Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs
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Question.
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%)
Whats is/causes difference between those three? What does the 25/30/35kt mean?
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%)
Whats is/causes difference between those three? What does the 25/30/35kt mean?
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- brunota2003
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- cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Models Thread
I have the same question about that.Maybe a pro met can answer this.
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Re:
Chacor wrote:Not necessarily. At least, I don't find it weird. Perhaps there are factors the index detected that the model feels would not let Bertha strengthen more than a certain amount? I don't know.
Must be. They were much closer together for Alma.
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 76% is 6.1 times the sample mean(12.5%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 55% is 6.6 times the sample mean( 8.3%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 34% is 5.9 times the sample mean( 5.8%)
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- Blown Away
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Models Thread
cycloneye wrote:18z GFDL:
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA 02L
INITIAL TIME 18Z JUL 3
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 13.3 25.1 285./ 9.9
6 13.8 26.5 289./14.4
12 13.9 28.0 274./14.3
18 14.3 29.4 288./14.7
24 15.3 31.0 301./18.6
30 15.9 33.2 286./21.9
36 16.1 35.2 275./19.1
42 16.3 37.2 276./18.9
48 16.5 39.1 276./19.0
54 16.9 40.9 280./17.4
60 17.4 42.8 285./18.7
66 18.1 44.9 290./21.1
72 18.8 46.6 292./18.2
78 19.5 48.0 298./14.6
84 20.4 49.3 304./15.2
90 21.3 50.3 311./12.9
96 22.0 51.2 308./11.1
102 22.8 51.7 326./ 8.7
108 23.8 52.4 328./11.6
114 24.8 52.9 332./11.3
120 25.6 53.6 322./10.1
126 26.4 53.9 339./ 8.0
[/b]
GFDL has Bertha moving almost 22kt in 24 hours, she is moving near 11kt rate now. Difficult to see such a rapid increase in forward speed in 24 hours. Bertha will have to pick up some serious speed to catch the weakness, IMO.
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- Extremeweatherguy
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Models Thread
The 11pm NHC forecast track is pretty far north of the current model consensus (indicated by the grey line in the following image)...
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_02.gif
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_02.gif
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- cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Models Thread
Definitly the 00z GFS has shifted more west than the previous run.It has Bertha almost at 60w.


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- cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Models Thread
It almost look like stalled in that area of 23n-57w.


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- cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Models Thread
Look at this now,It almost reaches 60w.Bermuda watch out.


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- Ivanhater
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Models Thread
This trend is interesting..all models have been shifting and continue to do so..I suspect by tomorrow Bermuda will be in the path, then from there who knows...
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- gatorcane
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Models Thread
well the westward shift is of no surprise. The weakness between the ridges as I pointed out earlier today is just so small and the GFS is deepening Bertha far too quickly. Still expecting models to shift left....
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The reason why the GFS shifts westward beyond the 7 day range forecast is because it forecast, as the euro has been coming out with, for the weakness to lift out by day 5 or 6 and to make a left turn towards Bermuda before the GFS forecasts another weakness or trough to pick it up once again by day 11 or 12, between days 5 and 10 it only moves it just a couple hundred miles.
This is getting more and more interesting, and at the end we could see something very similar or a blend of the euro's and ukmet runs with the rest of the models.
This is getting more and more interesting, and at the end we could see something very similar or a blend of the euro's and ukmet runs with the rest of the models.
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