Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs

[cycloneye]

32N by 67W

Just West of Bermuda.

[KWT]

Yep IMO of course, hopefully that would be far enough west to keep the island away from the worst of it. Wouldn't take a big shift in terms of the GFDL track to put this systems western quadrant into Bermuda.

[Duddy]

most models, except for HWRF have been OUTSTANDING on Bertha

There is no reaosn to totally discount them... unless one does not like what they say

Dude, the models have been predicting a hard North Curve. None of them have been even remotely correct. I know, I've been watching them.

This is gonna end up just like Dean as far as model guidance goes.


And I could care less for where this storm goes. It's not in the Gulf, so it's not getting me excited.

I only wishcast on Carib. and Gulf storms.

[Squarethecircle]

most models, except for HWRF have been OUTSTANDING on Bertha

There is no reaosn to totally discount them... unless one does not like what they say

Dude, the models have been predicting a hard North Curve. None of them have been even remotely correct. I know, I've been watching them.

This is gonna end up just like Dean as far as model guidance goes.


And I could care less for where this storm goes. It's not in the Gulf, so it's not getting me excited.

I only wishcast on Carib. and Gulf storms.

It doesn't work that way. Just because model guidance has been bad so far does not in any way point to continued under-performance.

[Steve]

>>Dude, the models have been predicting a hard North Curve. None of them have been even remotely correct. I know, I've been watching them.

I feel the same way. But I'm assuming Derek is qualifying it out to 48 or 72 hours only though and just didn't come out and say so. Clearly the 4-5 day range has been consistently wrong and far from "OUTSTANDING." Bertha would have already recurved or be in the midst of it now if they were.



Steve

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

>>Dude, the models have been predicting a hard North Curve. None of them have been even remotely correct. I know, I've been watching them.

I feel the same way. But I'm assuming Derek is qualifying it out to 48 or 72 hours only though and just didn't come out and say so. Clearly the 4-5 day range has been consistently wrong and far from "OUTSTANDING." Bertha would have already recurved or be in the midst of it now if they were.



Steve

Too true, best to adopt a wait and see approach with this one I say (which is always a good rule of thumb with TCs anyhow).

[Dean4Storms]

One thing for sure is that the models have not handled the synoptics surrounding Bertha beyond 3 days or so thus far. They seem to be underestimating the expansion of the ridge or overestimating the strength of the weaknesses or both so far. I'm not buying into any solution beyond 3-4 days right now. Best thing for now is to forget the 5 day forecast line and focus on the 3 day or so forecasts, if Bertha keeps riding south of those forecasts from here on out all bets are off. Three days ago most of the guidance had her already turning more NW into a weakness in the ridge now and we see they were wrong.


GFS 00z Run on the 3rd of July...........

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[deltadog03]

BTW, we are in the day 4-7 gfs uncertain zone.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Loop of the incoming 18z GFS run - - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Summary of the 18z GFS run - Bertha moves WNW until reaching about 63W. At this point the storm moves NW in response to the trough lifting out to the north. Bertha misses the trough and in turn stalls in the vicinity of 28N as the ridge builds back in. From hour 120 until hour 180 Bertha sits and slowly drifts erratically around the area just NE of the bahamas (26-29N, 67-70W). Then, near hour 192, a second trough luckily moves into the picture and lifts Bertha out to sea before it has a chance to reach the US. Bermuda, unfortunately, would likely still feel a significant impact.

My take - What is really interesting about this run is the fact that Bertha fails to be lifted out to sea with the first trough. If this actually plays out, then that means Bertha could find itself "stuck" somewhere east of the US and south of Bermuda. If that second trough doesn't come in to save the day at hour 192, then there is a chance that a storm in this position could try to creep back toward the east coast and cause havoc. It will be very interesting to see if the 00z run continues to show this interesting scenario...

[Derek Ortt]

don't even look at the 18Z GFS

it dissipates Bertha in 12 hours

next model please

[KWT]

I think the more northerly position and apparant decent development has to give more confidence in the 12z GFDL solution. Mean direction has been very close to the 12z GFDL forecast.

[Extremeweatherguy]

don't even look at the 18Z GFS

it dissipates Bertha in 12 hours

next model please

The 00z, 06z and 12z GFS runs all did the same exact thing...

18z - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_012l.gif

12z - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_018l.gif

06z - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024l.gif

00z - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_030l.gif

[Blown Away]

Now that it seems more likely Bertha recurves, it will be entertaining to watch Accuweather back off their Carolinas landfall.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Now that it seems more likely Bertha recurves, it will be entertaining to watch Accuweather back off their Carolinas landfall.

Joe Bastardi has done a pretty good job in the long run though. When this storm was first named he said he believed it would make it to the area near and just east of the Bahamas by 7-10 days out (this is when most models showed the storm recurving between 40-50W). As of right now, it looks like that call wasn't really too bad for being so far out, and Bertha will be getting pretty close to that zone he highlighted many days ago ( latest NHC track: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents ).

[MGC]

If the models are to verify, the ridge to Bertha's north had better start breaking down soon. As I gaze at the WV loop, I see the ridge that has been stearing Bertha to the W in lock step with her. Kinda almost looks like Dean and Felix last year. Models kept insisting on breaking down the ridge but it didn't happen. I just can't see Bertha passing to the east of Bermuda like a couple of the models are suggesting this afternoon. I would not be surprised to see a shift to the left in track guidance down the road. Kind of having flashbacks when the NHC insisted on taking Katrina NW when she decided to go SW. Models have a horrible poleward bias that have been there for years with CV hurricanes...Georges, Ivan, ect......MGC

[vacanechaser]

Now that it seems more likely Bertha recurves, it will be entertaining to watch Accuweather back off their Carolinas landfall.

Joe Bastardi has done a pretty good job in the long run though. When this storm was first named he said he believed it would make it to the area near and just east of the Bahamas by 7-10 days out (this is when most models showed the storm recurving between 40-50W). As of right now, it looks like that call wasn't really too bad for being so far out, and Bertha will be getting pretty close to that zone he highlighted many days ago ( http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents ).

people here just love to bash him... at least he makes a forecast and sticks to it until hope is gone i guess.. he dont change with the models like a lot here do every time the model changes



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Aric Dunn]

don't even look at the 18Z GFS

it dissipates Bertha in 12 hours

next model please

its the synoptics... not he intensity thats important when looking at the gfs..

[Ivanhater]

If the models are to verify, the ridge to Bertha's north had better start breaking down soon. As I gaze at the WV loop, I see the ridge that has been stearing Bertha to the W in lock step with her. Kinda almost looks like Dean and Felix last year. Models kept insisting on breaking down the ridge but it didn't happen. I just can't see Bertha passing to the east of Bermuda like a couple of the models are suggesting this afternoon. I would not be surprised to see a shift to the left in track guidance down the road. Kind of having flashbacks when the NHC insisted on taking Katrina NW when she decided to go SW. Models have a horrible poleward bias that have been there for years with CV hurricanes...Georges, Ivan, ect......MGC

Great insight MGC...its good to look at the models, but you still have to look at what is going on around the storm and compare that to what the models are showing...

[jrod]

If she does what Felix and Dean did last year I will be eating crow. My parents live on the intra coastal and I told they have nothing to worry about with Bertha.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Summary of the 18z GFS run (for what its worth) - Bertha moves WNW until reaching about 63W. At this point the storm moves NW in response to the trough lifting out to the north. Bertha misses the trough and in turn stalls in the vicinity of 28N as the ridge builds back in. From hour 120 until hour 180 Bertha sits and slowly drifts erratically around the area just NE of the bahamas (26-29N, 67-70W). Then, near hour 192, a second trough luckily moves into the picture and lifts Bertha out to sea before it has a chance to reach the US. Bermuda, unfortunately, would likely still feel a significant impact.

My take - What is really interesting about this run is the fact that Bertha fails to be lifted out to sea with the first trough. If this actually plays out, then that means Bertha could find itself "stuck" somewhere east of the US and south of Bermuda. If that second trough doesn't come in to save the day at hour 192, then there is a chance that a storm in this position could try to creep back toward the east coast and cause havoc. It will be very interesting to see if the 00z run continues to show this interesting scenario...

(medium resolution loop: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml )