A question for the Independent Weather forecast team...

[Steve]

Hey guys. One of the things you put out in your forecast was the lack of Gulf of Mexico named storm activity in years following 6 or more storms in the Gulf. Assuming that Claudette will get into the Gulf (BOC or otherwise), that would put it tied for the maxium with '2' in the period that you studied. In my outlook, I called for at least 5 named storms in the Gulf this year - primarily due to what I perceived to be the orientation or ridging and high pressure in the Atlantic Ocean.

So what I want to know is, what are your thoughts on this now? While your climatology favors no more storms apparently after Claudette in the Gulf, would you just consider 2003 an aberrational year (which we all know it kind of is anyway) compared to the previous sampling?

Steve

[cycloneye]

And also about the MJO factor that both of you aluded to as being at positive MJO until late july that means unfavorable conditions but 2 tropical storms and TD#2 formed.

How all of this has changed the MJO projections now and what is the new MJO timeframe for the rest of the season?

[Rainband]

Ok I will bite too.. What about this being an east coast season..If waves coming off africa are at lower lattitudes like claudette was and this trend continues... wouldn't this also increase the number of storms that get into the GOM via the caribbean?? & decrease east coast storms??? :? Making this an active GOM season????? :?

[GalvestonDuck]

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

Hurricane history is Greek to me, regardless of what happened last year, or which was an east coast season and which was a GOM season or whatever.

The first and worst storm of 1900 originated in late August out in the Atlantic. Mother Nature didn't have to take a statistics course.

"And that's all I have to say about that." - Forrest Gump

[Stormsfury]

Ummm... guys, slow down here ...

It's only the beginning of July and we're seeing some strange quirks and things going totally against climatology ... in which, after an active GOM season (numbering 6, the most GOM storms afterwards was 2) ...

Remember, and I hate to use the words "climatologically speaking" in regards to 2003 ... but the East Coast season doesn't usually start up until August ...

Look at the overall longwave pattern with flat ridges extending from the GOM back into the Atlantic ... there's not many troughs extending too far south ... typically this is a pattern you would see in July, but not with all these out of whack storms brewing up ...

This is a clear reminder that Mother Nature is in control and she's throwing some serious 5 foot curveballs at us this year ...

SF

[Rainband]

Ummm... guys, slow down here ...

It's only the beginning of July and we're seeing some strange quirks and things going totally against climatology ... in which, after an active GOM season (numbering 6, the most GOM storms afterwards was 2) ...

Remember, and I hate to use the words "climatologically speaking" in regards to 2003 ... but the East Coast season doesn't usually start up until August ...

Look at the overall longwave pattern with flat ridges extending from the GOM back into the Atlantic ... there's not many troughs extending too far south ... typically this is a pattern you would see in July, but not with all these out of whack storms brewing up ...

This is a clear reminder that Mother Nature is in control and she's throwing some serious 5 foot curveballs at us this year ...

SF

Guidelines for tropical cyclone genisis and tracks are being rewritten plain and simple..pretty cool huh??