Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs

[KWT]

Indeed thunder your right. However the models are not all that good in predicting tropical system simply because the resolution isn't all that good. I remember the GFS had major hurricane Dean last year as an open wave!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Most of the models keep Bertha at or above tropical storm strength through day 5...

[Aric Dunn]

Indeed thunder your right. However the models are not all that good in predicting tropical system simply because the resolution isn't all that good. I remember the GFS had major hurricane Dean last year as an open wave!

i was not going to say anything .. cause im sick of repeating it over and over .. but your right KWT .. felix is another good example.. its not the intensity you all should be looking at in any of the models past 24 hours or so ... its the synoptics that are important at this point..

[KWT]

Yep most of the models keep this in the TS range for strength, its only really the GFDL that strengthens this into a hurricane for any length of time. We shall have to wait and see won't we!

[vacanechaser]

Indeed thunder your right. However the models are not all that good in predicting tropical system simply because the resolution isn't all that good. I remember the GFS had major hurricane Dean last year as an open wave!

i was not going to say anything .. cause im sick of repeating it over and over .. but your right KWT .. felix is another good example.. its not the intensity you all should be looking at in any of the models past 24 hours or so ... its the synoptics that are important at this point..

the thing that gets me is how we go through this every year... lol...seems like with the same folks..

anyway, even though the gfs turns it north short of the coast means nothing... lets just remember yesterday!! everyone said its out of here before it gets west of 60w... now thats changing... everyone needs to settle down about it right now... someone says its outta here with every run.. not to mention the intensity... these models are not perfect.... lets remember they were created by humans... lets see what happens in about 2-3 days...

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Steve]

>>...yesterday, everyone said its out of here before it gets west of 60w

Not everyone was buying the typical US generated model b.s. , although many posters were.

Steve

[vacanechaser]

>>...yesterday, everyone said its out of here before it gets west of 60w

Not everyone was buying the typical US generated model b.s. , although many posters were.

Steve

lol... sorry, eveyone is a broad statement!!! but i think you catch my drift!!


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[storms in NC]

I always said 20 before the 50 is out to sea. But not alway true but most of the time. It is so far out at this time I would give it a few more days and see what happens then.

[cycloneye]

GFDL in its 18z run is going the most farthest west ever with Bertha tracking to 65w after reaching 60w at the 12z run.Almost tracks thru the herbert box 20n-60w area.

WHXX04 KWBC 042332
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA 02L

INITIAL TIME 18Z JUL 4

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 15.2 31.0 290./15.9
6 15.6 32.5 287./15.2
12 16.0 34.5 281./20.0
18 16.2 36.4 277./17.9
24 16.5 38.0 277./16.0
30 16.8 40.0 280./19.2
36 17.2 42.0 280./19.5
42 17.6 44.4 280./23.6
48 18.0 46.8 280./22.7
54 18.2 49.1 276./21.9
60 18.4 51.1 275./19.2
66 18.6 52.8 278./16.9
72 19.0 54.4 283./15.2
78 19.5 55.9 290./14.7
84 20.0 57.5 285./15.8
90 20.4 58.9 285./13.9
96 20.8 60.3 288./14.0
102 21.5 61.3 305./11.1
108 22.1 62.5 298./12.8
114 23.1 63.4 317./13.5
120 23.7 64.7 293./12.7
126 24.4 65.6 309./10.6

[Aric Dunn]

wow big shift from the gfdl ...

18z 102hrs



12z 102 hrs

[Aric Dunn]

looks very similar the gfs actaully .. its weaker though.

[KWT]

Hmmm the GFDL run is getting a little close to the USA for comfort on that run, also would mean recon would be likely if it got that far west as well.

GFDL also MUCH weaker as well this run, back to open wave, first time we've seen that model weaken this system as well, probably why its much further west.

[ronjon]

From HPC this afternoon:

TS BERTHA TO TRACK NWWD OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS REMAINING WELL SEAWARD OF CONUS. VERY LARGE TRACK SPREAD SHOWING UP IN GLOBAL AND
HURRICANE GUIDANCE RUNS AFTER DAY 5. HPC/NHC COORDINATION RELECTING A MORE SOUTH AND WWD SHIFT OF SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS.LONGER TERM UPSTREAM MID LEVEL PATTERN OVER CONUS UNCERTAIN WITH POOR CONTINUITY OF RECENT RUNS. PREFERENCE OF A MEAN WRN CONUS
TROF AND W ATLC/SERN CONUS RIDGING REMAINS SIMILAR TO ECMWF AND GFS ENS MEANS.

[Aric Dunn]

Hmmm the GFDL run is getting a little close to the USA for comfort on that run, also would mean recon would be likely if it got that far west as well.

GFDL also MUCH weaker as well this run, back to open wave, first time we've seen that model weaken this system as well, probably why its much further west.

when you look at the nested its actually not opened..

[KWT]

Do you have a link to the nested run, even if its not open its still a weak system from the looks of things.

[fci]

I wonder if Bertha can make it as far west as Florida.Its a big long shot and way to early to tell. Shear will probably rip the guts out of Bertha anyway in this part of the world.

IMO, VERY long way to go and too far north to be an issue for our part of Florida.

[Aric Dunn]

Do you have a link to the nested run, even if its not open its still a weak system from the looks of things.

yeah it weaker ..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... page.shtml

[vacanechaser]

Do you have a link to the nested run, even if its not open its still a weak system from the looks of things.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/hwrf_nested/storm_1/00/index_hwrf_nestedpage.shtml




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[KWT]

Interestingly it strengthens Bertha again towards the end of the run, I guess it hits more favorable conditions as it moves away from the TUTT. Thanks!

[cycloneye]

Although,weaker in this 18z run,GFDL still has a hurricane in the ladder part.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation