New Vortex

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Derek Ortt

New Vortex

#1 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Jul 09, 2003 2:37 am

has 85KT FL winds in northern semi-circle; however, pressure has risen to 1004mb. Thus, this likely will not be upgraded to a hurricane at 5 a.m. and these winds may be somewhat transient as the system begins to feel the effects of the shear
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Colin
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#2 Postby Colin » Wed Jul 09, 2003 10:16 am

Thanks for the update, Derek...but I think it'll be upgraded to a Hurricane sometime today. ;)
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Air Force Met
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#3 Postby Air Force Met » Wed Jul 09, 2003 10:42 am

I believe I can speak with great confidence that there is no way that will happen today. No way, no how. It will remain a TS as long as the LLC remains...but no hurricane today...and probably not tomorrow if it doesn't slow down to less than 15 kts.
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Derek Ortt

#4 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Jul 09, 2003 4:41 pm

Future vortex messages did prove the transitory nature of those winds. Similar events have occurred in previous tropical cyclones (Barry, 1995, Debby 2000, Chantal 2001 are good examples). Usually, with the very high pressures (>1000mb), if there are 80+ 850mb winds, these are local, transient events and will quickly weaken back to more reasonable values, as happened with this one
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Rainband

#5 Postby Rainband » Wed Jul 09, 2003 4:46 pm

Air Force Met wrote:I believe I can speak with great confidence that there is no way that will happen today. No way, no how. It will remain a TS as long as the LLC remains...but no hurricane today...and probably not tomorrow if it doesn't slow down to less than 15 kts.
With all due respect..nothing so far this season has followed the parameters of tropical cyclone genesis and tracking for that matter..so It is a guessing game..even for those with superior knowledge and understanding. Take a step back and look..guidelines are being rewritten this season and you don't have to be a "pro" to see that :wink:
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