Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs

[Ivanhater]

Are we still looking at the possibility of the trough not fully picking Bertha up and her stalling while the high pushes her back west?

[KWT]

Hmmm I'm not sure to be honest Ivanhater I haven't really seen the models in the last 24hrs however we did see the upper trough being slightly over-egged by some of the models and if it doesn't pick up as much strength its still possible.

I personally think its going to pick up enough latitude to be able to find the exit path.

[Derek Ortt]

oh boy

latest NCEP globl has this as an open wave

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[AlanKL]

Your prognostication and experience in these matters are greatly appreciated. I'm scheduled to leave on a cruise with Royal Caribbean from NYC (actually New Jersey) Sat July 12 at 5Pm arriving in Bermuda 9am July 14th(Monday). Should my wife and I change our plans and go horseback riding in Arizona?

[KWT]

Clearly Derek the models aren't going to be able to handle the strength of this system and this is going to make possible track errors if the models progs a weaker system they could be too far west then I take it?

[zaqxsw75050]

I just have a question about model showing the system as open wave. Could it be the system is not big and fast moving (have lighter west wind) and the map is not detail enough to display the true strength? Just a guess from a noob... If anyone know why the model underestimate the strength so much I would appreciate the answer.

[jlauderdal]

oh boy

latest NCEP globl has this as an open wave

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

maybe the ukmet was on to something, time will tell

[jinftl]

I work for a cruiseline...my advice....don't change your plans....the cruiseline will be on top of the weather situation and will not steer a ship into a storm. If the storm threatens Bermuda, most likely they will try and re-route the ship to some different ports....a cancellation of the entire trip would only happen if the departure port....for you being New Jersey (Cape Liberty I am assuming)...was under the gun with Bertha.

Each cruise company has departments devoted to itinerary planning, and this includes weather issues....they will let you know for sure if anything is an issue.

Your prognostication and experience in these matters are greatly appreciated. I'm scheduled to leave on a cruise with Royal Caribbean from NYC (actually New Jersey) Sat July 12 at 5Pm arriving in Bermuda 9am July 14th(Monday). Should my wife and I change our plans and go horseback riding in Arizona?

[KWT]

jlauderdal, I think the model is not at all likely, given its now entering more favorable conditions and warmer waters theres no real reason why it should weaken like that, sure there is a little bit of shear further but not much more then what has already been had by this systems.

Global models should only rarely be used as a guide to strength and usually in weak storms.

[Frank2]

Apparently Bertha is back to a WNW heading:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

it seems to be crossing 18N at this time, so, perhaps the turn shown by most models might come sooner than later...

[KWT]

Frank, this is still getting sheared a little, center was estimated down at 17.2N a few hours ago, I'm going to guess that its a little further north now but even then its not at 18N yet I think!

[Ivanhater]

06z GFS Esembles..odd

[KWT]

All have a very southerly track, must be missing the trough diving down I suppose thanks to the lower resolution. Some very curious tracks in there.

[vacanechaser]

Frank, this is still getting sheared a little, center was estimated down at 17.2N a few hours ago, I'm going to guess that its a little further north now but even then its not at 18N yet I think!

not to mention every time one of these things wobble, we get the its making a turn business... they wobble around- they do not continue to make a straight line through the atlantic... you have to take the general motion over several hours and come up with the foward motion... thought you would know that-since you worked at the nhc.... a few frames wnw does not mean any turn has begun yet...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Frank2]

KWT,

Thanks - it seems to be getting sheared a bit from the east, as it seems there is an exposed LLC to the east of the convection...

P.S. Since your on that side of the ocean (LOL) - I was watching live coverage of the Tour de France this morning - warm, breezy and light showers in the Brittany area of France (a Norway cyclist won today's stage) - perhaps Bertha will head that way in 8-10 days or so...

[vacanechaser]

All have a very southerly track, must be missing the trough diving down I suppose thanks to the lower resolution. Some very curious tracks in there.

i keep seeing people say do to the low res.... however, have i not herd that the ensambles usually do better than the operational gfs?? basically because it takes in to consideration all possible scenarios and comes up with the most plausable out come... just a question..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[KWT]

Maybe Frank, one way or the other it will probably end up over here in terms of its energy. If its active in terms of Cape Verde systems this season then we probably will get a few remains.

[Frank2]

not to mention every time one of these things wobble, we get the its making a turn business... they wobble around- they do not continue to make a straight line through the atlantic... you have to take the general motion over several hours and come up with the foward motion... thought you would know that-since you worked at the nhc.... a few frames wnw does not mean any turn has begun yet...

Actually, I mentioned it because it seems to be more than a wobble, but, even the old group I worked for sometimes got a case of the wobbles, too - Hurricane Allen (1980) was a fine example - everyone almost had a heart attack when it seriously wobbled towards the Haitian peninsula, only to resume a WNW track...

Hurricane David (1979) was another case - it wobbled towards the Dominican Republic - but kept wobbling, right across the island...

So, you never know, though you're right, wobbles are wobbles, but, I think Bertha is now back on a WNW course full-time (per the models)...

[Andrew92]

OK, I know Derek mentioned the NCEP global hopping the dissipation bandwagon that the UKMET started. Is this every model following suit or is the ridge supposed to be a lot stronger than forecast?

-Andrew92

[cheezyWXguy]

not to mention every time one of these things wobble, we get the its making a turn business... they wobble around- they do not continue to make a straight line through the atlantic... you have to take the general motion over several hours and come up with the foward motion... thought you would know that-since you worked at the nhc.... a few frames wnw does not mean any turn has begun yet...

Actually, I mentioned it because it seems to be more than a wobble, but, even the old group I worked for sometimes got a case of the wobbles, too - Hurricane Allen (1980) was a fine example - everyone almost had a heart attack when it seriously wobbled towards the Haitian peninsula, only to resume a WNW track...

Hurricane David (1979) was another case - it wobble towards the Dominican Republic - but kept wobbling, right across the island...

So, you never know, though you're right, wobbles are wobbles, but, I think Bertha is now back on a WNW course full-time (per the models)...

actually, it looks to have resumed a more westward motion in the last few frames...I think it was really just the illusion of the convection getting pushed north