of model runs, but, the comment was made because it does seem that some partake in -removed-, which is not a good thing, since the public in general (not those who post here) are fairly clueless when it comes to what is going on outside their door, so, unfounded comments can contribute in a big way to rumor control...

And, S2K admin is well aware that the media knows well of their site (it's been in at least two national news articles), so, reporters have at least bookmarked this site, and, in a case like today's, will visit here to see "what the latest thoughts are", so, we need to post responsibly - you never know who's reading our posts...

Frank

[storms in NC]

Yes...I'm thinking of a stall too...a "sit and brewer"

I said that a few pages back I think. I was told it might slow or stall By someone I know that is a met. And they are good at their Job. But I am still going with the slide by Bermuda track. But any thing can happen. It is weather.

[jinftl]

Again, this is an open forum which clearly states the views expressed are opinions. No reputable news agency would use postings here as a basis for generating news. "Posting responsibly" is heading in the direction of limiting/censoring views that can be expressed....which would essentially lead to the demise of this forum since members could no longer be comfortable posting. The threat of some sinister "Big Brother Watching" is not a reason to kill the best part of this forum...the enthusiasm of its members. Nor has any who runs this forum alerted its members of the need to 'post responsibly' because of such threats.

Of course this thread is for the discussion of model runs, but, the comment was made because it does seem that some partake in -removed-, which is not a good thing, since the public in general (not those who post here) are fairly clueless when it comes to what is going on outside their door, so, unfounded comments can contribute in a big way to rumor control...

And, S2K admin is well aware that the media knows well of their site (it's been in at least two national news articles), so, reporters have at least bookmarked this site, and, in a case like today's, will visit here to see "what the latest thoughts are", so, we need to post responsibly - you never know who's reading our posts...

Frank

[crownweather]

One thought I had, and please let me know if you agree or disagree, is that if Bertha weakens in 4 or 5 days back down to say tropical storm strength and it slows way down or stalls, it would become a more shallow storm and thus be steered more by the low-level wind flow and this could lead to a more westward track and a eventual curve closer to 70 or even 72 West Longitude.

Just a thought!!

[kpost]

One thought I had, and please let me know if you agree or disagree, is that if Bertha weakens in 4 or 5 days back down to say tropical storm strength and it slows way down or stalls, it would become a more shallow storm and thus be steered more by the low-level wind flow and this could lead to a more westward track and a eventual curve closer to 70 or even 72 West Longitude.

Just a thought!!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2008070706&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
it seems that the GFS is considering the same thing

the CMC is also leaning a little more left

[Frank2]

Again, this is an open forum which clearly states the views expressed are opinions. No reputable news agency would use postings here as a basis for generating news. "Posting responsibly" is heading in the direction of limiting/censoring views that can be expressed....which would essentially lead to the demise of this forum since members could no longer be comfortable posting. The threat of some sinister "Big Brother Watching" is not a reason to kill the best part of this forum...the enthusiasm of its members. Nor has any who runs this forum alerted its members of the need to 'post responsibly' because of such threats.

It seems many in this country mistake freedom to mean saying or doing whatever they please (a/k/a anarchy), when, actually freedom means to be responsible with the freedom we are given, since it is something that is given to us, and, that also applies to random comments here - last Friday, some here commented on Bertha by saying "Head for the hills!" - that's not being responsible, but, it sure adds to the rumor mill...

Anyway, it's too early in the day for my face to get flushed, so, back to Bertha...

[Sjones]

Ohh Geez

[cycloneye]

Ok folks,lets continue to post model runs and make comments about them and lets leave this sideshow away.

[jinftl]

wow...let's not turn this into more than it was...you were frustrated because members were discussing scenarios for bertha that the models weren't forecasting...patriotism was not invoked by your initial response, and has no place here...now, back to bertha....models trending west!

Again, this is an open forum which clearly states the views expressed are opinions. No reputable news agency would use postings here as a basis for generating news. "Posting responsibly" is heading in the direction of limiting/censoring views that can be expressed....which would essentially lead to the demise of this forum since members could no longer be comfortable posting. The threat of some sinister "Big Brother Watching" is not a reason to kill the best part of this forum...the enthusiasm of its members. Nor has any who runs this forum alerted its members of the need to 'post responsibly' because of such threats.

It seems many in this country mistake freedom to mean saying or doing whatever they please (a/k/a anarchy), when, actually freedom means to be responsible with the freedom we are given, since it is something that is given to us, and, that also applies to random comments here - last Friday, some here commented on Bertha by saying "Head for the hills!" - that's not being responsible, but, it sure adds to the rumor mill...

Anyway, it's too early in the day for my face to get flushed, so, back to Bertha...

[cycloneye]

Ok folks,lets continue to post model runs and make comments about them and lets leave this sideshow away.

[kpost]

naive question..

on an earlier post the high that was coming was shown to sit in a perfect circle over florida and that was supposed to help with steering Bertha north and east
this link shows a different setup.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day6nav_precolor.html

My questions are could this change steering and if so how?

Sorry i am new and just trying to learn

[Bane]

Of course this thread is for the discussion of model runs, but, the comment was made because it does seem that some partake in -removed-, which is not a good thing, since the public in general (not those who post here) are fairly clueless when it comes to what is going on outside their door, so, unfounded comments can contribute in a big way to rumor control...

And, S2K admin is well aware that the media knows well of their site (it's been in at least two national news articles), so, reporters have at least bookmarked this site, and, in a case like today's, will visit here to see "what the latest thoughts are", so, we need to post responsibly - you never know who's reading our posts...

Frank

if a reporter reads something from here and takes it as a fact without much proof, they aren't much of a reporter.

[Aric Dunn]

nice to see the bam models in agreement for once with this storm. thats always a good sign.. not a good sign is the left turn they are making..

[boca]

nice to see the bam models in agreement for once with this storm. thats always a good sign.. not a good sign is the left turn they are making..

Isn't the bam more accurate south of 20n?

[ronjon]

I'm wondering if we're starting to see an early trend with the BAM & 06Z GFS toward a westward track toward the end of the five day run. Perhaps high pressure may be stronger in western Atlantic than earlier thought. The problem this time of year is that we just don't get these strong troughs to sweep these storms out to sea. It looks like now that either Bertha will stall south of Bermuda or get pushed west.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=2854,19644915,2854_19644936:2854_19645022:2854_19645029&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL

[kpost]

Do models always wave like flags or is this unusual?

[boca]

I'm wondering if we're starting to see an early trend with the BAM & 06Z GFS toward a westward track toward the end of the five day run. Perhaps high pressure may be stronger in western Atlantic than earlier thought. The problem this time of year is that we just don't get these strong troughs to sweep these storms out to sea. It looks like now that either Bertha will stall south of Bermuda or get pushed west.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=2854,19644915,2854_19644936:2854_19645022:2854_19645029&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL

Why is the NHC track keep shifting east after each advisory when like you said the Bam and 06zGFS are trending west.

[Thunder44]

The GFS has been further west because it has a weaker storm. The 12z run today initialized Bertha as an open wave.

[Steve]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

Early Cycle 12z

Steve

[wzrgirl1]

How much creedence do you put towards the BAM model runs as of recent? Could it do a loop with a system this strong?